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Stewart Mandel projects that we get in under one scenario only

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If BYU and Bama lose, they will move Bama to #10 and ND to #9. Not only will it keep both in, which is the goal, but it also keeps them from having 2 rematches. A&M is #7 and OU is #8.

Nobody wants to see A&M/ND and Bama/OU again
 
Canes Legacy said:
Here’s a hot take that most Miami fans will disagree with.

If the committee finally decides to flip Miami and ND, on the one week where they didn’t play after all the nonsense the committee has spewed, is a tremendous disservice to ND and the rankings process as a whole (although they clearly don’t care about that).

The story would be ND gets screwed.
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I can live with that.
 
You have to admit, after all the talk about Miami-Notre Dame these last few weeks it would be pretty funny if BYU won and we both get left out. At this point, I don’t see that happening but you never know. Honestly, if I could look through a crystal ball and see that they’re 100% going to put Notre Dame in over us, then I’m praying for a BYU win so the Domers get left out. If we don’t deserve to be in, neither do they.
 
edge said:
If Bama plays them tight, which they will, they won’t drop with a loss. Why? Because they beat them once so they won’t get penalized.
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Ive thought this too but with 3 losses how do they not drop 1 spot. Historically conf champ losers have dropped a spot and its easy for the committee to do because theyd still be in the field. Absolute must bama win, byu loss. If that happens i think the noise has gotten so loud that miami gets in
 
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DoctorKrazey said:
You have to admit, after all the talk about Miami-Notre Dame these last few weeks it would be pretty funny if BYU won and we both get left out. At this point, I don’t see that happening but you never know. Honestly, if I could look through a crystal ball and see that they’re 100% going to put Notre Dame in over us, then I’m praying for a BYU win so the Domers get left out. If we don’t deserve to be in, neither do they.
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Reminds me of last year when I was furious that a 3 loss Bama was ranked over us going championship weekend only for Clemson to beat SMU and we both missed it. Misery loves company
 
TXCANE4 said:
Vegas is speaking. Odds for Miami to make the playoffs went from +625 to +350 over the past day or so
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For the non gamblers out there, can you translate this ?

Cajuncane said:
Next week will be first games don’t count because teams just use it as an exhibition because it’s their first full contact in game situations…
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If you listen closely, they are trying to shift the narrative from h2h, like opponents to “eye test”. They’ve been pounding the “won 10 in a row” narrative for a couple weeks now.
 
AUcane said:
For the non gamblers out there, can you translate this ?
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A lot of money has been wagered on Miami to make the field over the last few days, making the payouts less favorable. Perception among the public is that Miami is moving closer to the field. ND is still more likely to make it based on betting lines, but their odds have gone down over the past week.

The problem is that nobody knows what the committee will actually do on Sunday. Recall that just this week Texas’ odds moved similarly just before the show and they’re still on the outside looking in. And 2 years ago FSU was still the heavy betting favorite to make the field until about an hour before the reveal.
 
WestGA'Cane said:
TT wins, 'Bama loses convincingly (out of it early, 2 score loss (min.). It would be loss 3, and FSU, in that scenario, would not be forgotten (??).
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They aren't dropping a SEC title team even if they lose by 40. Only way would be a major injury to Simpson and the backup looks awful. Even then, they probably still leave them in. ND would probably jump them if they lose big which wouldn't help us.
 
MiamiInvestor said:
Mandel had an article today in the athletic projecting the CFP in 4 possible outcomes of the SEC and Big 12 championships. One scenario gets us in:

BYU loss

Bama win

Despite many people’s thoughts, we can’t afford a Bama loss. If BYU loses and Bama loses, Bama falls to 10 and ND rises to 9. That protects them from a back to back ranking comparison with us.

If BYU wins obviously Miami and ND are both out.

www.nytimes.com

College Football Playoff scenarios: How to root for controversy and chaos on championship weekend

Championship weekend could deliver chaos. Here's how each scenario could change the field.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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I don't see Bama winning today. Hope I'm wrong.
 
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canes518 said:
A lot of money has been wagered on Miami to make the field over the last few days, making the payouts less favorable. Perception among the public is that Miami is moving closer to the field. ND is still more likely to make it based on betting lines, but their odds have gone down over the past week.

The problem is that nobody knows what the committee will actually do on Sunday. Recall that just this week Texas’ odds moved similarly just before the show and they’re still on the outside looking in. And 2 years ago FSU was still the heavy betting favorite to make the field until about an hour before the reveal.
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Yup. Facts.

15-20 minutes prior to 2023 selection, Bama became -150 to -250
 
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