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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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10:15USDCapacity Utilization(Nov) 78.8% -0.7679.1% 78.7%
10:15USDIndustrial Production (MoM)(Nov) 0.2% -0.230.3% -0.8%
10:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) PREL 51--50.7
10:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL
48.2-2.4449.349.4
10:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Dec) PREL 51.31.5250.650.8
Global services up
global man down…
 
Bird4um said:
Do you own?
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No. I'm 100% private companies, treasuries/CDs, and real estate. Sold all stocks in Feb 2020 and went mostly real estate when everyone else was dumping rentals due to rent payment issues. To offset risks, I have a good amount of treasuries/CDs. SP since Feb 2020 - 40%. My real estate- 200%.

I have invested in MSFT, Visa, MasterCard, Amazon, MongoDB, Intuit, Apple, Tesla, Paycom, Zoom, Docusign, Shopify, Appfolio, and Square over the years.

If history repeats, I expect the market to drop in the next 6-12 months after the FED pivots. It hasn't always happened so it will be interesting. If it does drop, I would consider buying again. Otherwise, I'm feeling pretty good about my portfolio.
 
90scane said:
No. I'm 100% private companies, treasuries/CDs, and real estate. Sold all stocks in Feb 2020 and went mostly real estate when everyone else was dumping rentals due to rent payment issues. To offset risks, I have a good amount of treasuries/CDs. SP since Feb 2020 - 40%. My real estate- 200%.

I have invested in MSFT, Visa, MasterCard, Amazon, MongoDB, Intuit, Apple, Tesla, Paycom, Zoom, Docusign, Shopify, Appfolio, and Square over the years.

If history repeats, I expect the market to drop in the next 6-12 months after the FED pivots. It hasn't always happened so it will be interesting. If it does drop, I would consider buying again. Otherwise, I'm feeling pretty good about my portfolio.
Click to expand...
Still like square? I’m down 40% May add more.
 
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This is unknown territory for me. I think the last time small caps were doing better than large caps was 2021 and it was short lived. I’ve only been in the market since 2018-2019. Theory is small caps should do better, but how much before they get slammed again. Got used to getting abused there. What’s a reasonable area to take profit % wise on small caps?
 
Cmuri said:
This is unknown territory for me. I think the last time small caps were doing better than large caps was 2021 and it was short lived. I’ve only been in the market since 2018-2019. Theory is small caps should do better, but how much before they get slammed again. Got used to getting abused there. What’s a reasonable area to take profit % wise on small caps?
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Small caps are by definition smaller companies that are not as financially strong as larger companies and thus have more expensive debt. So when rates went up, they got hurt.

This week, with the hope of rates easing they are up big. Bottom line, small caps are much more volatile than large caps, and are much more dependent on rates and the economy. Depending on your view about those two next year should guide your decision.
 
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Bird4um said:
Still like square? I’m down 40% May add more.
Click to expand...

I haven't watched them much in the last two years since I left the market. To me, the public stock market is tough to get really good returns. Sure some stocks see great growth but the majority of them have been grown via PE/hedge funds and then taken public with limited upside. Go back 50-75 years and small-cap stocks had real upside potential.

My concern for Square and Toast(less)- they lean on smaller retail for volume and Apple/Google are starting to support touch to checkout into phones. My haircuts are paid by touching my card to her phone...no middleware/hardware needed. If apple/google start offering peer-to-peer or a means to get paid without needing third-party apps, Square will get hit hard (along with Cash App). Paypal is another that I believe will get hurt IF/when apple/google gets into the space. We know Apple is diving into banking more and more with Apple Card, Pay Later... Lastly, zelle currently and soon FEDNOW will eat into Square/Cashapp/Paypal/Venmo. Heck, I do more on Zelle than Venmo by a massive amount.

Toast on the other hand has a good place in the market for restaurants and similar retail.
 
SpikeUM said:
One more note: You usually want to take whatever losses you have to reduce your taxes. You can always buy it back 31 days later if you really like it, and/or buy a similar company, e.g. coke/pepsi, GM/F, etc etc
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There’s a $1500 limit though right?
 
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Cmuri said:
This is unknown territory for me. I think the last time small caps were doing better than large caps was 2021 and it was short lived. I’ve only been in the market since 2018-2019. Theory is small caps should do better, but how much before they get slammed again. Got used to getting abused there. What’s a reasonable area to take profit % wise on small caps?
Click to expand...
Small caps are still 20% off their all time highs. So, there is room to run.
 
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