forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
6.5% down on rent or home price?

Were you at market rates?

I struggle with larger houses but don’t with smaller houses/ lower rents.
Click to expand...
My units are condos and I rented them out in 2022. Prices have come down on apt. units.
 
Advertisement
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labormeasures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing.
08:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
08:30 USD PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Aug) 3.3% 3.2%
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,850K 1,850K 1,845K
08:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% -0.2%
08:30 USD Core PPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4% 2.5% 2.4%
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 230K 227K 228K
08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 230.75K 230.25K
08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 USD PPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.7% 1.8% 2.1%


Core PPI YoY down ***ex food and energy
Core PPI MoM up Aug.
PPI YOY down
Jobless claims up fractionally
I don’t believe these numbers changed anything for the Fed
Inflation cooling
 
Last edited:
90scane said:
Spike asked me about my outlook in the last couple of pages and I gave him a path forward that could be stocks not falling.
Click to expand...

I agree there is still too much liquidity in the system thats propping up prices, BUT, almost a day doesnt go by that there isnt a bankruptcy (Anthony's Pizza/Burger Fi just went under) or layoffs (Microsoft and Moderna just today). So my best guess is we go down, possibly sharply, but will rebound because of the liquidity.
 
TheEye said:
My units are condos and I rented them out in 2022. Prices have come down on apt. units.
Click to expand...

I am not in condos but I am in multiple PE funds and my rental residential is doing great on the revenue side (rents/occupancy still strong) but they have been pressured on rates, insurance and property taxes, which have all finally started to come down. Whats most attractive now IMO is private real estate credit, since a lot of banks are unable/unwilling to lend.
 
SpikeUM said:
I agree there is still too much liquidity in the system thats propping up prices, BUT, almost a day doesnt go by that there isnt a bankruptcy (Anthony's Pizza/Burger Fi just went under) or layoffs (Microsoft and Moderna just today). So my best guess is we go down, possibly sharply, but will rebound because of the liquidity.
Click to expand...
Deloitte and PwC too.
 
Unemployment getting too high will cause a recession, stock market decline, real estate decline... IMO, the FED has to cut well before we get to 2% inflation. The rich will get richer because they can handle the slowdown by getting cheaper rates.

The FED can get aggressive with cuts but those have a 12-24month lag effect. Congress could provide more fiscal stimulus or use more existing stimulus on the books.
 
Fellow CISers. Lowest mortgage rates today since Feb 2023. Would you lock or wait for the fed next week?
 
Advertisement
JD08 said:
The older I get, the more I understand my father's affection for utilities.
Click to expand...

In the environment we were in during COVID, they didnt make much sense. With rates higher now, usage growing, etc., they make more sense.
 

Consumer sentiment rises for second consecutive month​

US consumers sentiment improved for the second straight month, reaching levels last seen in May and rising about 2% higher than last month's reading.
 
1726254451112.png



1726254491065.jpeg
 
Advertisement
SpikeUM said:
@mr.h Hyman is one of the most respected economists, so you have to pay attention to his calls. Not sure I agree, but it bears keeping an open mind.

Top economist Ed Hyman no longer sees recession coming, flips GDP forecast to positive​

Click to expand...
@SpikeUM
22 hours ago — Evercore offered 10 reasons for the change. They range from unemployment claims remaining low, plentiful liquidity, slowing inflation giving ...

could you list the 10 reasons why he and evercore changed their forecast?
Thanks
 
mr.h said:
@SpikeUM
22 hours ago — Evercore offered 10 reasons for the change. They range from unemployment claims remaining low, plentiful liquidity, slowing inflation giving ...

could you list the 10 reasons why he and evercore changed their forecast?
Thanks
Click to expand...

Ed's reasons are in the article below, as I mentioned earlier I am still bearish and will continue to be, but I will be more open minded to go growth over value/defensive.

 
Back
Top