Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Thus you are trying to back the current admin but don’t believe your own words. Take your D glasses off when talking finance.
I’m saying that rising interest rates are slowing and could deeply hurt the economy, causing a recession, but the strength of the economy has held up to this point. The bank failure is a good example, but this is in no way a 2008 event.
 
Consumer spending could very quickly abate if they feel the bank issue is a repeat of 2008. It didn't help that you had elected officials on a hot mic calling for the media to downplay the SVB/Signature takeovers.
This is not 2008. There will be no run on the banks. I was going to mention the Todd-Frank Act, but decided against it.
 
Except for the run on SVB and Signature.

There is a run on other banks too, I can tell you firsthand. Best *guess* is that First Republic and others are taken over in the next few weeks and months.

Clarification: When I say taken over, I mean they are most likely to be bought by stronger banks.
 
From Barron's today on BAC

Bank of America had $862 billion of debt securities on its balance sheet totaling roughly $3 trillion at the end of 2022. Of that, $632 billion of bonds, mostly federal agency mortgage securities, were classified as held to maturity for accounting purposes.

Banks don’t have to record losses on changes in those securities’ value, cutting into their capital, unless the debt is sold. Still, holdings in that bucket, which carry minimal or no credit risk, were nonetheless showing a loss of about $109 billion at the end of 2022 due to the rise in interest rates over the past year.
 
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BTW, stepping back and looking at the macro picture, rule one of investing is DONT FIGHT THE FED. Those that chose to ignore that basic rule got hurt, and that includes the risk management idiots at a lot of banks, the FDIC, OCC, etc.
What if the Fed like less than 2 years ago was projecting rates to be like 1% and banks purchased assets accordingly, then the Fed made the largest rate hike in history shortly after....
 
Short term, probably. Medium and longer terms, we havent solved any of the core issues, so we will be stuck in a yo-yo environment.
Are you saying the yield curve will end its inversion?
 
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07:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Feb) 304.07--302.7

07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb) 0.5% 0.980.4% 0.4%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb) 5.5% 05.5% 5.6%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Feb) 300.84-0.05300.86299.17

Inflation numbers meet expectations..beats previous numbers.
Still should come down faster, but it's tome for a pause.
 
07:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Feb)304.07--302.7

07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb)0.5% 0.980.4%0.4%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb)5.5% 05.5%5.6%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Feb)300.84-0.05300.86299.17

Inflation numbers meet expectations..beats previous numbers.
Still should come down faster, but it's tome for a pause.
@Confidence1000 PAUSE
 
Probably nothing will happen, but it *appears* that a lot of SVB executives should be %^@$%@

Silicon Valley Bank, as in the bank that was insolvent and closed by regulators on Friday, is reportedly going through the auction process again, because, well, apparently no one wanted it the first time around.

– SVB Financial Group, as in the parent company of the bank, is no longer the parent company of the bank, as was decided when the FDIC became receiver on Friday.

– SVB Capital, as in the $10 billion venture arm of SVB, has been put up for sale. As I reported yesterday after speaking with LPs, interested buyers include large financial services providers, asset managers, and sovereign wealth funds. Some limited partners are very displeased with communication from the venture firm. “They sent us this platitude email around [yesterday] about how ‘our funds are safe’—but, I mean, is that even true? There’s so much going on there. It’s very, very concerning,” one limited partner told me.

– SVB Securities, as in the investment banking division, is also up for sale. This division has been very busy issuing various statements about how it is still operational, and, more recently, as it “sets the record straight” about its executives.
 
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