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Stole this from Gaytors 247 site. Roster Breakdown

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MizCane

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Dec 6, 2012
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Disclaimer This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome, it is a talent evaluation that forms the starting point to determine where some of the potential match ups advantages and disadvantages might be during the game, and thus impact the game planning for both teams.

Starting Players:
Lots of changes for both teams from where things ended in 2018. New starters are shown blue...user generated
Roster & Experience Analysis
  • Florida's average Experience Level is 96% (96% on offensive and 96% on defense), which indicates that Florida is playing mostly Junior level talent. Florida has 1 Freshman in the starting lineup and 3 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Florida is replacing 5 starers on offense (Perine is not counted as a replacement because he had more carries last year of all the backs) and just 3 starters on defense (Wilson is not counted since he started all of 2017 and both games in 2018 before his injury)
  • Miami's Experience level is also 94% (91% Offense and 96% Defense) which indicates that they are rated slightly under the Junior level of experience. They have 3 Freshman starters and 5 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Miami has 7 starters being replaced on offense, including most of the skill positions (QB, HB, and WR). On defense, they are replacing 4 starters, most notably in the secondary (safety positions).
Position Group Analysis
  • The purpose of this analysis is to break down the starting rosters into units (WR, DB, DL, OL, Front 7) and then try to determine which of these units have an advantage against their opposing unit.
  • To achieve this, we group the units into 2 major Position Groups: Passing Game (WR vs DB) & Rushing Game (OL vs Front 7). We do this for both teams, on both sides of the ball. Then we can factor in the skill positions, QB & HB, to determine if they can make a difference in the match up.
  • Here are the Units, Groups, and Match Ups:user generated
  • Analysis of Position GroupOverall, Miami has a slight advantage in the Raw Ratings, but because Florida holds the experience advantage, the Adjusted Ratings favor the Gators. The Gators have a decent advantage on offense, mostly influenced by the sizable advantage (>0.099) in the passing game, that is almost the differential between an average 4* recruit and an average 3* recruit. On defense, the gators have a slight rating advantage overall, but not enough (< 0.025) to give a discernible edge to either way. However, the Gator's defense front does have the advantage over the Miami Offensive Line (which has a similar rate to what the Gators had in 2016).
  • Florida's Receivers (0.954 ADJ) vs Miami's Secondary (0.855 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to create separation in passing game.
  • Florida's Defensive Front (0.849 ADJ) vs Miami's Offensive Line (0.795 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to limit what Miami is able to in the rushing game.
  • Miami's Defensive Front (0.881 ADJ) vs Florida's Offensive Line (0.820 ADJ) should favor Miami's ability to limit what Florida is able to in the rushing game.
Get to know your Opponent:
  • Miami's offense ranked #105 in 2018 (Florida's offense ranked #42) averaging 359 yards per game with 167 yards passing & 192 yards rushing. Last year, Miami was a heavy run team with 58% of the play calling favoring the run. With a new offensive coordinator (Dan Enos - QB Coach at Alabama last year) that could change as he has a very good track record with quarterbacks. If Enos is able to improve the QB situation at Miami like Mullen did at Florida, this offense should be significantly improved. However, he will be likely working with a freshman QB with no starting experience behind an offensive line with 4 new starters.
  • Miami's defense ranked #2 in 2018 (Florida's defense ranked #26) allowing just 268 yards per game , giving up 141 yards passing & 127 yards rushing. As the ratings indicate, this is a very good defense, but the question is how good? During the 2018 season, Miami didn't face any offenses that were ranked in the Top 25 and only faced two offenses ranked in the Top 50. Now, that doesn't mean that Miami's defense is grossly over rated, but it might indicate that they are slightly over rated. In the 2018 season opener against LSU, the Miami defense did hold LSU to under 300 yards of total offense and under 4.0 YPC rushing, so this is going to be a formidable defense.
What will it take for the Gators to win?
On offense, Florida's biggest question mark is going to be the performance of the offensive line, especially given they will be matched up against the strength of Miami's entire team (defensive front). This game will pretty much be the story of Florida's 2019 season....has Franks improved enough as a down field passer to help take the pressure off the offensive line and force the defense to respect the pass? If defenses do not have to respect his ability to pass (intermediate passes and deep passes) and can crowd the box to stop the run, that might just be too much pressure for a young and inexperienced offensive line to handle.
  • Offensively for Florida - Expect Florida to take some deep shots early in the game and take advantage of the 3 new starters Miami will likely have in the secondary, two of which are underclassman. All of Florida's offensive skill positions are returning from 2018 (QB, HB, and WR) and that is a position group they are going to have to take advantage of. Given the inexperience of the offensive line, I would expect Florida to be able to average between 3.25 - 3.75 YPC rushing the ball against the Miami Front 7. Florida is going to have to win this game by setting the tone with the passing game, in order to create some space for the rushing game.
On defense, the only question mark I have is Dean's transition to Star, especially against teams that are expected to run the ball heavy. Last year, Gardner transitioned from Safety to Star (which is pretty much a 3rd safety) and he improved significantly in his run support (over 2017). Dean performed well last year as a freshman corner, but there is not a lot of run support action coming from corners and it has yet to be seen if an undersized Dean (who is 3 inches taller and almost 20 lbs lighter than Gardner) can step into the box and make that impact in stopping the run. I would not be surprised to see Miller (or Houston) in the game on run downs as a Linebacker with Burney shifting in to that "Star" position .
  • Defensively for Florida - Florida's secondary should be able to hold their own over Miami's receivers, which means the Florida defensive front is going to have to limit Miami's rushing attack on early downs....forcing Miami into 3rd and long situations. Expect to see Henderson, Wilson and Dean isolated in coverage most of the game. I'm sure we can expect to see Grantham dial up a lot of blitzes to rattle a first time starting quarterback and inexperienced offensive line.

