Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[mr.h]

December 17-18 the Fed will announce a small rate cut. Afterwards it’s a Christmas rally if it’s not happening before then.

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[mr.h]

Hoping for a rate cut rally and a Santa rally…
2024 will end up as a great year for the market.

 

[TheEye]

New resurgence in crypto.

 

[mr.h]

Dow on losing streak…Apple, Tesla, Amazon and Google hit new highs…
Wednesday at 2:00 Fed interest rate decision
Thursday GDP
Friday..Core personal consumption expenditures..

 

[mr.h]

Intel is dying, AMD has fully taken their place as the king of CPUs. They are good for hardware but suck with software. Right now their GPUs and are basically only successful in Gaming systems. NVidia is just furthering their lead with consumer GPUs and AI training. Large scale training clusters it's Nvidia or nothing. And those are only getting bigger and bigger, since as of yet there has been no evidence that training scale doesn't lead to better results....

The issue with them is their software and drivers. As of right now they are the only real alt to NVidia though. Tenstorrent will be a true competitor eventually with Jim Keller leading them. But they're private so...

NVDA has meetings in Vegas on Jan. 7-8, pushing new product lines and advancements.

 

[JD08]

 

[mr.h]

One financial analyst said that owning the Mag 7 is a defensive strategy….lol
Watch NVDA rebound…Big conference Jan. 7-8

 

[mr.h]

Fed rate decision at 2:00

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[JD08]

 

[561caneforever]

If you are worried about inflation why are you decreasing the Fed Funds Rate?

 

[90scane]

If you are worried about inflation why are you decreasing the Fed Funds Rate?

Dual mandate and the Biden employment numbers are cooked.

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Nov 2024 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[mr.h]

8:30 AM
USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 6) TRADE NOW
1.874M -0.65 1.89M 1.879M
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q3) TRADE NOW
2.2% 0.86 2.1% 2.1%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) TRADE NOW
3.1% 0.87 2.8% 2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q3)
1.9% 0.00 1.9% 1.9%
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13) TRADE NOW
220K -0.89 230K 242K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Dec 13)
225.5K - - 224.25K
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q3)
1.5% 0.00 1.5% 1.5%
8:30 AM
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec) TRADE NOW
-16.4 -1.85 3 -5.5

GDP annualized up
initial jobless claims down
Core personal consumption up fractionally
Personal consumption expenditures as expected
Philly Fed Manufacturing down bigly
Overall the fundamentals are strong except for manufacturing.

 

[mr.h]

If you are worried about inflation why are you decreasing the Fed Funds Rate?

Wait till the tariffs are applied. I believe that is what the Fed chair was alluding to.
There is no reason to cook employment numbers if they are adjusted…lmao

 

[mr.h]

Tomorrow…
Core personal consumption MoM and YoY
“After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa”.

Also Congress is trying to pass a spending bill. Musk and Trump want a government shutdown. We had a deal to keep the government open until March. I believe there are enough Republicans to pass a bill. Imo we should eliminate the debt limit. This drama every few months is bullshyt.

 

[mr.h]

8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% -1.58 0.2% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2.8% -1.34 2.9% 2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% 0.00 0.2% 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2.4% -2.04 2.5% 2.3%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Income (MoM) (Nov)
0.3% -0.53 0.4% 0.7%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Spending (Nov)
0.4% -1.34 0.5% 0.3%
Surprisingly core personal consumption which measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States are all down.
Personal income down
Personal spending down

 

[TheEye]

8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% -1.58 0.2% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2.8% -1.34 2.9% 2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% 0.00 0.2% 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2.4% -2.04 2.5% 2.3%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Income (MoM) (Nov)
0.3% -0.53 0.4% 0.7%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Spending (Nov)
0.4% -1.34 0.5% 0.3%
Surprisingly core personal consumption which measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States are all down.
Personal income down
Personal spending down

Well, good thing there was a drop in rates announced this week. Let’s see if it affects those numbers in a few months.

 

[mr.h]

Hoping for a Christmas rally…if we get one, it should go through the first week of January…