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mr.h said:
AI is just breaking the surface and the economy is strong. There will be a lot more competition.
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There are signs of a weakening economy: unemployment is up .5% in the last year, GDP is only up due to government spending, the Government can't sell bonds so they are selling T-Bills, Government debt continues north with neither party is willing to address the 3rd rail, consumer credit card debt is still at 1.1T, regional banks are looking at massive MTM losses, need I keep going?
 
90scane said:
There are signs of a weakening economy: unemployment is up .5% in the last year, GDP is only up due to government spending, the Government can't sell bonds so they are selling T-Bills, Government debt continues north with neither party is willing to address the 3rd rail, consumer credit card debt is still at 1.1T, regional banks are looking at massive MTM losses, need I keep going?
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Camel's back?
 
90scane said:
There are signs of a weakening economy: unemployment is up .5% in the last year, GDP is only up due to government spending, the Government can't sell bonds so they are selling T-Bills, Government debt continues north with neither party is willing to address the 3rd rail, consumer credit card debt is still at 1.1T, regional banks are looking at massive MTM losses, need I keep going?
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Not just regionals, BAC for example has huge MTM losses too. A friend who has been investing for over 50 years thinks the Fed is going to stop QT completely and possibly even cut to save the banks and real estate. Just one persons opinion though.
 
Bird4um said:
Camel's back?
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I'm an AI bull but also think the economy can't continue on like this forever. Technology also can only get adopted so fast.

My best example: Tesla FSD is the best AI tech for driving on the market yet multiple users here refuse to use it. Extrapolate that to the 200ish million drivers in the USA and the adoption rate for this technology is low. Give that same technology another 10 years and I could see a much higher rate of adoption not to mention even more improvements to the technology.

We can then look at job destruction due to AI. Do you think 3.5M truck drivers, 300k taxi drivers, 1.5M uber drivers will go unemployed without a massive economic impact? This is when 5M people hold out their hands asking for Universal Basic Income Yang was talking about.
 
90scane said:
I'm an AI bull but also think the economy can't continue on like this forever. Technology also can only get adopted so fast.

My best example: Tesla FSD is the best AI tech for driving on the market yet multiple users here refuse to use it. Extrapolate that to the 200ish million drivers in the USA and the adoption rate for this technology is low. Give that same technology another 10 years and I could see a much higher rate of adoption not to mention even more improvements to the technology.

We can then look at job destruction due to AI. Do you think 3.5M truck drivers, 300k taxi drivers, 1.5M uber drivers will go unemployed without a massive economic impact? This is when 5M people hold out their hands asking for Universal Basic Income Yang was talking about.
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What you are implying is an bigger separation between Wall Street and Main Street than what we are seeing now.
 
SpikeUM said:
Not just regionals, BAC for example has huge MTM losses too. A friend who has been investing for over 50 years thinks the Fed is going to stop QT completely and possibly even cut to save the banks and real estate. Just one persons opinion though.
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As a real estate guy, I love the sound of one more round of QE and 0% rates. I can then refi from the 7.5% range for around 50% of my portfolio into 4-5% to maximize cashflow. I know the FED will have to do YCC with 7-8% FED Funds Rates to support T-Bonds in the coming years.
 
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SpikeUM said:
What you are implying is an bigger separation between Wall Street and Main Street than what we are seeing now.
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Pretty much. The wealthy will fund the replacement of jobs which will cause massive unemployment in some sectors. If we move too fast, those unemployed will have no time to learn skills for jobs that can't be replaced. To further complicate matters, the tax law doesn't have a means of taxing robo taxis. Instead, we tax companies based on unemployment, SS, medicare, etc with no real factor for displaced employees.

In short- AI and robotics could replace/displace millions of employees. Those humans will be needing jobs or government help if the move happens to fast.

Ironic that many are worried about immigration causing these issues when in fact, AI is a massive concern for jobs and population collapse. The population collapse is a real concern as it is well documented that humans without purpose don’t reproduce. We are already in a population decline.
 
90scane said:
Pretty much. The wealthy will fund the replacement of jobs which will cause massive unemployment in some sectors. If we move too fast, those unemployed will have no time to learn skills for jobs that can't be replaced. To further complicate matters, the tax law doesn't have a means of taxing robo taxis. Instead, we tax companies based on unemployment, SS, medicare, etc with no real factor for displaced employees.