My Prediction:
Given that I will be attending this game and this will be my daughter's (8 years old) first time every attending a football game, I predict that the Gators will not let us down and will win the day!
  • Florida Wins: 24 - 14
 
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Kn[]_[]ckles3o5 said:
This information has been presented and discussed already. It is mostly bull**** that neglects to factor in actual on field production and only accounts for high school rating and age. It is not an accurate representation of either roster and skews the narrative towards the gators.
Click to expand...

Ever heard the saying 'don't kill the messenger?" Relax
 
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brock said:
What is the formula for adjusted ratings? That doesn’t make any sense
Click to expand...

Pts are deducted based on seniority. So only a senior gets their full pre college croot ranking. Otherwise pts are deducted. That's how Mike Pinckney is an .86.
 
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Raw Rating x (experience factor rating) ÷ move to Star squared =**** the Turds.
 
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I hope the dude who wrote that BS analysis has good parenting skills because his daughter will be distraught after attending her first game....
 
MizCane said:
Disclaimer This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome, it is a talent evaluation that forms the starting point to determine where some of the potential match ups advantages and disadvantages might be during the game, and thus impact the game planning for both teams.

Starting Players:
Lots of changes for both teams from where things ended in 2018. New starters are shown blue...user generated
Roster & Experience Analysis
  • Florida's average Experience Level is 96% (96% on offensive and 96% on defense), which indicates that Florida is playing mostly Junior level talent. Florida has 1 Freshman in the starting lineup and 3 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Florida is replacing 5 starers on offense (Perine is not counted as a replacement because he had more carries last year of all the backs) and just 3 starters on defense (Wilson is not counted since he started all of 2017 and both games in 2018 before his injury)
  • Miami's Experience level is also 94% (91% Offense and 96% Defense) which indicates that they are rated slightly under the Junior level of experience. They have 3 Freshman starters and 5 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Miami has 7 starters being replaced on offense, including most of the skill positions (QB, HB, and WR). On defense, they are replacing 4 starters, most notably in the secondary (safety positions).
Position Group Analysis
  • The purpose of this analysis is to break down the starting rosters into units (WR, DB, DL, OL, Front 7) and then try to determine which of these units have an advantage against their opposing unit.
  • To achieve this, we group the units into 2 major Position Groups: Passing Game (WR vs DB) & Rushing Game (OL vs Front 7). We do this for both teams, on both sides of the ball. Then we can factor in the skill positions, QB & HB, to determine if they can make a difference in the match up.
  • Here are the Units, Groups, and Match Ups:user generated
  • Analysis of Position GroupOverall, Miami has a slight advantage in the Raw Ratings, but because Florida holds the experience advantage, the Adjusted Ratings favor the Gators. The Gators have a decent advantage on offense, mostly influenced by the sizable advantage (>0.099) in the passing game, that is almost the differential between an average 4* recruit and an average 3* recruit. On defense, the gators have a slight rating advantage overall, but not enough (< 0.025) to give a discernible edge to either way. However, the Gator's defense front does have the advantage over the Miami Offensive Line (which has a similar rate to what the Gators had in 2016).
  • Florida's Receivers (0.954 ADJ) vs Miami's Secondary (0.855 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to create separation in passing game.
