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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
So do we see a Q4 crash only to see a 2027 rebound?

OR do we see an end to war, gas prices drop to earth, and we see a massive bounce in 2027.
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IMO, it somewhat depends on the election. Markets hate uncertainty. Gridlock, constant negativity in the news and unrealistic AI/data center fears won't help.
 
Any Visa or Mastercard shareholders?

I'm not as bullish. European Payment Network should be coming online in 2027 and could move 30 million users off of the V/MC payment networks. Discover/CapOne can also move lots of users and transactions off of V/MC.
 
JD08 said:
IMO, it somewhat depends on the election. Markets hate uncertainty. Gridlock, constant negativity in the news and unrealistic AI/data center fears won't help.
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Markets don't always hate gridlock. Republican Legislative and Democratic Executive branches have historically yielded the best returns. Likely there will be a slight selloff if the market is surprised by the results in November but the prices will return within a week.
 
Canedog said:
Gridlock, for lack of a better word, is good.

Gridlock is right.

Gridlock works.
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michael douglas GIF by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment
 
TheEye said:
Markets don't always hate gridlock. Republican Legislative and Democratic Executive branches have historically yielded the best returns. Likely there will be a slight selloff if the market is surprised by the results in November but the prices will return within a week.
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Canedog said:
Gridlock, for lack of a better word, is good.

Gridlock is right.

Gridlock works.
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Generally, I agree and point to Clinton/Gingrich as evidence. Has that level of cooperation happened since 2006?
 
Calinative said:
If I'm SpaceX I think what I'm doing is trying to buy Anterix/NextNav/OmniSpace/Viasat today.. or as many as you can first two would provide consolidated low band US coverage. Later two provide global coverage. Or they could/should just buy more Echostar spectrum. Then from there they could lease space on the towers to install their own 5G in urban areas to improve speeds.

Thing about T-Mobile is they are strongest big3. they're owned >50% by Deutsche Telekom out of Germany who have said they aren't selling, and if anything likely want to buy more. Also pretty sure they have the largest actual coverage in the US and would probably cost like >$300B? It's likely the best actual MNO to buy/merge with of course. If the plan was to buy a stake and get access that and just be an MVNO and be stronger partners, this would make a lot of short term sense.

verizon is probably 2nd best to acquire. And I'm pretty sure their spectrum ownership would fit in well, and it's a very pure MNO acquisition. At&t just has way too much debt. But I could see how At&t would make the most sense if that wasn't the case. They did spin off their media side recently I think, but their Fixed Broadband isjt useful imo. Though their contract as the emergency service provider actually imo first with Starlink nicely, but that also comes with strings attached and likely makes acquisition harder too...
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**** I listed companies that owned Nationwide Spectrum in the 900Mhz range. Think that ends up being too low for true mobile considerations/too slow speed, even though it penetrates walls best. Today SpaceX announced the acquisition of ~14 MHz of nationwide 800Mhz spectrum. This can maybe deliver 4Glte. Plus they just gained FCC approval for 15k Starlink mobile v2 sats for their DTC operation. So they now will have some 800MHz spectrum to go with their Echostar spectrum purchase (which they can actually use terrestrially as well).


 
Calinative said:
**** I listed companies that owned Nationwide Spectrum in the 900Mhz range. Think that ends up being too low for true mobile considerations/too slow speed, even though it penetrates walls best. Today SpaceX announced the acquisition of ~14 MHz of nationwide 800Mhz spectrum. This can maybe deliver 4Glte. Plus they just gained FCC approval for 15k Starlink mobile v2 sats for their DTC operation. So they now will have some 800MHz spectrum to go with their Echostar spectrum purchase (which they can actually use terrestrially as well).


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Lower frequencies do me more users and longer distances. SpaceX needs city bandwidth. IMO, they pair this with a merger or purchase of one of the big three.
 
Bond Markets are all pushing back.

Russia- 17% (up from 8% in 2022) - they failed to sell bonds at the rates they wanted and cancelled the sale.
Japan- 3% (up from 0% in 2022)
Germany - 3.5% (up from negatives in 2022)
UK- 5.5% (up from 1% in 2022)
USA- 5.25% (up from 1.75% in 2022) - the treasury has done the twist yet again.
Canada- 3.8% (up from 1.75% in 2022)

Not going to add China because I don't trust any data from that government.

If bonds keep going higher, we could see banks failing. This will impact the stock market as companies need funds and if Bonds keep rising, it is "risk free" returns compared to the higher risk stocks that maybe over their skis with AI investments. Then you have inflation from bonds, oil prices...
 
France - 3.7T Euros
0% in 2022 now close to 5%.
When corporate bonds pay better than government bonds, buyers move to corporate bonds if the risk is similar enough.

How does this impact the Stock Market? It slows the main street economy with higher rates, it increases corporate borrowing costs, it causes more defaults, it could lead to bank runs...
 
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