All is good as long as : Trump/Biden is president (not Sanders), Fed keeps rates low (projected to stay at historic lows for a year or two), energy prices stay under control (looks that way), and no major virus issues. The prospect for all this to happen is promising right now.
Only the pilots are unionized.
Good for you. August is long time in summer for stock market and 330% is serious money to leave on table. On the other hand, if economy continues to recover fast and Trump wins in Nov(which I see as very likely, it is hard to see the top on the market. I'm old so I like taking my profits, but have regretted it many times. Good luck either way.
Nicely put about ... like buying right now.... I will be stealing that one. I've stayed away from options only because I hate beating on timing and picking the stock. I never leverage with margin for the same reason. Since I never gamble rent money, I like to have the choice to hang on as long as I choose. Not saying that is smart all the time.
Hope you bought a lot of contracts.
Interesting anomaly. I have a lot of friends that support Trump and a lot that support Biden. Most of the Trump supporters won't do so in public, but the Biden supporters mostly have no problem voicing their support. This may have something to do with Trump's polling numbers.
It is a little dangerous to "come out" as a Trump supporter. I'm old and long ago made but still I have held back at work because the establishment type, both parties, are scared, badly scared and a scared dog is dangerous. Put I have to admit that I welcome polls but never ever tell them the truth. I play their game and give misinformation by tell them I voted for Trump last time but will not this time. I am independent so they eat it up. I would not be surprised if lots of Trump supporters do the same. Why not? Trump tracts our donations and must have good idea if he has loss any votes. No one I know who voted for him has changed their minds.
Biden may very well run up the numbers in California, New York and Illinois, but that doesn't hurt Trump at all. It only makes Biden look artifically strong nationally. Its the swing states that matter and Trump is polling a lot better.
Some of my friends who support Biden are on pins and needles everytime Biden gives a speech. They're really worried he's going to say something damaging just like Trump does.
The campaigns (and other organizations) do scientific state-specific swing-state polling. The national stuff is important for sentiment, but its the handful of states that decide the election that are seeing numerous polls in the field continuously. That said, no one like to vote for a loser, and seeing your candidate behind significantly nationally can hurt turnout. What's interesting to me is that, (IMO) Trump won because people basically wanted to blow the whole thing up, and turned out to lob a grenade. With Covid-19, and Black Lives Matter, Biden could get the vote out as people of all races are very passionate right now about the pro-equality agenda in the cities. I saw a stat (I am paraphrasing) that if 5% of the African-American voters who stayed home in 2016 in any one of Milwaukee, Detroit, etc had turned up, the election would have flipped.
FYI: people who follow this stuff carefully for financial reasons (or other) know that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems that occurred in 2016. Not saying they are ironclad, but they are supposedly much improved.
Let me put it this way... if Trump improves by 5 points (that's huge) in every single state, Biden will win handily. So contrary to all the supposed improvements made to the polling, Trump needs a big, big swing to get back on top. He's in real trouble in MN, PA and MI right now, of course NC, AZ, WI, OH and FL are in play, and nationally he is in double digit disapproval land.
You can't see the internals here, but this is good way to keep up on the public polling:
Biden has major flaws, as does Trump but the difference is Biden will be forced to answer a lot of tough questions from now to the election. That, and he likely has some cognitive issues, like me, but I'm not running for president.
What it comes down to is a lot of people are going to do what they did with Bill, George and Barak. Their going to say this guys no good, he's ruining the country and I wish I never voted for him. Then, they'll turn around and vote for Trump because he hasn't quiteThe campaigns (and other organizations) do scientific state-specific swing-state polling. The national stuff is important for sentiment, but its the handful of states that decide the election that are seeing numerous polls in the field continuously. That said, no one like to vote for a loser, and seeing your candidate behind significantly nationally can hurt turnout. What's interesting to me is that, (IMO) Trump won because people basically wanted to blow the whole thing up, and turned out to lob a grenade. With Covid-19, and Black Lives Matter, Biden could get the vote out as people of all races are very passionate right now about the pro-equality agenda in the cities. I saw a stat (I am paraphrasing) that if 5% of the African-American voters who stayed home in 2016 in any one of Milwaukee, Detroit, etc had turned up, the election would have flipped.
FYI: people who follow this stuff carefully for financial reasons (or other) know that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems that occurred in 2016. Not saying they are ironclad, but they are supposedly much improved.
Let me put it this way... if Trump improves by 5 points (that's huge) in every single state, Biden will win handily. So contrary to all the supposed improvements made to the polling, Trump needs a big, big swing to get back on top. He's in real trouble in MN, PA and MI right now, of course NC, AZ, WI, OH and FL are in play, and nationally he is in double digit disapproval land.
You can't see the internals here, but this is good way to keep up on the public polling: