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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
Here is an alternative view; the market was/is way overbought, because the Fed kept rates too low for too long, kept QE too long, and the Biden administration spent like a drunken sailor.

So it was only a matter of time until we have a correction, and the current climate is simply pushing that possibility forward. And despite the meshugass of the last few weeks, the S&P is down less than 1% YTD.
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That could be said for quite a long time.
 
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90scane said:
all for the certain party comments

Tariffs- we need revenue. We need to cut spending. We need to increase GDP. Tariffs could actually help drive up revenue and increase GDP(in time). Cutting government spending by 10-20% will help but getting the 10yr down to 1-2% helps just as much. The combination of increased tax revenue, decreased spending, and decreasing the cost of debt could actually have the USA paying down the deficit. Having inflation around 2-4% actually helps reduce the deficit in some ways by devaluation of the USD so long as the government doesn’t over spend during the same period of time.
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I also think what’s wigging investors out as well is just the whole schizophrenic nature of these tariffs. The tariffs are on, then we’re delaying it for 30 days, tariffs are on, oops changed our minds we’re delaying it again, then we’re reinstating the tariffs but it’s only going to be for certain goods, etc. So I think that’s the issue right now for investors - they don’t really know what to do because there’s just so much uncertainty. It almost feels like deep down Trump KNOWS these tariffs are bad for the economy which is why he seems so hesitant to go forward with them when the rubber meets the road. I always felt like this was just a bluff by Trump to scare these countries into better trade deals, but now that they’ve called him on his bluff he’s not quite sure how to respond.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
I also think what’s wigging investors out as well is just the whole schizophrenic nature of these tariffs. The tariffs are on, then we’re delaying it for 30 days, tariffs are on, oops changed our minds we’re delaying it again, then we’re reinstating the tariffs but it’s only going to be for certain goods, etc. So I think that’s the issue right now for investors - they don’t really know what to do because there’s just so much uncertainty. It almost feels like deep down Trump KNOWS these tariffs are bad for the economy which is why he seems so hesitant to go forward with them when the rubber meets the road. I always felt like this was just a bluff by Trump to scare these countries into better trade deals, but now that they’ve called him on his bluff he’s not quite sure how to respond.
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Bluster and complete utter chaos.
 
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USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
0.3% 0.00 0.3% 0.4%
04:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Feb)
4% -0.71 4.1% 3.9%
04:00
USD Average Weekly Hours (Feb)
34.1 -0.98 34.2 34.1
04:00
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Feb)
62.4% - - 62.6%
04:00
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
151K -0.11 160K 125K
04:00
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Feb)
8% - - 7.5%
04:00
USD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
4.1% 2.04 4% 4%

Non-farm payrolls less than expected but higher than last month
Unemployment rate up to 4.1%

imo…These are February numbers and may not all be associated with the new administration
 
DoctorKrazey said:
I also think what’s wigging investors out as well is just the whole schizophrenic nature of these tariffs. The tariffs are on, then we’re delaying it for 30 days, tariffs are on, oops changed our minds we’re delaying it again, then we’re reinstating the tariffs but it’s only going to be for certain goods, etc. So I think that’s the issue right now for investors - they don’t really know what to do because there’s just so much uncertainty. It almost feels like deep down Trump KNOWS these tariffs are bad for the economy which is why he seems so hesitant to go forward with them when the rubber meets the road. I always felt like this was just a bluff by Trump to scare these countries into better trade deals, but now that they’ve called him on his bluff he’s not quite sure how to respond.
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The truth is always somewhere in the mud(middle). I’m sure he would like to bluff to get great trade deals but he also needs revenue from tariffs if he is going to keep the tax cuts and balance the budget.

I’ve had a defensive position for 5 years to the month. If we don’t have a recession or correction, I would be shocked and concerned at the same time. It would likely mean Congress and the FED bailed out the economy.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
I also think what’s wigging investors out as well is just the whole schizophrenic nature of these tariffs. The tariffs are on, then we’re delaying it for 30 days, tariffs are on, oops changed our minds we’re delaying it again, then we’re reinstating the tariffs but it’s only going to be for certain goods, etc. So I think that’s the issue right now for investors - they don’t really know what to do because there’s just so much uncertainty. It almost feels like deep down Trump KNOWS these tariffs are bad for the economy which is why he seems so hesitant to go forward with them when the rubber meets the road. I always felt like this was just a bluff by Trump to scare these countries into better trade deals, but now that they’ve called him on his bluff he’s not quite sure how to respond.
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I'm no economist but I think Trump knows implementing tariffs would cripple the economies of nearly all of these countries, which is why it's a good negotiating tactic.

However, if a country were to call his bluff and he goes through with it, it'll hurt our own economy.
 
HurricanesR1 said:
I'm no economist but I think Trump knows implementing tariffs would cripple the economies of nearly all of these countries, which is why it's a good negotiating tactic.

