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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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JD08 said:
Why hasn't that happened in the places that tariff us? Are ALL tariffs bad?
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Not all tariffs are bad. Over the long term, some tariffs can help by pushing companies to bring production onshore and build more within the US. The problem with tariffs on EVERYTHING is that bringing production onshore for EVERYTHING is not feasible even in the long term. Even with goods it makes sense to bring onshore, a tariff will cause a temporary increase in cost of developing the product (which likely gets passed down to the consumer). But again, one could reasonably think that this is good in the long term. Another benefit could be punishing another country (e.g., we have sanctions on Russia and North Korea and I believe we do little to no trade with them).

The only hope is that Trump is using this purely as a negotiating tactic and will remove most of these added tariffs shortly. The risk is if not enough countries budge and his options are remove the tariffs and completely embarrass himself or push us deep into a recession.
 
dreyes1125 said:
Not all tariffs are bad. Over the long term, some tariffs can help by pushing companies to bring production onshore and build more within the US. The problem with tariffs on EVERYTHING is that bringing production onshore for EVERYTHING is not feasible even in the long term. Even with goods it makes sense to bring onshore, a tariff will cause a temporary increase in cost of developing the product (which likely gets passed down to the consumer). But again, one could reasonably think that this is good in the long term. Another benefit could be punishing another country (e.g., we have sanctions on Russia and North Korea and I believe we do little to no trade with them).

The only hope is that Trump is using this purely as a negotiating tactic and will remove most of these added tariffs shortly. The risk is if not enough countries budge and his options are remove the tariffs and completely embarrass himself or push us deep into a recession.
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I get it and I'm not really a fan of tariffs. I just take pleasure in torturing @mr.h.

I do think a fair amount of this was bluster and has already produced results as we've seen increased investment in the US.
 
mr.h said:
Absolutely not, but not the way Trump did this.
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He's always had this style of going to extremes and seeming crazy as a negotiating tactic. I'm not a fan of that, but I'm also not across the table from him.

I fully expect people to lose their heads and react on any negative news, and I fully expect others to take advantage of buying opportunities and help rally the market back. There really is nothing new going on here. Maybe I'm jaded having lived through the talk of doom and gloom in 1987 when the market dropped more than 20% and they were waiting for people to jump out of buildings like 1929.
 
JD08 said:
Why hasn't that happened in the places that tariff us? Are ALL tariffs bad?
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You know what countries don't play well with tarrifs? North Korea and Russia. In a vacuum this may sound neat but the reality is this. To what end and purpose other than to **** people off and gut 401ks. So I'm all ears on how it's a good thing.
 
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fatnasty187 said:
You know what countries don't play well with tarrifs? North Korea and Russia. In a vacuum this may sound neat but the reality is this. To what end and purpose other than to **** people off and gut 401ks. So I'm all ears on how it's a good thing.
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What exactly is your concern about Russia and North Korea? For the record, in general, I dislike tariffs. I also don't like large trade deficits.

To repeat myself from earlier:
JD08

Off-Topic Post in thread 'Stock Market & Crypto Discussion'

dreyes1125 said:
Not all tariffs are bad. Over the long term, some tariffs can help by pushing companies to bring production onshore and build more within the US. The problem with tariffs on EVERYTHING is that bringing production onshore for EVERYTHING is not feasible even in the long term. Even with goods it makes sense to bring onshore, a tariff will cause a temporary increase in cost of developing the product (which likely gets passed down to the consumer). But again, one could reasonably think that this is good in the long term. Another benefit could be punishing another country (e.g., we have...
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  • Haha
 
So, Wall Street and its investors lose trillions in one day; and, Trump flies to Florida to play golf.

When Obama and Biden did tone deaf things like this, they were crucified. Just sayin. What's good for the goose and all that.
 
dreyes1125 said:
Not all tariffs are bad. Over the long term, some tariffs can help by pushing companies to bring production onshore and build more within the US. The problem with tariffs on EVERYTHING is that bringing production onshore for EVERYTHING is not feasible even in the long term. Even with goods it makes sense to bring onshore, a tariff will cause a temporary increase in cost of developing the product (which likely gets passed down to the consumer). But again, one could reasonably think that this is good in the long term. Another benefit could be punishing another country (e.g., we have sanctions on Russia and North Korea and I believe we do little to no trade with them).

The only hope is that Trump is using this purely as a negotiating tactic and will remove most of these added tariffs shortly. The risk is if not enough countries budge and his options are remove the tariffs and completely embarrass himself or push us deep into a recession.
Click to expand...
You realize that these are entirely contradictory things, right?

