- Joined
- Nov 28, 2016
- Messages
- 8,734
Theres around 50b worth of chip plants all being built in phoenix between 2021 and 2026. phoenix will be will #2 in global production behind taiwan
forums
Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion
- Thread starter Bird4um
- Start date
Advertisement
Retail chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS
Would say that retail is killing it.
Exports chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IQ
Looks pretty dang close to 2007-2010 (maybe we are at the bottom similar to Dec 2008)
Consumers are spending with consumer debt increasing. I would fully expect the democrats to pass a 2023 or 2024 American Recovery Act much like 2009 with tax relief.
If Dec 2022 = Dec 2008, we still don't hit bottom until March (much like March 2009)
The BIG difference between 2008-2010 and 2021-2023, the recession started in Jan 2008 and we just had positive GDP in Q3 thus, we are likely still months away from the actual recession. Stocks have baked in rate hikes and inflation, have they baked in an actual recession with negative growth?
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
I think a softer landing is priced in, along with smaller increases.
Advertisement
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
Yahoo finance
5:00 PM
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that recent inflation data makes him more comfortable with the idea of raising rates 50 basis points at the central bank’s December meeting.
"Looking toward the FOMC’s December meeting, the data of the past few weeks have made me more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50-basis-point hike," Waller said in a speech at an economic forum in Arizona, later adding: “If the FOMC were to step down to a 50-basis-point increase, it is important to remember that this would still be a very significant tightening action."
5:00 PM
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that recent inflation data makes him more comfortable with the idea of raising rates 50 basis points at the central bank’s December meeting.
"Looking toward the FOMC’s December meeting, the data of the past few weeks have made me more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50-basis-point hike," Waller said in a speech at an economic forum in Arizona, later adding: “If the FOMC were to step down to a 50-basis-point increase, it is important to remember that this would still be a very significant tightening action."
![crossover22[]_[]](https://data.canesinsight.com/avatars/m/2/2075.jpg?1518149361){kind=avatar}
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2012
- Messages
- 19,988
Your boy is doing a great job with the economy man. Market is killing it lol.
The Fed isn’t a democracy. Powell makes the decisions.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
Yes, he has the final say, but he’s going to raise 50bps..It is written…lol
Advertisement
The big difference between '07 and now is the ridiculous deficit.
In '07 we had really bad private debt and in '22 we have really bad public debt.
Posted this in Geopolitics but it can fit here and under the inflation discussion.
mr.h, this is yet another major factor in the markets. The USA isn't going to protect the shipping channels of the world. This will lead to more supply-side inflation as the cost of shipping anything will jump and especially oil.
As of now, I would expect the SP500 to hit the bottom around Q3-Q4 2023 with a price of around 3000-3300. If war expands outside of Ukraine, all bets are off as it could expand to many areas: East Asia, Gulf, Europe.
mr.h, this is yet another major factor in the markets. The USA isn't going to protect the shipping channels of the world. This will lead to more supply-side inflation as the cost of shipping anything will jump and especially oil.
As of now, I would expect the SP500 to hit the bottom around Q3-Q4 2023 with a price of around 3000-3300. If war expands outside of Ukraine, all bets are off as it could expand to many areas: East Asia, Gulf, Europe.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
First I would like to bring out that Powell was hired during Trump’s Presidency and I am sure Trump insisted that interest rates stay low or Powell would be replaced. Just like he manipulated and threatened the FBI. He does not have the final word as you said. Everything is political.
I don’t believe we have to go down to a 2% inflation rate so soon. The economy will grow if we get inflation down to 4% In 2023. Job numbers will go down. CPI and PPI were lower. Housing is declining. Everything I have read is showing supply is opening up.
Geopolitical problems are a constant, with the exception of Russian oil and Ukrainian wheat. I also believe that rate hikes will be at 50bps or less as long as inflation numbers are declining. We will see if inflation declines, with lower rate hikes, can be absorbed easier and is probably priced in. A lot of middle class workers are taking advantage of higher interest rates to park there money.
