Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[Gatorhater]

Some of my friends who support Biden are on pins and needles everytime Biden gives a speech. They're really worried he's going to say something damaging just like Trump does.

Joe has media and establishment on his side so the damage is minimal. Trump is Trumpzilla and only gets stronger so it hurts less than thought. I learned not to grind my teeth when Donald goes Donald. Joe has long history of it so any slippage in his sanity we go unnoticed. That old grandpa doopy look might bring him some sympathy votes and protect him while Trump feasts on his corpse. What amazes me is the he was the best Democrats could come up with. I thought several others would have been better. Harris looked like a threat but she ended up with a glass jaw. I think she was the only one Trump worried about at all, I know I did. The problem with all of them is they never get battle experience. Their entire career is sugar coated with no real street fight scars. Trump is like a grizzly bear and you are going to bleed and need large gun. Joe talks street but looks like a dandy but I don't think this is about him losing the race. Trump will win or lose it.

 

[Gatorhater]

All this BLM and Corona outrage will be harnessed into a get out and vote campaign. Trump lost the last popular vote. He will get crushed in the next one if minorities and the youth turn out. Imo of course. Certainly Biden is a weak candidate and capable of ******* it up.

Not sure the China virus will get blames on Trump. He danced nicely on both side of shutting down and came out strong on opening. The governors took his bait and grabbed the hook on the reopen. I think they will suffer for the delays. The protests will hurt him but they can cut two ways. In the 72 election cycle the level and number of issues being protested were countless but the violence resulted in a backlash that got a very unpopular President Nixon a 49 state landslide. I didn't vote for him but just about everyone else did.

I remember being in the "youth" vote, the biggest in history up to then. Us and every youth vote since seem to have too much to do. We fought to get the vote ate 18 and then didn't bother. Trump doesn't need big chucks of minority vote but if those jobs numbers come back before October, I suspect he will get more than people think.

As far as Biden goes, I don't think anything he says will matter. Media will not turn on him because he is all they have. This is not 2016. Trump is not outsider banging on the gates. He wins or loses this election. Biden in a non factor. Harris could have mattered but she couldn't take a shot. The biggest threat to Trump base on more than just Trump hate, was Gabbard. Young, vet, attractive and full of **** and vinegar. She is too far left for me but was the one that scared me. Fortunately the left establishment hated her for some reason.

Either way, I am glad to be a Cane. Stay safe.

 

[Empirical Cane]

this may be the single worst piece of advice ever posted on any message board in the history of message boards. if someone took your awful advice they just lost out on the greatest 15 day surge in the history of the Dow Jones.

Bold. Very bold.

Have you seen some of the other posts on here!?

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

All this covid/blm is great and all but its freaking june

People are already discussing covid less and less because of BLM, you think BLM protests will keep happening towards september? Doubtful

People also have short term memory, I agree with the BLM protests and have no issues with it, but do you think the main voters, white, actually give two ***** about it and aren't just in the moment with it because they want to feel all good and dandy like they did something?

I think that both BLM, and most certainly CV-19 (its spiking now, and I would expect worse during flu season) will still be somewhat relevant on election day. One, or the other will be the main story for a good while. And so many people have been affected, and will be affected, it will take its toll. You can count on an increase in African-American voter turnout, for one. Also, you don't need to change all the white people's minds. Just suburban women 25-40 for example and its game over. They are in play, big time.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

What it comes down to is a lot of people are going to do what they did with Bill, George and Barak. Their going to say this guys no good, he's ruining the country and I wish I never voted for him. Then, they'll turn around and vote for Trump because he hasn't quite
crossed the line.

Well, thats very much a political opinion, and nothing more. Many feel that Trump crossed the line, backed up over it, got out of his car, took a **** down a kid's neck and rubbed his face on said line. Then many feel the way you clearly do too.

