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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

bank stocks up..
if we pause, we should have a stock market bump, until weaker, recessionary numbers appear, because of high interest rates.
 
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JD08 said:
Why is my late fee now $250?
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When was the last time you actually went into your bank?
They are so understaffed it feels like they are closing. Of course online banking is most to blame, but closings will happen.
 
From ML today

Risk, not risk-free, source of tightening

With deposit outflows in motion, banks will be looking at higher funding costs and ultimately charge more to borrowers. Overall, credit conditions have meaningfully tightened and risk premia have moved off of complacent levels. Moral hazard may be alive and well with the FDIC guaranteeing deposits for the failed institutions, but with equity and debt not supported, capital market participants are taking a meaningful hit.

Fed easing + credit tightening = worst spot for stocks

Meanwhile, the rates market has done an about-face, and is now pricing in two rate cuts by year end (vs. three hikes just a week ago). Before equity bulls start to celebrate about a Fed pivot, remember that easy Fed policy and tightening credit conditions has been the worst phase for stocks. Of the four scenarios based on easy vs tight Fed vs credit, Fed easing (falling 2-yr yield) and credit conditions tightening (widening credit spread) is the regime typically seen in a recession (Exhibit 1). Since last Wednesday, the 2-yr yield fell by ~100bps and the credit spread rose by ~20bps. Historically, Fed easing and credit tightening has resulted in losses for the S&P 500, the only regime of the four during which we have seen losses on average.
 
mr.h said:
When was the last time you actually went into your bank?
They are so understaffed it feels like they are closing. Of course online banking is most to blame, but closings will happen.
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This would explain why credit unions are eating their lunch.
 
JD08 said:
This would explain why credit unions are eating their lunch.
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Its another of those macro issues that the government is not focusing on. When non banks are allowed to perform banking activities, it takes away revenue from the banks.
 
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SpikeUM said:
From Barron's today on BAC

Bank of America had $862 billion of debt securities on its balance sheet totaling roughly $3 trillion at the end of 2022. Of that, $632 billion of bonds, mostly federal agency mortgage securities, were classified as held to maturity for accounting purposes.

Banks don’t have to record losses on changes in those securities’ value, cutting into their capital, unless the debt is sold. Still, holdings in that bucket, which carry minimal or no credit risk, were nonetheless showing a loss of about $109 billion at the end of 2022 due to the rise in interest rates over the past year.
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The new facility basically allows banks with treasuries to get 100 pennies for every dollar invested anytime they want. This is a MASSIVE bank bailout and mostly impacts the large banks that have a ton of treasuries while the smaller/regional banks are left to fail. Here comes nationalized banking excluding credit unions.

 
In that same video it sounds like the Treasury and Executive branch didn't like the buyers who wanted to buy SVB. Government shouldn't have let this happen and when it did they F'd up a 2nd (blocking a buyer) and 3rd time (bailing out the banks).
 
In roughly ten days we get to see if the FED hikes into a potential(likely actual) banking crisis OR pauses to let inflation run 4% higher than they have wanted.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
@CFLCane

******* DME offering
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Plant finally on and producing. Out of testing and into optimization. They're doing an online investor conference Thursday and the annual shareholder meeting is april 26th . https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/oil-gas-virtual-investor-conference-agenda-announced .


DESERT MOUNTAIN ENERGY COMPLETES WORK ON McCAULEY HELIUM PROCESSING FACILITY, by @newswire

TSX.V: DMEU.S. OTC: DMEHFFrankfurt: QM01
ceo.ca ceo.ca

The Company is pleased to announce that GENERON has completed its work on the McCauley Helium Processing Facility. The initial sale will be going to an Arizona-based industrial gas supplier, which is supplying its own trailer. The Company expects to work through various combinations of gas mixtures, concentrations and final product purity levels over a 90-day period. The industrial gas purchaser understands that the first deliveries will be a mixture of different final grades of helium ranging from a low of 99.995% to a high of 99.99995%.

"Our team understands that our shareholders have waited a long time for the completion of the McCauley Helium Processing Facility," said Robert Rohlfing, CEO of DME. "Initiating helium sales as a vertically integrated primary producer of helium has been our long-term goal and we are proud to have accomplished it."

The Company is pleased with the performance characteristics thus far. Initial runs for plant configurations are extremely important with respect to future final design and sizing. DME has proven its design works in assorted applications and gas fields.
 
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Things are getting political

PPI tomorrow…commodity inflation
Retail sales..consumer spending
 
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