  • Florida's Defensive Front (0.849 ADJ) vs Miami's Offensive Line (0.795 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to limit what Miami is able to in the rushing game.
  • Miami's Defensive Front (0.881 ADJ) vs Florida's Offensive Line (0.820 ADJ) should favor Miami's ability to limit what Florida is able to in the rushing game.
Get to know your Opponent:
  • Miami's offense ranked #105 in 2018 (Florida's offense ranked #42) averaging 359 yards per game with 167 yards passing & 192 yards rushing. Last year, Miami was a heavy run team with 58% of the play calling favoring the run. With a new offensive coordinator (Dan Enos - QB Coach at Alabama last year) that could change as he has a very good track record with quarterbacks. If Enos is able to improve the QB situation at Miami like Mullen did at Florida, this offense should be significantly improved. However, he will be likely working with a freshman QB with no starting experience behind an offensive line with 4 new starters.
  • Miami's defense ranked #2 in 2018 (Florida's defense ranked #26) allowing just 268 yards per game , giving up 141 yards passing & 127 yards rushing. As the ratings indicate, this is a very good defense, but the question is how good? During the 2018 season, Miami didn't face any offenses that were ranked in the Top 25 and only faced two offenses ranked in the Top 50. Now, that doesn't mean that Miami's defense is grossly over rated, but it might indicate that they are slightly over rated. In the 2018 season opener against LSU, the Miami defense did hold LSU to under 300 yards of total offense and under 4.0 YPC rushing, so this is going to be a formidable defense.
What will it take for the Gators to win?
On offense, Florida's biggest question mark is going to be the performance of the offensive line, especially given they will be matched up against the strength of Miami's entire team (defensive front). This game will pretty much be the story of Florida's 2019 season....has Franks improved enough as a down field passer to help take the pressure off the offensive line and force the defense to respect the pass? If defenses do not have to respect his ability to pass (intermediate passes and deep passes) and can crowd the box to stop the run, that might just be too much pressure for a young and inexperienced offensive line to handle.
  • Offensively for Florida - Expect Florida to take some deep shots early in the game and take advantage of the 3 new starters Miami will likely have in the secondary, two of which are underclassman. All of Florida's offensive skill positions are returning from 2018 (QB, HB, and WR) and that is a position group they are going to have to take advantage of. Given the inexperience of the offensive line, I would expect Florida to be able to average between 3.25 - 3.75 YPC rushing the ball against the Miami Front 7. Florida is going to have to win this game by setting the tone with the passing game, in order to create some space for the rushing game.
On defense, the only question mark I have is Dean's transition to Star, especially against teams that are expected to run the ball heavy. Last year, Gardner transitioned from Safety to Star (which is pretty much a 3rd safety) and he improved significantly in his run support (over 2017). Dean performed well last year as a freshman corner, but there is not a lot of run support action coming from corners and it has yet to be seen if an undersized Dean (who is 3 inches taller and almost 20 lbs lighter than Gardner) can step into the box and make that impact in stopping the run. I would not be surprised to see Miller (or Houston) in the game on run downs as a Linebacker with Burney shifting in to that "Star" position .
  • Defensively for Florida - Florida's secondary should be able to hold their own over Miami's receivers, which means the Florida defensive front is going to have to limit Miami's rushing attack on early downs....forcing Miami into 3rd and long situations. Expect to see Henderson, Wilson and Dean isolated in coverage most of the game. I'm sure we can expect to see Grantham dial up a lot of blitzes to rattle a first time starting quarterback and inexperienced offensive line.

