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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Durable Goods Orders(Mar)3.2% 1.380.8%-1.2%
USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(Mar)3.5% 0.900%-0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Mar)0.3% 1.58-0.2%-0.3%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Mar)-0.4% -1.920.2%-0.7%
Wholesale Inventories(Mar) PREL 0.1% -0.290.2%0.1%
strong durable goods #’s
personal consumption #’s Friday
 
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mr.h said:
Consumer is still spending
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Which is bad.......P&G is raising prices, so is MCD, so is Chipotle, etc. etc. So the Fed is going to keep raising. Unless the bank crisis gets much worse, you are looking at more hikes.
 
SpikeUM said:
Which is bad.......P&G is raising prices, so is MCD, so is Chipotle, etc. etc. So the Fed is going to keep raising. Unless the bank crisis gets much worse, you are looking at more hikes.
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Powell, today, wouldn’t say he will pause at the next meeting, so we are looking at another 25 raise.
P&G also boosted its profit, so some of the hike is because of strong demand. The same with MCD.
Im just being argumentative….lol
 
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Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q1) PREL TRADE NOW1.1% -4.042%2.6%
Initial Jobless Claims(Apr 21)230K-248K246K
Economy is slowing..jobs still strong
META exploding
Dollar weakening
 
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Powell isn’t allowed to comment as the FED has a dark time before the fomc meeting.

Expect.25 and another in June unless banks fail which I expect
 
My concern dating back to 2021 is stagflation....in the beginning it was just something to think about, but as the economy slows down but consumers keep spending, the probability of it happening keeps creeping up.

Not Volcker era bad, but enough to keep the Fed from cutting, or even forcing them to increase a bit more from here.
 
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90scane said:
Powell isn’t allowed to comment as the FED has a dark time before the fomc meeting.

Expect.25 and another in June unless banks fail which I expect
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We are seeing both consumers and businesses starting to cut spending. What Powell may not understand is that once companies raise prices, it’s take much longer for price cuts. We are already seeing a credit crunch. We are already seeing economic growth slowing. Unfortunately the Fed believes that only mass unemployment is the answer.
I may be wrong, but this is a recipe for stagflation.
 
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mr.h said:
We are seeing both consumers and businesses starting to cut spending. What Powell may not understand is that once companies raise prices, it’s take much longer for price cuts. We are already seeing a credit crunch. We are already seeing economic growth slowing. Unfortunately the Fed believes that only mass unemployment is the answer.
I may be wrong, but this is a recipe for stagflation.
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Quite possibly. Pausing in May and June would give time to see the economic trajectory. Observe what prices are this summer versus last summer in the wake of no rate changes.
 
07:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Mar)0.3% 00.3%0.3%

07:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Mar)4.6% -4.5%4.6%
07:30USDEmployment Cost Index(Q1)1.2% -1.1%1%
07:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Mar)0.1% -0.3%0.3%
07:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Mar)4.2% -4.6%5.1%
07:30USDPersonal Income (MoM)(Mar)0.3% -0.2%0.3%
07:30USDPersonal Spending(Mar)0% --0.1%0.2%
 
Super Mario Dancing GIF

Go CMCSA! Look at what a dividend can do for investors, right DIS? 😒
 
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JD08 said:
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100% will get worse not better. The mechanics and fundamentals point to more failures until the rates drop OR Congress bails out banks. This is the third time in history that inflation is high while money is actually getting pulled out of the system. I almost wish the FED would raise rates 1pt to force the mark to market for banks, market corrections, then drop rates sooner assuming inflation gets under control. Sadly, the process will be much longer.
 
I’ve heard it is far more than $80B. Let me see if I can find an article.

Then you have reits that are struggling like Blackstone.

I just wish I could get an interest only loan for 10 years on my home. Most people live in a home for 7 years. Thus, the appreciation is profit and you increase your cashflow.
 
90scane said:
I’ve heard it is far more than $80B. Let me see if I can find an article.

Then you have reits that are struggling like Blackstone.

I just wish I could get an interest only loan for 10 years on my home. Most people live in a home for 7 years. Thus, the appreciation is profit and you increase your cashflow.
Click to expand...

I thought that number from the article was too low as well, but the difference might be in properties whose loans are NOT maturing but arent generating enough cash for debt service.
 
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