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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 2.6% 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
08:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (Jun) 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.4%
 
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mr.h said:
Core personal consumption stays the same at 2.6%-2.5% expected
Personal income for June down
Personal spending for June down
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If that report about jobs paying ~8% less is true, then we can expect personal income to continue to drop as people change jobs.
 
JD08 said:
If that report about jobs paying ~8% less is true, then we can expect personal income to continue to drop as people change jobs.
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Then we should see rates cut in September..
inflation staying calm.
 
mr.h said:
Then we should see rates cut in September..
inflation staying calm.
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Also depends on the government. Along as the well-off continue spending, the shrinking middle class suffers.
 
Summer inflation was expected to drop. I’ve heard 0 to .75 are on the table. 0 if inflation bounces back to .75 if inflation tanks along with high unemployment. The longer they hold the more likely we see a recession imo.
 
90scane said:
Summer inflation was expected to drop. I’ve heard 0 to .75 are on the table. 0 if inflation bounces back to .75 if inflation tanks along with high unemployment. The longer they hold the more likely we see a recession imo.
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Any true recession is going to be met by massive rate cuts. Not just the occasional quarter point.
 
Major earnings and Fed Speak this week.

Hold Tight
Meme Success GIF by MOODMAN
 
TheEye said:
Any true recession is going to be met by massive rate cuts. Not just the occasional quarter point.
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The rate cuts are using a 6-12 month leading indicator for the bottom of the market. They can do massive cuts but the damage is done, IMO. A recession will happen and a new cycle will begin. The rate cuts will lead to a new round of inflation so don’t expect the cuts to last. I’m not even sure that will get to 0.
 
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90scane said:
The rate cuts are using a 6-12 month leading indicator for the bottom of the market. They can do massive cuts but the damage is done, IMO. A recession will happen and a new cycle will begin. The rate cuts will lead to a new round of inflation so don’t expect the cuts to last. I’m not even sure that will get to 0.
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Been hearing this for years now.
 
TheEye said:
Been hearing this for years now.
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you very well could be right…Fed cuts and we don’t see a recession. I provided a chart on the board(not sure the thread) that shows how we have reduced the months in recession.

Even if we don’t see a recession, we are likely heading into stagflation.
 
90scane said:
you very well could be right…Fed cuts and we don’t see a recession. I provided a chart on the board(not sure the thread) that shows how we have reduced the months in recession.

Even if we don’t see a recession, we are likely heading into stagflation.
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That's a bigger problem than either recession or inflation, especially with MMT still being considered a valid theory.
 
Gotta get the majority of my money out of the market in the next 2 months for closing of a house (end of month sept). Anyone with stocks and not indices have a particular exit plan? We had a terrible fall last week so have been taking just a few shares out each day. But definitely haven’t taken out chunks at a time.
Where do you guys think the market is headed? I’m guessing we’re gonna get more clarity this week or at least a pump soon.
Im sitting on about 27% profit currently(not including the taxes imma have to pay-32% on short term trades). Get out immediately, or slowly get out?

Plan to sell everything but my DJT, Rumble and Tesla.
 
Cmuri said:
Gotta get the majority of my money out of the market in the next 2 months for closing of a house (end of month sept). Anyone with stocks and not indices have a particular exit plan? We had a terrible fall last week so have been taking just a few shares out each day. But definitely haven’t taken out chunks at a time.
Where do you guys think the market is headed? I’m guessing we’re gonna get more clarity this week or at least a pump soon.
Im sitting on about 27% profit currently(not including the taxes imma have to pay-32% on short term trades). Get out immediately, or slowly get out?

Plan to sell everything but my DJT, Rumble and Tesla.
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Are you selling for a downpayment or are you 100% cash? If you ask me, the doom and gloomers have been wrong for longterm investors. I like using a mortgage and making advance payments while my investments are going up. Then when the market dips I recast the loan to lower the monthly payments during the hard times.
 
TheEye said:
Are you selling for a downpayment or are you 100% cash? If you ask me, the doom and gloomers have been wrong for longterm investors. I like using a mortgage and making advance payments while my investments are going up. Then when the market dips I recast the loan to lower the monthly payments during the hard times.
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I would be selling for the down payment. We are putting about 35-40% down. So gotta slowly get it out. So far I have taken out about $13k of the 430k I gotta get out. lol 1 share at a time is not working out lol
 
Cmuri said:
I would be selling for the down payment. We are putting about 35-40% down. So gotta slowly get it out. So far I have taken out about $13k of the 430k I gotta get out. lol 1 share at a time is not working out lol
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If you know what stocks you want to dump, sell the majority now and put into a 1 month high yield CD or bond. That way you have the money and aren’t forced to sell during a potential sell off. The market could also spike between now and then but you would be making interest from the bond.
 
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If you have $800-1m in the market, you should look at a Pledged Asset line. Borrow the $430k from yourself then sell after more gains and better tax treatment. I believe this has two tax benefits: assets are sold after 365 thus reducing taxes and the interest maybe a tax deduction.
 
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9:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May) 1.0% 1.4%
09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May) 6.8% 6.5% 7.3%
10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 100.3 99.7 97.8
10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 8.184M 8.020M 8.230M
Consumer confidence up
Jolt jobs up
S&P home prices up
 
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