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mr.h said:
Musk warned of some rough quarters.
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It’s only logical too. Right now is a shift in priorities from Vehicle deliveries to self driving rollout that is expected to to take a year or so maybe 2 to be fully rolled out nationwide and hopefully internationally.

And this quarter is the end of the EV incentives for the $7,500 tax rebate which I’d imagine significantly pulls forward demand into Q3. And then because of that it only makes sense for them to delay the rollout of their cheaper Model Y by a quarter. Now maybe that means they can build up a stockpile and then when every other Ev loses their $7,500 incentive, Tesla is sitting there with by far the cheapest EV new and ready to be sold… but new product takes time to rollout and the other thing is they will be manufactured on the same lines as current model Ys. So really maybe they choose not to even create the stockpile because they usually only have 20-30 days of inventory. So really you should expect every Model 3/Y manufactured over next 2 months to be sold by end of EV credit. Manufacturing the cheaper version now would actually cost them money…

I’d expect Q3 deliveries and auto gross margins to be high, then Q4 and Q1 likely to be low. Plus the energy deliveries will likely slow growth for another quarter or two because their Lathrop plant is maxed out and Shanghai is just beginning to ramp (for their mega packs).

Literally all that matters for Tesla at this point that makes it a buy or sell is If you believe they will win Autonomy. If you think they do the stock has another double in it. Super long term if you think they will win in Robots it’s, it’s got another doubling…
 
Calinative said:
It’s only logical too. Right now is a shift in priorities from Vehicle deliveries to self driving rollout that is expected to to take a year or so maybe 2 to be fully rolled out nationwide and hopefully internationally.

And this quarter is the end of the EV incentives for the $7,500 tax rebate which I’d imagine significantly pulls forward demand into Q3. And then because of that it only makes sense for them to delay the rollout of their cheaper Model Y by a quarter. Now maybe that means they can build up a stockpile and then when every other Ev loses their $7,500 incentive, Tesla is sitting there with by far the cheapest EV new and ready to be sold… but new product takes time to rollout and the other thing is they will be manufactured on the same lines as current model Ys. So really maybe they choose not to even create the stockpile because they usually only have 20-30 days of inventory. So really you should expect every Model 3/Y manufactured over next 2 months to be sold by end of EV credit. Manufacturing the cheaper version now would actually cost them money…

I’d expect Q3 deliveries and auto gross margins to be high, then Q4 and Q1 likely to be low. Plus the energy deliveries will likely slow growth for another quarter or two because their Lathrop plant is maxed out and Shanghai is just beginning to ramp (for their mega packs).

Literally all that matters for Tesla at this point that makes it a buy or sell is If you believe they will win Autonomy. If you think they do the stock has another double in it. Super long term if you think they will win in Robots it’s, it’s got another doubling…
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I have FSD in my car. Used it yesterday on a road trip. It is 90% there. Only a handful of hiccups but the amount of data being collected will likely correct errors within the next year.
 
TheEye said:
I have FSD in my car. Used it yesterday on a road trip. It is 90% there. Only a handful of hiccups but the amount of data being collected will likely correct errors within the next year.
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... And do you know if you have HW3 or 4. Cause the HW4 customers have a more advanced version. And the version+features they have operating in the robotaxi service in Austin, are about to begin rolling out to customers soon as well (only HW4)....
 
Calinative said:
... And do you know if you have HW3 or 4. Cause the HW4 customers have a more advanced version. And the version+features they have operating in the robotaxi service in Austin, are about to begin rolling out to customers soon as well (only HW4)....
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It is HW4. The car is a month old now.
 
USD Durable Goods Orders (Jun)
-9.3% 0.51 -10.8% 16.5%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Jun)
-9.4% - - 15.7%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Jun)
0.2% 0.29 0.1% 0.6%
8:30 AM
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Jun)
-0.7% -3.63 0.2% 2%

Durable goods down bigly
 
Key earnings for this week
Monday, July 28
  • Waste Management (WM)
  • Nucor (NUE)
  • Whirlpool (WHR)
Tuesday, July 29
  • Visa (V)
  • Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • UnitedHealth (UNH)
  • Boeing (BA)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG)
  • Starbucks (SBUX)
  • UPS (UPS)
Wednesday, July 30
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Meta Platforms (META)
  • Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Ford (F)
Thursday, July 31
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Amazon.com (AMZN)
  • Mastercard (MA)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Coinbase Global (COIN)
Friday, August 1
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Chevron (CVX)
 
mr.h said:
Key earnings for this week
Monday, July 28
  • Waste Management (WM)
  • Nucor (NUE)
  • Whirlpool (WHR)
Tuesday, July 29
  • Visa (V)
  • Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • UnitedHealth (UNH)
  • Boeing (BA)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG)
  • Starbucks (SBUX)
  • UPS (UPS)
Wednesday, July 30
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Meta Platforms (META)
  • Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Ford (F)
Thursday, July 31
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Amazon.com (AMZN)
  • Mastercard (MA)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Coinbase Global (COIN)
Friday, August 1
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Chevron (CVX)
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You mean $BYON isn’t in here? lol I kid I kid.

