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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
And you still think we aren't going to blow up the economy with .25? We are way past a soft or no landing IMO.

My safe assumption: many banks will fail beyond the 3 so far. Some insurance companies will fail. Unemployment will jump by 3% (not factoring in the millions who don't get counted). The recession is official at some point in 2023. The FED will be forced to pivot BUT will try to keep rates above 2%. Spreads from banks will remain above 2% due to the new risks of banking. Inflation is going to remain higher than 2%. As rates drop, the economy warms up again along with inflation and the next cycle will be much shorter.
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Once the economy is dropping like a rock, there will not be a short cycle..It's easier to bring the market down then up..
Pause. jmo
 
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mr.h said:
Once the economy is dropping like a rock, there will not be a short cycle..It's easier to bring the market down then up..
Pause. jmo
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It isn’t about the market. It is about the economy.

The speed of the rebound is likely to be in direct correlation to the speed of the rate cuts. See March 2020.
 
Canedog said:
Vanguard or Fidelity money market funds are paying around 4.75% with liquidity. The interest rate fluctuates. 12 to 18 month treasuries pay the about the same but the principal balance will fluctuate depending on interest rate fluctuations. Principal balances on short term bonds don’t fluctuate as much as longer term bonds.

If you hold till maturity you get all your principal and interest.
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I’m using CDs and finding 5% or better on one month to one year.
 
CNBC…Tech surge-Nasdaq 100 up 20%. Best since 4th quarter since Q-2 2020.
Personal consumption 4.4 from 4.3
GNP -2.6 from 2.6
Jobless claims 196,000 from 191,000

USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q4)3.7% 03.7%3.7%

VIX @19
CPI tomorrow.
 
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90scane said:
It isn’t about the market. It is about the economy.

The speed of the rebound is likely to be in direct correlation to the speed of the rate cuts. See March 2020.
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Then speed of rate cuts could speed up inflation again…I was talking about the economy and the market.
 
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90scane said:
Imagine if they hadn't raised rates by 5%! We still have 5% inflation now so having 2-3% rates would likely mean 8-10% inflation, no?
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Yes, It seemed likely that supply lines were opening, but it would have taken a long time without the interest rate hikes, and now we are on a tipping point. Throw in the banks and we could have a big recession unless he takes the foot of pedal.
 
CPE:
12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%-0.980.4%0.5%
12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 4.6%-0.564.7%4.7%
12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%0.790.2%0.6%
12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 5%-0.875.3%5.3%
12:30USDPersonal Income (MoM)(Feb) 0.3%0.490.2%0.6%
12:30USDPersonal Spending(Feb) 0.2%-0.440.3%2%
Mostly down..
 
USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Mar) 62-0.4863.263.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(Mar) 2.9% --2.8%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index(Mar) 43.80.0843.443.6
 
CA08E692-1F43-4BB7-A66A-677A28F1D417.jpeg
 
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Individual investors, spooked by the banking storm, are losing their appetite for U.S. stocks.​

After reaching a monthly record in February, share purchases by individuals have slowed sharply, falling to levels not seen since November 2020, Vanda Research data show. The pullback leaves equity markets without a dependable leg of support as some investors become increasingly concerned about the possibility of a pronounced recession, rather than the "soft landing" scenario many had hoped the Fed could pull off in its efforts to tame inflation. In the coming days, investors will pore over the March jobs report for insights into how the labor market is faring.
 
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