 

[Empirical Cane]

The campaigns (and other organizations) do scientific state-specific swing-state polling. The national stuff is important for sentiment, but its the handful of states that decide the election that are seeing numerous polls in the field continuously. That said, no one like to vote for a loser, and seeing your candidate behind significantly nationally can hurt turnout. What's interesting to me is that, (IMO) Trump won because people basically wanted to blow the whole thing up, and turned out to lob a grenade. With Covid-19, and Black Lives Matter, Biden could get the vote out as people of all races are very passionate right now about the pro-equality agenda in the cities. I saw a stat (I am paraphrasing) that if 5% of the African-American voters who stayed home in 2016 in any one of Milwaukee, Detroit, etc had turned up, the election would have flipped.

FYI: people who follow this stuff carefully for financial reasons (or other) know that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems that occurred in 2016. Not saying they are ironclad, but they are supposedly much improved.

Let me put it this way... if Trump improves by 5 points (that's huge) in every single state, Biden will win handily. So contrary to all the supposed improvements made to the polling, Trump needs a big, big swing to get back on top. He's in real trouble in MN, PA and MI right now, of course NC, AZ, WI, OH and FL are in play, and nationally he is in double digit disapproval land.

You can't see the internals here, but this is good way to keep up on the public polling:

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Latest Polls

www.realclearpolitics.com

POTUS 45 is going to need a Hillary-esque level of incompetence from Biden campaign to get re-elected.

If only he could shut his mouth and stay of twitter, he would have won easily.

Impossible for him to win? No, but his headwinds are even stronger now than in 2016.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

I don't deal in options or shorts, so if you are high risk and already up, I would back away. If you were just conventionally holding a stock like Delta, then yes. I do see more upside to them, assuming no time limit. Keep in mind, business is down TODAY. Also, if their competition folds, they get the business in a post COVID world.

What if I told you you could "deal" in options AND shorts... in the same trade no less, and it was less risky than simply buying common stock?

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

What if I told you you could "deal" in options AND shorts... in the same trade no less, and it was less risky than simply buying common stock?

Of course you can, especially as a hedging strategy used around earning reports time.

 

[CFLCane]

POTUS 45 is going to need a Hillary-esque level of incompetence from Biden campaign to get re-elected.

If only he could shut his mouth and stay of twitter, he would have won easily.

Impossible for him to win? No, but his headwinds are even stronger now than in 2016.

The tv ads from pacs that just started an will continue to roll into november are going to be absolutely brutal for Trump. His own words in montage form will be his undoing imo.

 

[Empirical Cane]

The tv ads from pacs that just started an will continue to roll into november are going to be absolutely brutal for Trump. His own words in montage form will be his undoing imo.

He certainly doesn't help himself.

It's a shame, because it distracts from his (mostly) successful policies.

Also, real risk Rs lose the Senate. Watch out US if that happens.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Of course you can, especially as a hedging strategy used around earning reports time.

I like to buy out of the money calls. And sell the same amount of out of the money puts of the same security and date. You cost is the difference between what the call cost you, and what the put made you. Sometimes, you're in the black from the start, and holding free calls. I have one right now where the calls are up over 200% and the puts are "up" 25%. My spread cost was like 4 cents. Bought the calls for 50 cents and sold the puts for 44 cents on avg. So imagine the % return when you add up the total profit from both trades from a 4 cent investment (per share)?

Of course if the stock plummets, you are obligated to buy the stock at the put price. So you do it with a stock you want to buy anyway, because if you are forced to buy it (assuming you don't close your positions), you get to buy a stock you wanted anyway, but cheaper. The goal is to do this on something you think will go higher. Make big money on the calls, and let the puts expire worthless so you bank 100% of the premium you were paid.

 

[CFLCane]

He certainly doesn't help himself.

It's a shame, because it distracts from his (mostly) successful policies.

Also, real risk Rs lose the Senate. Watch out US if that happens.

One the recent ads below. Wall st will have a full on meltdown if the Ds have all 3 branches.

Redirect Notice

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I like to buy out of the money calls. And sell the same amount of out of the money puts of the same security and date. You cost is the difference between what the call cost you, and what the put made you. Sometimes, you're in the black from the start, and holding free calls. I have one right now where the calls are up over 200% and the puts are "up" 25%. My spread cost was like 4 cents. Bought the calls for 50 cents and sold the puts for 44 cents on avg. So imagine the % return when you add up the total profit from both trades from a 4 cent investment (per share)?