Last edited:
Advertisement
Powell is the head until 2028. The only political pressure on Powell will be in 2024 IF inflation is still high or unemployment is high with no change in position by the FED.
Housing is declining and makes up 25% of the economy. If transaction volume stays frozen, 2M people will lose their jobs. Thus, the FED will have to do QE in Q1-Q2 of 2023 which isn't likely as we are still at 7.7%. Inflation won't get down to 2-4% until Q3-Q4 thus we have a 6-month window that the FED will likely keep raising or stay at high levels causing a meltdown in real estate and then, in turn, a recession leading to bad earnings for wall street.
The current rally sure looks like a technical rally from portfolio managers trying to keep their bonuses in place. Remember July had a 20% bear market rally and where do we stand today? Bear market rallies happen a ton. I'm just not on board with the idea that inflation is almost under control and the FED can pause. I'm also not on board with the outcome being rosy if the FED only pauses. The real estate market needs lower rates and if that happens we could see a big flip back to a seller's market. Today's market is a frozen market with limited supply and limited demand.
One more big factor, foreign investors own 40% of use equities. IF those investors have a local bad economy, they alone could cause a selloff of US equities even if the underlying performances of the equities aren't bad and the US economy isn't bad. On the same front, around 40% of SP500 profits come from foreign economies.
Thus, the focus on what the FED does is only one factor.
Thus, the focus on what the FED does is only one factor.
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2012
- Messages
- 16,298
Advertisement
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
The housing melting down is the result of what the fed wants, along with the drop in the prices of the commodities used, thusly lowering inflated prices. Job numbers will drop too, but we are fortunate to have new jobs, in new fields, coming together. War is usually good for business and we’ll need to replace stockpiles of weapons. There are still economists that believe we will have a softer landing. You are right that the Fed will continue to raise rates, hopefully at lower rate, because we need to wait and see how inflation reacts. That is not pausing.
Like I said, the middle class now has a safe place to park their money, which is a good thing. We are already seeing grocery and fuel prices dropping, and autos, new and used are dropping. We are also in better shape than Europe and China. Right now I don’t see a deep Recession. Rates will drop. This is an economic cycle.
Last edited:
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
Reuters:
BENGALURU, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will downshift in December to deliver a 50-basis-point interest rate hike, but economists polled by Reuters say a longer period of U.S. central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook.
U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases.
But the latest Reuters poll shows forecasts for inflation in the coming year and into next are slightly higher than thought one month ago, suggesting it is not time yet to consider an imminent pause in the Fed's tightening campaign.
The Fed is set to raise its federal funds rate by half a percentage point to the 4.25%-4.50% range at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, according to 78 of 84 economists who participated in a Nov. 14-17 Reuters poll.
BENGALURU, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will downshift in December to deliver a 50-basis-point interest rate hike, but economists polled by Reuters say a longer period of U.S. central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook.
U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases.
But the latest Reuters poll shows forecasts for inflation in the coming year and into next are slightly higher than thought one month ago, suggesting it is not time yet to consider an imminent pause in the Fed's tightening campaign.
The Fed is set to raise its federal funds rate by half a percentage point to the 4.25%-4.50% range at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, according to 78 of 84 economists who participated in a Nov. 14-17 Reuters poll.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 5,215
More US Manufacturing :
First Solar, the largest American solar panel maker, will invest up to $1.2 billion to ramp up production of US-made solar panels. The announcement follows the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in August, which incentivizes domestic clean energy manufacturing.
November 16 update: First Solar today announced that it will site its fourth American PV solar module manufacturing facility in Lawrence County, Alabama, southwest of Huntsville.
we need to build pants in West Virginia and help the coal miners transition.
First Solar, the largest American solar panel maker, will invest up to $1.2 billion to ramp up production of US-made solar panels. The announcement follows the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in August, which incentivizes domestic clean energy manufacturing.
November 16 update: First Solar today announced that it will site its fourth American PV solar module manufacturing facility in Lawrence County, Alabama, southwest of Huntsville.
we need to build pants in West Virginia and help the coal miners transition.
Advertisement