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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
4.2t to 120b. It is bigger than California and is normally 4th behind USA, China. & Germany.
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lol…I was exaggerating…but California, Texas and New York’s economies are right behind Japans..
Trump has made the stock market his proof of success. He belittled last year’s 20+ % return. Now he owns it. The market is falling on uncertainty and the knowledge that tariffs will cause inflation to rise. Debt will not go down even with all these disruptive firings and closings because he will cut taxes and revenue.
 
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mr.h said:
lol…I was exaggerating…but California, Texas and New York’s economies are right behind Japans..
Trump has made the stock market his proof of success. He belittled last year’s 20+ % return. Now he owns it. The market is falling on uncertainty and the knowledge that tariffs will cause inflation to rise. Debt will not go down even with all these disruptive firings and closings because he will cut taxes and revenue.
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Are you really saying that Trumps 5 weeks have caused the economy to go into recession? Take your Blue glasses off for a minute and ask yourself if Biden was responsible for the inflation of 2021-2024 or if it was Trump’s.

Is Trump also responsible for China and Japans slow downs too?
 
These things work in cycles. When the markets go down and the right person is in charge, it's a global economy and there's nothing we can do about it. When the markets go down and the wrong person is in charge, it's 100% on the president.
 
90scane said:
4.2t to 120b. It is bigger than California and is normally 4th behind USA, China. & Germany.
Click to expand...
lol…I was exaggerating…but California, Texas and New York’s economies are right behind Japans..
Trump has made the stock market
90scane said:
Are you really saying that Trumps 5 weeks have caused the economy to go into recession? Take your Blue glasses off for a minute and ask yourself if Biden was responsible for the inflation of 2021-2024 or if it was Trump’s.

Is Trump also responsible for China and Japans slow downs too?
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It will lead to a recession.. We are not in a recession yet. Biden transferred over a strong economy. GDP is strong and inflation was going down. The stock market gained over 20% in 2024. We had a stronger economy than any other country and the US dollar was king. We had steady employment numbers with a strong labor market and earnings outpaced inflation. You complain about mortgage rates, but they are low in comparison to when I was buying homes and businesses.

“However, increased tariffs—as proposed by the new administration—are expected to worsen economic performance, particularly over the next two years, with increased inflation and lower GDP growth.***** Although current data highlight an economy that is at its strongest in decades, future policies may put this positive trajectory at risk”.
 
mr.h said:
Biden transferred over a strong economy. GDP is strong and inflation was going down.
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GDP growth is not strong.
Inflation was lower in the summer thus going up.
The reverse repo is drained of trillions.
The treasury is drained.
 
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 7)
11.2% - - 20.4%
02:30
USD OPEC Monthly Market Report
REPORT
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
0.2% -1.34 0.3% 0.5%
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2.8% -2.04 2.9% 3%
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Feb)
325.48 - - 324.74
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Feb)
0.2% -2.04 0.3% 0.4%
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Feb)
3.1% -0.98 3.2% 3.3%
03:00
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Feb)
319.082 -0.91 319.22 317.671

CPI for February MOM and YOY down..including and excluding food and energy.
*tariffs won’t kick in until mid March and April numbers.
 
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Well I do have 13% of my portfolio in short term CDs. If we drop much further I may just tap into that.
 
JD08 said:
Color me skeptical about Deepseek. The biggest threat any company enjoying the kind of innovation and success that Nvidia is enjoying is complacency.
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Nvidia up 6.5% yesterday and I think it’s going to be a very good year for those who took the plunge. Like I said the other day, the price it was sitting at was almost impossible to resist.
 
USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Feb 28)
1.87M -1.73 1.9M 1.897M
03:00
USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7)
220K -0.44 225K 222K
03:00
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Mar 7)
226K - - 224.5K
03:00
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
0% -2.57 0.3% 0.6%
03:00
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
3.2% -0.58 3.3% 3.7%
03:00
USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Feb)
-0.1% -3.33 0.3% 0.3%
03:00
USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Feb)
3.4% -0.49 3.5% 3.6%

PPI down for Feb…another good inflation report…but it won’t help…lol
 
DoctorKrazey said:
Nvidia up 6.5% yesterday and I think it’s going to be a very good year for those who took the plunge. Like I said the other day, the price it was sitting at was almost impossible to resist.
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We need to see what the FED, Trump, and Congress do. Right now, we are almost out of liquidity with the FED doing QT and no more backdoor QE. Treasury is out of liquidity tools, too. Thus, I expect the market to correct until balance is found OR we see QE.
 
90scane said:
We need to see what the FED, Trump, and Congress do. Right now, we are almost out of liquidity with the FED doing QT and no more backdoor QE. Treasury is out of liquidity tools, too. Thus, I expect the market to correct until balance is found OR we see QE.
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QE would be nice for mortgage rates, but not so much for inflation.
 
JD08 said:
QE would be nice for mortgage rates, but not so much for inflation.
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not just mortgage rates. Someone has to buy government bonds to drop the cost of debt. It also drops corporate loan rates, credit card rates…

As of now, QT is still killing off around 80b/month of M2 or 1T/yr. I doubt we get to 2026 with the FED still doing QT.
 
90scane said:
not just mortgage rates. Someone has to buy government bonds to drop the cost of debt. It also drops corporate loan rates, credit card rates…

As of now, QT is still killing off around 80b/month of M2 or 1T/yr. I doubt we get to 2026 with the FED still doing QT.
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I'm singlemindedly focused on mortgage rates right now.
 
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DoctorKrazey said:
Nvidia up 6.5% yesterday and I think it’s going to be a very good year for those who took the plunge. Like I said the other day, the price it was sitting at was almost impossible to resist.
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If you believe we are in or heading to an AI Cold War, nvidia is the new big defense spending company of choice. The negative concerns- Trump is trying to keep gpus out of the Chinese hands. This could get China to spend tons to replace nvidia and tmsc or they could just invade Taiwan
And South Korea to consolidate enough chip production to isolate the west. Short term- I’m more concerned with liquidity as a major part nvidia revenue is tied to consumers (TikTok, meta, Microsoft, Apple…). If consumers slow their spending, do we see those companies slow their purchases. Compounding the cost of money for fabs, energy, engineers…
 
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90scane said:
If you believe we are in or heading to an AI Cold War, nvidia is the new big defense spending company of choice. The negative concerns- Trump is trying to keep gpus out of the Chinese hands. This could get China to spend tons to replace nvidia and tmsc or they could just invade Taiwan
And South Korea to consolidate enough chip production to isolate the west. Short term- I’m more concerned with liquidity as a major part nvidia revenue is tied to consumers (TikTok, meta, Microsoft, Apple…). If consumers slow their spending, do we see those companies slow their purchases. Compounding the cost of money for fabs, energy, engineers…
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Yea, I saw the other day where TSMC is trying to acquire Intel, which obviously would make China nervous. I can’t see Intel being viable much longer, especially if Trump axes the CHIPS Act, which he seems to be convinced is the right move. There’s mixed feelings on abolishing the CHIPS Act from those even on the right so I’m curious where you stand on that.
 
90scane said:
If you believe we are in or heading to an AI Cold War, nvidia is the new big defense spending company of choice. The negative concerns- Trump is trying to keep gpus out of the Chinese hands. This could get China to spend tons to replace nvidia and tmsc or they could just invade Taiwan
And South Korea to consolidate enough chip production to isolate the west. Short term- I’m more concerned with liquidity as a major part nvidia revenue is tied to consumers (TikTok, meta, Microsoft, Apple…). If consumers slow their spending, do we see those companies slow their purchases. Compounding the cost of money for fabs, energy, engineers…
Click to expand...
China will not invade Taiwan….they are still good at stealing our technology
TSMC a is a LTH.
 
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