Of course if the stock plummets, you are obligated to buy the stock at the put price. So you do it with a stock you want to buy anyway, because if you are forced to buy it (assuming you don't close your positions), you get to buy a stock you wanted anyway, but cheaper. The goal is to do this on something you think will go higher. Make big money on the calls, and let the puts expire worthless so you bank 100% of the premium you were paid.

What stock is that?

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

I'd rather not say for a personal reason, and the opportunity has long passed. But they are out there if you put the work in. It was certainly easier when things were very undervalued. Find a stock you like to move upward, find a call you like on it, then start looking at puts with the same expiration date to offset the price off the calls.

For example:

XYZ is trading at $5. Buy the $8 calls (assuming you think this is a good investment) and then take a look at the $2/$3/$4 puts. Obviously the $2 puts are the more desirable, but they will generate less income. See what the cost spread is.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I'd rather not say for a personal reason, and the opportunity has long passed. But they are out there if you put the work in. It was certainly easier when things were very undervalued. Find a stock you like to move upward, find a call you like on it, then start looking at puts with the same expiration date to offset the price off the calls.

For example:

XYZ is trading at $5. Buy the $8 calls (assuming you think this is a good investment) and then take a look at the $2/$3/$4 puts. Obviously the $2 puts are the more desirable, but they will generate less income. See what the cost spread is.

No that’s fine, I understand the concept. I didn’t mean to put you on the spot asking about the specific stock.

 

[GladeCane]

The tv ads from pacs that just started an will continue to roll into november are going to be absolutely brutal for Trump. His own words in montage form will be his undoing imo.

Biden is giving the Republicans a lot of material also.

 

[CFLCane]

Biden is giving the Republicans a lot of material also.

They should both ride off into the sunset on a golf cart together.

 

[GladeCane]

They should both ride off into the sunset on a golf cart together.

LMFAO!

 

[TheEye]

What if I told you you could "deal" in options AND shorts... in the same trade no less, and it was less risky than simply buying common stock?

I doubt it is less risky than a diversified portfolio held over decades. Yes, you can tap dance over triple digit percentages, but as soon as you make the wrong call you are in a world of hurt.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

I doubt it is less risky than a diversified portfolio held over decades. Yes, you can tap dance over triple digit percentages, but as soon as you make the wrong call you are in a world of hurt.

I don't think you understand the concept of paring those options and how it de-risks you.

Let's say we both like FB stock and think its going to $160 before, say, June '21. The common is trading at $100. I think its going up. You think its going up. You buy 1000 shares at $100. You now have $100k at risk.

A bit about my strategy... (I most certainly didn't create this btw) it costs you nothing... or close to nothing, or yields an immediate profit, yet gives you free or near free calls that can make you a lot of money. How can it be risky when you are not exposing capital?

I buy $140 calls (10 contracts) for $2.50. That costs me $2,500. I SELL $70 puts (10 contracts) for $2.40. That PAYS me $2,400. What is my net cost right now? $100. If FB goes to say, $180 three months later, you make an $80,000 profit. My $100 investment would be worth approx $50,000. And I only had to "risk" $100.

The worst case scenario in our situation, is that our thesis is wrong, and the underlying stock drops. If it drops to a level between the price it was at when we executed this strategy and the strike price of the put, let's say, $80, you lose $20k and my calls expire worthless and I get to keep what I sold the put for. In other words, I lose $100. Which investment was riskier? If it really tanks to below the $70 put price, then my calls expire worthless, and I am forced to buy the underlying stock at the put price (because remember, I sold someone the right to sell me FB at $70). Which means I just bought 1000 shares of FB at $70. While you bought it at $100. Which investment was riskier?

Keep in mind that I can sell my calls and buy to cover my puts at any time along the way if I choose to and walk. As the common moves up, my calls become worth more, and I can cover the puts I shorted for less than I sold them for.