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Stewart Mandel projects that we get in under one scenario only

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terdferguson said:
Correct. The only other scenario that we could maybe get in would be a catastrophic game for bama like them getting their doors blown off and simpson getting hurt
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Yup. Been saying it since 7:10 Tuesday night, and the odds overwhelmingly agree. Bama has ONE path to be left out, and it's an absolute ****kicking by UGA and possibly an injury to Simpson.

If they lose 37-10, they are in trouble. But there's a 0.1% chance they get their doors blown off. They already beat UGA once, at UGA. Spermy is 1-7 against Bama in his career. UGA is 1-10 in their last 11 games vs Alabama. UGA isn't beating them by 30. Bama is in.

(Since we need Bama to win, and they've had more success than anyone else, BY FAR, against Seprmy's UGA teams, expect an excruciatingly painful loss by Bama. 26-24 on a 54 yard field goal that's tipped at the line and tumbles over the crossbar type ****)
 
We should be ahead of Bama. They are getting away with getting smoked by FSU. The SEC created a circle jerk where beating teams like Mizzou and Tennessee and even LSU are looked at as some monumental task, when none of these teams have beaten any serious team. These teams are the same as SMU, UL , UVA and Pitt. But are looked at like they are UGA level. I really want us to get in because we are built for these games. More so than for playing teams we out talent. These are trenches battles.
 
supacane said:
We should be ahead of Bama. They are getting away with getting smoked by FSU. The SEC created a circle jerk where beating teams like Mizzou and Tennessee and even LSU are looked at as some monumental task, when none of these teams have beaten any serious team. These teams are the same as SMU, UL , UVA and Pitt. But are looked at like they are UGA level.
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I genuinely think we're better than Bama, but I disagree our resume should have us above them. Regardless though, it doesn't matter. That's a moot discussion, we're not gonna be ahead of Bama unless they get literally blown out of the building, and I still don't think that'd be enough. Focus on them beating UGA and BYU getting torched by Texas Tech. IMO if both those things happen, I really think we get in (I need my ******* head examined).
 
I seem to recall the committee saying some time back that a conference championship loss isn't taken into account. Have3 they said anything lately regarding that?
 
supacane said:
We should be ahead of Bama. They are getting away with getting smoked by FSU. The SEC created a circle jerk where beating teams like Mizzou and Tennessee and even LSU are looked at as some monumental task, when none of these teams have beaten any serious team. These teams are the same as SMU, UL , UVA and Pitt. But are looked at like they are UGA level. I really want us to get in because we are built for these games. More so than for playing teams we out talent. These are trenches battles.
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Bama lost to a 5 win team by 14 and Oklahoma lost by 17 to a 9 win team. And it's never discussed. Miami loses to two 8 win teams, one in OT, and all anyone says is they're "terrible losses".

This is the conversation we had last year with Alabama. You should absolutely not be able to lose to a sub .500 team, BY 14 POINTS, and still make the playoffs, especially when there's ambiguity about who should get in. Get the f*** out of here with losing to an 8 win team in OT is a bad loss.

Nobody is talking about it though. Nobody is saying Bama should be kicked out. You guys think Miami Notre Dame is the I injustice. Bama completely avoiding the FSU discussion is the real injustice.

And don't tell me the FSU game was an aberration, a fluke, first game jitters, blah, blah, blah. Because they ended the season against a 5 win team and were tied with 4:00 minutes left, going for it on 4th down. They ended the season like they started it.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yup. Been saying it since 7:10 Tuesday night, and the odds overwhelmingly agree. Bama has ONE path to be left out, and it's an absolute ****kicking by UGA and possibly an injury to Simpson.

If they lose 37-10, they are in trouble. But there's a 0.1% chance they get their doors blown off. They already beat UGA once, at UGA. Spermy is 1-7 against Bama in his career. UGA is 1-10 in their last 11 games vs Alabama. UGA isn't beating them by 30. Bama is in.

(Since we need Bama to win, and they've had more success than anyone else, BY FAR, against Seprmy's UGA teams, expect an excruciatingly painful loss by Bama. 26-24 on a 54 yard field goal that's tipped at the line and tumbles over the crossbar type ****)
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Yeah I'm not getting my hopes up. The stars have been aligned against us.
 
This committee is made up of a bunch of non-ball knowers that don't know what they are looking at and forgot why we play the games if they think Notre Dame is a better more worthy playoff team by any metric than Miami.

I bet CARLA WILLIAMS thinks Notre Dame is better than Miami.
 
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YankeesCane said:
BYU should have no affect on Miami and Notre Dame

Miami beat Notre Dame, Miami shouldnt need help to be ranked ahead of Notre Dame

Its absurd
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The idea that all of these things need to happen to force the committee to put Notre Dame and Miami side-by-side only for all of those things to happen and the committee STILL decides to rate Notre Dame ahead of Miami because they think Notre Dame is better despite all facts and evidence saying otherwise is buffoonery. But this is where we are at these days.