My Prediction:
Given that I will be attending this game and this will be my daughter's (8 years old) first time every attending a football game, I predict that the Gators will not let us down and will win the day!
  • Florida Wins: 24 - 14
Click to expand...
They may lose Jean Delance. He was seen walking on crutches. Manny need to get our DL to to put max pressure on their starting 5 guys to get to their backups. None are considered that good and may have to play walk ons and players switching position to add depth.
 
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Cribby said:
I just dropped an analytical breakdown in the toilet after eating Taco Bell, my first **** came out in a u shape and second one looked like a 7.

That plainly tells me it’s Miami by 7
Click to expand...

Similar experience this weekend...

After having a little too much to drink on Saturday and a seafood salad for dinner, I was looking for some much needed hydration Sunday morning while in dire straights. My wife accidentally brought me a Lemon Lime Gatorade from CVS (instead of Powerade... don't worry, we start counseling on Monday), which I unfortunately started drinking without noticing her error. Almost immediately after having that crap touch my lips, my stomach recoiled. I sprinted to my bathroom to vomit, but afterwards, when I looked down into the toilet bowl, I saw what was very clearly the shape of a dead barf-gator in the water. When I turned to the sink to wash up, the clock in the bathroom was incorrectly blinking 17:13.

There is only one way to interpret this sequence of events: a 17-13 Canes victory.
 
Last edited:
MizCane said:
Disclaimer This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome, it is a talent evaluation that forms the starting point to determine where some of the potential match ups advantages and disadvantages might be during the game, and thus impact the game planning for both teams.