In short- AI and robotics could replace/displace millions of employees. Those humans will be needing jobs or government help if the move happens to fast.

Ironic that many are worried about immigration causing these issues when in fact, AI is a massive concern for jobs and population collapse. The population collapse is a real concern as it is well documented that humans without purpose don’t reproduce. We are already in a population decline.
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When does the AI woman show up? Then massive decline in birth rates.
 
Bird4um said:
When does the AI woman show up? Then massive decline in birth rates.
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Already has started happening. **** AI, onlyfans chats are AI for some popular women, then you have full on *** robots with AI for conversations…

It is a major concern for the human population. If you have young kids, you would know how much time that generation spends in the virtual world. That alone is a concern as they won’t know how to build real world relationships. Case in point: two of my teen sons broke up with girls because those girls only knew how to communicate via text/snapchat and would go silent when trying to talk in person.
 
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90scane said:
Already has started happening. **** AI, onlyfans chats are AI for some popular women, then you have full on *** robots with AI for conversations…

It is a major concern for the human population. If you have young kids, you would know how much time that generation spends in the virtual world. That alone is a concern as they won’t know how to build real world relationships. Case in point: two of my teen sons broke up with girls because those girls only knew how to communicate via text/snapchat and would silent when trying to talk in person.
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I believe it. Have to raise your sons with discipline.
 
Very hard to have a Goldilocks scenario, but we will see the mkt. rise in 2024.
I see inflation abating and interest rates going down with strong earnings.
 
mr.h said:
Very hard to have a Goldilocks scenario, but we will see the mkt. rise in 2024.
I see inflation abating and interest rates going down with strong earnings.
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Strong earnings and abating inflation don’t go together very often. When it does i have to believe unemployment is going up allowing profits to go up due to costs dropping vs revenue increases.
 
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90scane said:
Pretty much. The wealthy will fund the replacement of jobs which will cause massive unemployment in some sectors. If we move too fast, those unemployed will have no time to learn skills for jobs that can't be replaced. To further complicate matters, the tax law doesn't have a means of taxing robo taxis. Instead, we tax companies based on unemployment, SS, medicare, etc with no real factor for displaced employees.

In short- AI and robotics could replace/displace millions of employees. Those humans will be needing jobs or government help if the move happens to fast.

Ironic that many are worried about immigration causing these issues when in fact, AI is a massive concern for jobs and population collapse. The population collapse is a real concern as it is well documented that humans without purpose don’t reproduce. We are already in a population decline.
Click to expand...
You might be interested in our AI thread. I suspect it will become a lot more active in the coming years.

 
8:30 AMUSDContinuing Jobless Claims(May 17) TRADE NOW1.791M-0.501.8M1.787M
8:30 AMUSDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q1) PREL TRADE NOW3.6% -0.503.7%3.7%
8:30 AMUSDGoods Trade Balance(Apr) PREL TRADE NOW$-99.4B-1.52$-91.8B$-92.5B
8:30 AMUSDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q1) PREL 1.3% 0.001.3%1.6%
8:30 AMUSDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q1) PREL 3.1% 0.003.1%3.1%
8:30 AMUSDInitial Jobless Claims(May 24) TRADE NOW219K0.10218K216K
8:30 AMUSDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(May 24)222.5K--220K
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q1)PREL 3.3% --3.4%
8:30 AMUSDWholesale Inventories(Apr) PREL TRADE NOW0.2% 1.35-0.1%-0.4%
Real GDP higher than expected
GDP price index stays the same
Consumption down fractionally
Jobless claims higher fractionally
Could be signs of inflation going down, but definitely not rising
The economy is growing, but at a slower pace
More consumption expenditures tomorrow…..
 
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90scane said:
Already has started happening. **** AI, onlyfans chats are AI for some popular women, then you have full on *** robots with AI for conversations…

It is a major concern for the human population. If you have young kids, you would know how much time that generation spends in the virtual world. That alone is a concern as they won’t know how to build real world relationships. Case in point: two of my teen sons broke up with girls because those girls only knew how to communicate via text/snapchat and would go silent when trying to talk in person.
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My wife hosted a panel with federal judges, which is to say their clerks are from the top schools and top ranked kids from them. When asked what their biggest concerns are they said it was having to train these clerks how to answer phones to take messages.
 
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