Hard to predict the timing. I've seen lots of wild predictions including the failure of the USD yet it is currently crushing almost every currency in the world.
i believe we are already in a recession or very close to one. If unemployment jumps much more, inflation will cool, real estate will cool, the stock market will cool, all leading to bank failures, and rate cuts plus QE. They have already slowed QT. The FED has cut 2T off their balance sheet over the last 2 years. Zero chance they run it to $0 especially with the U.S. government needing to sell treasuries.
I’m not sure we see the FED get to 0% again. I suspect we are heading into years of higher rates and those rates will keep going up. There may be one more run at 0% but the well is almost dry.