Earnings Monday evening. Earnings call Tuesday.
 
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I was expecting a big pop from the EU news. I guess investors are still waiting on earnings.
 
signal-2025-07-28-160908.jpeg


The fixer Mr. Lemonis.
 
Wednesday is GDP and the Fed Rate decision..
I believe the Fed will keep interest rates the same [ which will **** off Trump], but there’s a change for a rate drop next meeting if inflation doesn’t rise
GDP should rise from a previous low number because of a decline in imports and an increase of consumer spending..
MSFT and META report after closing.
 
mr.h said:
Yahoo finance:

Job openings declined in June while hiring also decreased, according to government data released Tuesday. The report comes as investors closely watch for any signs of slowing in the labor market amid a debateover when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again.
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These kind of numbers help the case to lower rates next month. Inflation numbers may cloud that picture if they keep rising (I expect them to be higher again in August).
 
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**** Novo Nordisk has been getting killed. Kinda surprising just how bad it's performed over the last year. But Think they had an idiotic mistake in Canada where they never extended their Glp-1 patent (literally for like <$200!) so it opened the door for a bunch of generic to manufacture in 2026... And then they just announced CEO change and projected earning this year getting cut a lot.... Them and UNH keep sucking. Feels like they'd be good long term plays just given value and the fact they both still make decent money - just much less than expected. Seems they are pulling Eli Lilly down with them a bit (5% today) which probably just makes that the safer buy.... Think lilly has the better actual weight loss drug than Novo does anyways... hmmm
 
Calinative said:
**** Novo Nordisk has been getting killed. Kinda surprising just how bad it's performed over the last year. But Think they had an idiotic mistake in Canada where they never extended their Glp-1 patent (literally for like <$200!) so it opened the door for a bunch of generic to manufacture in 2026... And then they just announced CEO change and projected earning this year getting cut a lot.... Them and UNH keep sucking. Feels like they'd be good long term plays just given value and the fact they both still make decent money - just much less than expected. Seems they are pulling Eli Lilly down with them a bit (5% today) which probably just makes that the safer buy.... Think lilly has the better actual weight loss drug than Novo does anyways... hmmm
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I have LLY…it getting hit today too.
 
Earnings are showing signs of tariff slowdowns. IMO we haven’t seen worse economic numbers because consumers have been buying in advance of the tariffs. I personally know 3 friends who bought cars before the price increases. That is giving us false readings.
Companies like Walmart bought cargo containers in advance, to keep their prices lower. Even with a smaller 15% tariff, across the board, we will see inflation.
The Fed knows this.
I am not wishing for Trump to fail as I am invested like all of you. Consumers are starting to feel the effects. China delays, and back and forths, are causing uncertainty. If the tariff monies were used to cut debt, it could make a difference, as we know the Republican bill will add trillions to our debt, adding to our problems.
Sorry to be so negative.
 
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mr.h said:
Earnings are showing signs of tariff slowdowns. IMO we haven’t seen worse economic numbers is because consumers have been buying in advance of the tariffs. I personally know 3 friends who bought cars before the price increases. That is giving us false readings.
Companies like Walmart bought cargo containers in advance, to keep their prices lower. Even with a smaller 15% tariff, across the board, we will see inflation.
The Fed knows this.
I am not wishing for Trump to fail as I am invested like all of you. Consumers are starting to feel the effects. China delays, and back and forths, are causing uncertainty. If the tariff monies were used to cut debt, it could make a difference, as we know the Republican bill will add trillions to our debt, adding to our problems.
Sorry to be so negative.
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I have concerns that the housing downturn (Values dropping) will offset the goods and services inflation numbers, and the current leadership will tout that the tariffs are not causing harm when looking at the overall inflation statistics. This may lead to a premature drop in interest rates and all **** will break loose (prices going up everywhere, rapidly. Consumers and businesses pulling back aggressively, etc). JMHO.
 
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