Don't lose to SMU and Louisville, I guess.
 
JD08 said:
I seem to recall the committee saying some time back that a conference championship loss isn't taken into account. Have3 they said anything lately regarding that?
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They haven’t said it won’t or that it would. They just gave the vague *** answer of idle teams can be reranked. I think it’s relative to how they perform.

Like if BYU was 10 and playing some unranked team and lost, they should be dropped. Same if it was us, an SEC or Big Ten team but those last two scenarios seems almost impossible to happen. So if they set the precedent that it can’t hurt you. No one will play hard in those games.

So I think they’ll never take a firm stance and just evaluate each title game as it happens. That would at least make the most sense to me. I’m just assuming that’s their thoughts independent of our situation of trying to get an at large this season.
 
committee will continue to manipulate the rankings to hand pick the final teams, regardless of what happens on the field. they've been doing it for weeks and really showed they don't care when they moved bama up for barely beating a terrible auburn team to keep them safe.

now if bama loses, they can move them to 10, keep them in the field, and have a buffer between us and ND. nowhere does it say that we have to be within 1 spot of ND to actually be compared and obviously within 2 teams means were pretty close, but this is their made up argument.

we can have everybody in the media screaming for us to make it in over ND but they will still make up reasons to justify it and use their bs "not back to back so not directly comparable" claim
 
Canes Legacy said:
Be prepared for them to not move BYU regardless of losing, especially if Bama wins.
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I think they’ll drop BYU. Does that help us? Idk. But I absolutely think they’d drop BYU and twist the knife in us. Like if BYU loses by say three scores. They rank them 12. Stop releasing the rankings and cut to commercial and then come back and drop 10 & 11.
 
aelmiami said:
I think they’ll drop BYU. Does that help us? Idk. But I absolutely think they’d drop BYU and twist the knife in us. Like if BYU loses by say three scores. They rank them 12. Stop releasing the rankings and cut to commercial and then come back and drop 10 & 11.
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The Miami ND debate is the only drama with the rankings, they’re going to milk it. They’ve already decided who they want in, it’s just a matter of coming up with whatever validation they can to justify it.

99% IMO nothing changes for us.
 
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canes518 said:
committee will continue to manipulate the rankings to hand pick the final teams, regardless of what happens on the field. they've been doing it for weeks and really showed they don't care when they moved bama up for barely beating a terrible auburn team to keep them safe.

now if bama loses, they can move them to 10, keep them in the field, and have a buffer between us and ND. nowhere does it say that we have to be within 1 spot of ND to actually be compared and obviously within 2 teams means were pretty close, but this is their made up argument.

we can have everybody in the media screaming for us to make it in over ND but they will still make up reasons to justify it and use their bs "not back to back so not directly comparable" claim
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That’s entirely plausible. But if UGA wins by like 3, the committee and their infinite wisdom, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if they kept them at 9. The long term thinking is if Bama wins the 7/10 matchup if they slot to 10, who would they play the next game? UGA. It wouldn’t shock me at all if they kept Bama at 9. Ran the OU game back and then set up Bama vs OSU/IU. And avoid Bama vs UGA part 3.

This has no bearing on who’s #10. I just don’t see them setting up that rematch again so early in the bracket.
 
Canes Legacy said:
The Miami ND debate is the only drama with the rankings, they’re going to milk it. They’ve already decided who they want in, it’s just a matter of coming up with whatever validation they can to justify it.

99% IMO nothing changes for us.
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There’s a small part of me that does think we’d move past ND. The rational, non homer fan in me keeps going back to the H2H.

It’s the battered and bruised Miami fan in me that is convinced we’ll get screwed. I was a kid in 2000, so that didn’t really register as much as this would. But it’s happened once before to us. So I won’t be shocked when it happens again at 1230 Sunday.
 
aelmiami said:
They haven’t said it won’t or that it would. They just gave the vague *** answer of idle teams can be reranked. I think it’s relative to how they perform.

Like if BYU was 10 and playing some unranked team and lost, they should be dropped. Same if it was us, an SEC or Big Ten team but those last two scenarios seems almost impossible to happen. So if they set the precedent that it can’t hurt you. No one will play hard in those games.

So I think they’ll never take a firm stance and just evaluate each title game as it happens. That would at least make the most sense to me. I’m just assuming that’s their thoughts independent of our situation of trying to get an at large this season.
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Obviously this year is completely different and it might have been specific to a team last year. They make things up as they go along, so who knows.
 
Canes Legacy said:
The Miami ND debate is the only drama with the rankings, they’re going to milk it. They’ve already decided who they want in, it’s just a matter of coming up with whatever validation they can to justify it.

99% IMO nothing changes for us.
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And it’s the 1% that’s killing us all. This should have ended last week.
 
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