Why would a company invest loads of money in onshoring production if the tariff could disappear tomorrow at the whim of a negotiating position?
Protectionism only works in a stable environment where the expected conditions will last long enough to create domestic production and get a return on investment. Otherwise, a company could find themselves having invested a fortune and still competing with cheaper overseas markets.

This is why the protectionist angle is not really viable here because he has already backed out of tariffs several times in the last few months. There is no stability in the policy to give businesses the confidence that the conditions will survive the week (not to mention the year+ it would actually take to seriously gear up production).
 
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genxcane said:
You realize that these are entirely contradictory things, right?

Why would a company invest loads of money in onshoring production if the tariff could disappear tomorrow at the whim of a negotiating position?
Protectionism only works in a stable environment where the expected conditions will last long enough to create domestic production and get a return on investment. Otherwise, a company could find themselves having invested a fortune and still competing with cheaper overseas markets.

This is why the protectionist angle is not really viable here because he has already backed out of tariffs several times in the last few months. There is no stability in the policy to give businesses the confidence that the conditions will survive the week (not to mention the year+ it would actually take to seriously gear up production).
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Makes perfect sense.
 
JD08 said:
He's always had this style of going to extremes and seeming crazy as a negotiating tactic. I'm not a fan of that, but I'm also not across the table from him.

I fully expect people to lose their heads and react on any negative news, and I fully expect others to take advantage of buying opportunities and help rally the market back. There really is nothing new going on here. Maybe I'm jaded having lived through the talk of doom and gloom in 1987 when the market dropped more than 20% and they were waiting for people to jump out of buildings like 1929.
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His formula for calculating the Tariffs are wrong. If the US buys more from a country than it sells to, Trump calls that a tariff..but it’s capitalism…
Imo, He's bluffing, but I hope he does not cause a recession. His economists must know the math is wrong. He’s hurting our reputation and relationships with good allies.
 
mr.h said:
His formula for calculating the Tariffs are wrong. If the US buys more from a country than it sells to, Trump calls that a tariff..but it’s capitalism…
Imo, He's bluffing, but I hope he does not cause a recession. His economists must know the math is wrong. He’s hurting our reputation and relationships with good allies.
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There are a lot more factors than just import and export dollar amounts. Foreign government subsidies and currency manipulation come into play as well.

I'm not happy with the process, but I doubt he will do anything that doesn't have us better on the other side. He does understand economics.
 
genxcane said:
You realize that these are entirely contradictory things, right?

Why would a company invest loads of money in onshoring production if the tariff could disappear tomorrow at the whim of a negotiating position?
Protectionism only works in a stable environment where the expected conditions will last long enough to create domestic production and get a return on investment. Otherwise, a company could find themselves having invested a fortune and still competing with cheaper overseas markets.

This is why the protectionist angle is not really viable here because he has already backed out of tariffs several times in the last few months. There is no stability in the policy to give businesses the confidence that the conditions will survive the week (not to mention the year+ it would actually take to seriously gear up production).
Click to expand...
Spot on.

Since they went with 10% flat tariff and additional adval tarrifs for countries we have high trade deficits with, while suggesting in the proclamation (and Trump publicly saying so today) that the latter tariffs can be negotiated away, they haven't provided clarity on the question of what their end goal is: protection/reshoring of production, revenue generation, or helping American firms to easier sell their goods and services overseas (regardless of where they are made). Protection and creation of tariff revenue can work together; protection and reciprocity (we'll have 0 tariff and non tariff barriers if you do too) are antagonistic to one another.

Trump's tariff policy in his first term, I'd argue was all about reciprocity, using the levers of state power to help American companies sell more goods and services overseas. Occasional lip service was paid to protection/reshoring.

Remains to be seen whether this time will be different. If they're serious about protection/reshoring, then the additional adval tariffs won't go away and any efforts by say Apple to move production from a high trade deficit country to a low one will be futile as the new country will then have high deficit and will be added to the list. Nothing from his first term nor the trade jawboning this term prior to yesterday suggests this outcome is a real possibility.

WRT to markets, if the additional adval tariffs are for show and either don't go into effect on the 9th or are negotiated away soon after, I don't see any reason not to expect a v-shaped recovery to new highs like after the mini-tech bear market at the end of '18 in his first term.

If the leopard has changed his spots and they're serious about protection/reshoring, we will see markets reprice to the downside massively - far more so than we saw in COVID crash or the '22 bear market, IMO.
 
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