Starting Players:
Lots of changes for both teams from where things ended in 2018. New starters are shown blue...user generated
Roster & Experience Analysis
  • Florida's average Experience Level is 96% (96% on offensive and 96% on defense), which indicates that Florida is playing mostly Junior level talent. Florida has 1 Freshman in the starting lineup and 3 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Florida is replacing 5 starers on offense (Perine is not counted as a replacement because he had more carries last year of all the backs) and just 3 starters on defense (Wilson is not counted since he started all of 2017 and both games in 2018 before his injury)
  • Miami's Experience level is also 94% (91% Offense and 96% Defense) which indicates that they are rated slightly under the Junior level of experience. They have 3 Freshman starters and 5 Sophomores out of the 22 starting positions. Miami has 7 starters being replaced on offense, including most of the skill positions (QB, HB, and WR). On defense, they are replacing 4 starters, most notably in the secondary (safety positions).
Position Group Analysis
  • The purpose of this analysis is to break down the starting rosters into units (WR, DB, DL, OL, Front 7) and then try to determine which of these units have an advantage against their opposing unit.
  • To achieve this, we group the units into 2 major Position Groups: Passing Game (WR vs DB) & Rushing Game (OL vs Front 7). We do this for both teams, on both sides of the ball. Then we can factor in the skill positions, QB & HB, to determine if they can make a difference in the match up.
  • Here are the Units, Groups, and Match Ups:user generated
  • Analysis of Position GroupOverall, Miami has a slight advantage in the Raw Ratings, but because Florida holds the experience advantage, the Adjusted Ratings favor the Gators. The Gators have a decent advantage on offense, mostly influenced by the sizable advantage (>0.099) in the passing game, that is almost the differential between an average 4* recruit and an average 3* recruit. On defense, the gators have a slight rating advantage overall, but not enough (< 0.025) to give a discernible edge to either way. However, the Gator's defense front does have the advantage over the Miami Offensive Line (which has a similar rate to what the Gators had in 2016).
  • Florida's Receivers (0.954 ADJ) vs Miami's Secondary (0.855 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to create separation in passing game.
  • Florida's Defensive Front (0.849 ADJ) vs Miami's Offensive Line (0.795 ADJ) should favor Florida's ability to limit what Miami is able to in the rushing game.
  • Miami's Defensive Front (0.881 ADJ) vs Florida's Offensive Line (0.820 ADJ) should favor Miami's ability to limit what Florida is able to in the rushing game.
Get to know your Opponent:
  • Miami's offense ranked #105 in 2018 (Florida's offense ranked #42) averaging 359 yards per game with 167 yards passing & 192 yards rushing. Last year, Miami was a heavy run team with 58% of the play calling favoring the run. With a new offensive coordinator (Dan Enos - QB Coach at Alabama last year) that could change as he has a very good track record with quarterbacks. If Enos is able to improve the QB situation at Miami like Mullen did at Florida, this offense should be significantly improved. However, he will be likely working with a freshman QB with no starting experience behind an offensive line with 4 new starters.
  • Miami's defense ranked #2 in 2018 (Florida's defense ranked #26) allowing just 268 yards per game , giving up 141 yards passing & 127 yards rushing. As the ratings indicate, this is a very good defense, but the question is how good? During the 2018 season, Miami didn't face any offenses that were ranked in the Top 25 and only faced two offenses ranked in the Top 50. Now, that doesn't mean that Miami's defense is grossly over rated, but it might indicate that they are slightly over rated. In the 2018 season opener against LSU, the Miami defense did hold LSU to under 300 yards of total offense and under 4.0 YPC rushing, so this is going to be a formidable defense.
What will it take for the Gators to win?
On offense, Florida's biggest question mark is going to be the performance of the offensive line, especially given they will be matched up against the strength of Miami's entire team (defensive front). This game will pretty much be the story of Florida's 2019 season....has Franks improved enough as a down field passer to help take the pressure off the offensive line and force the defense to respect the pass? If defenses do not have to respect his ability to pass (intermediate passes and deep passes) and can crowd the box to stop the run, that might just be too much pressure for a young and inexperienced offensive line to handle.
  • Offensively for Florida - Expect Florida to take some deep shots early in the game and take advantage of the 3 new starters Miami will likely have in the secondary, two of which are underclassman. All of Florida's offensive skill positions are returning from 2018 (QB, HB, and WR) and that is a position group they are going to have to take advantage of. Given the inexperience of the offensive line, I would expect Florida to be able to average between 3.25 - 3.75 YPC rushing the ball against the Miami Front 7. Florida is going to have to win this game by setting the tone with the passing game, in order to create some space for the rushing game.
On defense, the only question mark I have is Dean's transition to Star, especially against teams that are expected to run the ball heavy. Last year, Gardner transitioned from Safety to Star (which is pretty much a 3rd safety) and he improved significantly in his run support (over 2017). Dean performed well last year as a freshman corner, but there is not a lot of run support action coming from corners and it has yet to be seen if an undersized Dean (who is 3 inches taller and almost 20 lbs lighter than Gardner) can step into the box and make that impact in stopping the run. I would not be surprised to see Miller (or Houston) in the game on run downs as a Linebacker with Burney shifting in to that "Star" position .
  • Defensively for Florida - Florida's secondary should be able to hold their own over Miami's receivers, which means the Florida defensive front is going to have to limit Miami's rushing attack on early downs....forcing Miami into 3rd and long situations. Expect to see Henderson, Wilson and Dean isolated in coverage most of the game. I'm sure we can expect to see Grantham dial up a lot of blitzes to rattle a first time starting quarterback and inexperienced offensive line.

My Prediction:
Given that I will be attending this game and this will be my daughter's (8 years old) first time every attending a football game, I predict that the Gators will not let us down and will win the day!
  • Florida Wins: 24 - 14
Click to expand...
How many points do we get for not having Richt calling plays on our offense? That has got to account for something.
 
Kn[]_[]ckles3o5 said:
This information has been presented and discussed already. It is mostly bull**** that neglects to factor in actual on field production and only accounts for high school rating and age. It is not an accurate representation of either roster and skews the narrative towards the gators.
Click to expand...

It also neglects our pass efficiency defense has been very good for several years. #1 last year
 
For some reason, UF fans insist on using recruiting ratings as the basis for all of their analysis/predictions/arguments. One thing that high school recruiting ratings do not take into consideration is the coaching that these kids receive once they get into college. Why would anyone base their predictions on how good a player was perceived to be years ago? It makes no sense but that's the Gaytor way.
 
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