However, if a country were to call his bluff and he goes through with it, it'll hurt our own economy.
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It always amazes me how little our political figures actually know about the history of this country. When I say this, before all the Trump supporters get upset, keep in mind both parties are equally guilty of this. By now, I’m sure many have heard Trump referencing the late 1800’s when referring to a time of “great economic prosperity” for America. The irony of Trump using his current tariff strategy as a means to raise revenue, the reality is that the McKinley administration used tariffs as a way to decrease it. At the time, we were running a huge surplus and the amount of money in circulation was directly tied to the amount of gold we had. I know it’s a strange thing for people to wrap their head around, but the McKinley Tariff Act was enacted for the completely opposite reason as Trump’s idea.

As far as “prosperity”, the tariffs imposed by McKinley had a drastically negative effect on this country. Higher prices on things became the norm, and it eventually led to The Republican Party losing control in Congress and a recession that lasted several years. It also led to what is historically referred to as, “The Gilded Age” where an extremely small group of people control 99% of the wealth while the rest of the population lives like peasants.
 
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Tony4Canes said:
Sorry but I like this thread just being straight Stock & Crypto posts
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Yea I apologize for my part in it. I think it started out as tariffs effecting stocks and things went off course. Back to business! On that note, I think now is the perfect time to get in on Nvidia. If you were considering buying it, now is the time. I also like Enbridge long-term.
 
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HurricanesR1 said:
I haven't read through every page but is anyone else jumping on PLTR and TER? Thinking about being aggressive on those two.
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I bought some Palantir back at the end of 2021 at $23/share. Should have added more in 2023 when it was <$10. But now it seems overpriced at $85. Though early Feb it did reach like $120. But a 425 PE ratio and it's over double what it was like leading up to the election...

Though if Trump actually lets DOGE do some **** to DoD and actually gets them to significantly change it's award strategy and focus, Palantir can definitely be a big winner. I wish we could ******* buy Andurill. Would have bought a lot of that like a year or two ago.

I might buy some more if it gets closer to $60. But I'm honestly more inclined to just go harder in on Tesla or Nvidia which have a higher likelihood of doubling imo
 
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Calinative said:
I bought some Palantir back at the end of 2021 at $23/share. Should have added more in 2023 when it was <$10. But now it seems overpriced at $85. Though early Feb it did reach like $120. But a 425 PE ratio and it's over double what it was like leading up to the election...

Though if Trump actually lets DOGE do some **** to DoD and actually gets them to significantly change it's award strategy and focus, Palantir can definitely be a big winner. I wish we could ******* buy Andurill. Would have bought a lot of that like a year or two ago.

I might buy some more if it gets closer to $60. But I'm honestly more inclined to just go harder in on Tesla or Nvidia which have a higher likelihood of doubling imo
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Yea, I love how cheap Nvidia is right now. As I mentioned in my post above, investors should be running, not walking(metaphorically speaking) to their nearest device to buy as many shares as possible. This is a company that did $40 billion in sales in 2023 to $130 billion currently and with the advancements in A.I. it’s only going to keep growing. With the current uncertainty in the market I realize many folks are hesitant and playing it safe at the moment, but I just think the price it’s sitting at it’s an absolute steal.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
Yea, I love how cheap Nvidia is right now. As I mentioned in my post above, investors should be running, not walking(metaphorically speaking) to their nearest device to buy as many shares as possible. This is a company that did $40 billion in sales in 2023 to $130 billion currently and with the advancements in A.I. it’s only going to keep growing. With the current uncertainty in the market I realize many folks are hesitant and playing it safe at the moment, but I just think the price it’s sitting at it’s an absolute steal.
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Deepseek showed the world nvidia isn’t perfect. Then you have economic uncertainty which normally leads to reduced capital purchases. Lastly, others could catch them. I’m still a bull mid term.
 
CPI Wednesday
PPI Thursday
I believe inflation will be down for February..but tariffs loom.
 
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Movement into dividend stocks, bonds and defensive stocks, growth and income and international stocks abroad.
Imo this the time to have cash and buy bargains when the recession hits.
 
90scane said:
Deepseek showed the world nvidia isn’t perfect. Then you have economic uncertainty which normally leads to reduced capital purchases. Lastly, others could catch them. I’m still a bull mid term.
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Color me skeptical about Deepseek. The biggest threat any company enjoying the kind of innovation and success that Nvidia is enjoying is complacency.
 
For those who wanted lower mortgage rates, you got what you ask for.
Home prices and stocks will be at bargain levels..
@JD08 …NVDA is technologically advanced..
 
JD08 said:
Color me skeptical about Deepseek. The biggest threat any company enjoying the kind of innovation and success that Nvidia is enjoying is complacency.
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Deep seek used a different approach to AI because they found a flaw with Nvidias AI code. Instead of using nvidias code, they wrote their own layer of code for older nvidia chips.

This would mean other orgs using nvidia could do similar things and save on billions on chips OR they keep the level of purchases and produce even more AI capacity.
 
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