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Stewart Mandel projects that we get in under one scenario only

MiamiInvestor

MiamiInvestor

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Mandel had an article today in the athletic projecting the CFP in 4 possible outcomes of the SEC and Big 12 championships. One scenario gets us in:

BYU loss

Bama win

Despite many people’s thoughts, we can’t afford a Bama loss. If BYU loses and Bama loses, Bama falls to 10 and ND rises to 9. That protects them from a back to back ranking comparison with us.

If BYU wins obviously Miami and ND are both out.

www.nytimes.com

College Football Playoff scenarios: How to root for controversy and chaos on championship weekend

Championship weekend could deliver chaos. Here's how each scenario could change the field.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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in theory Stewart is right with how the committee has made up this invisible barrier between them

But with it being the FINAL ranking, and ND still “in” and us still “out” I really don’t know if the committee will pretend to even play that game
 
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edge said:
If Bama plays them tight, which they will, they won’t drop with a loss. Why? Because they beat them once so they won’t get penalized.
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They could drop them still for 2 reasons.
1. To avoid rematches. If the rankings stay chalk, you get 2 rematches for 7-10.
7 A&M v 10 ND
8 OU vs 9 Bama

2. To keep separation between us and ND.
 
By far our best chance is BYU loss/Bama win. This isn’t even remotely close to a debate.

That’s not the only possible path, nor is that one even a lock. But it’s absolutely our best chance.

Best case: Bama win/Texas Tech win
Worst case: Bama win/Texas Tech loss

We have a very outside shot if Bama loses and Texas Tech wins, but it all depends where the committee moves (drops) Bama

The first game is noon Saturday. If Texas Tech wins, all eyes on Atlanta. If BYU wins, I guess acknowledge your family/drink heavily. It’s ovah.
 
The whole reason the committee moved up Bama(even though they struggled against Auburn) was to protect ND. Bama wins and they are in but if Bama loses they will switch ND to 9, leave Bama at 10 and assuming BYU loses Miami would be at 11 but 2 spots behind ND. So yes, only way is for BYU to lose and Bama wins keeping ND at 10, Miami at 11. CFP will still leave ND cause "how can we drop ND when we had them ahead all this time".

Texas Tech loss kills any hopes. They wouldnt drop TT below 10
 
y’all are on a treadmill with a carrot dangling in front of your face

They’ll just move the goalposts of the “criteria” again to fit what they want

When you see their players on the network broadcasting the event and has no affiliation to ND (like Miami and the ACC do), there’s an agenda that doesn’t involve you.
 
We have no advocate up there to ask these questions and hold these pieces of **** to the fire. ***** grim.

Our conference sucks.
Our conference commish is a cuck.
Refs hate us.
Media hates us.
Committee applies the "eye ball" test to us, everyone else gets biased treatment.
Orange Bowl Curse.

Only thing I can be excited about are the past two recruiting classes the men we got in our cupboards, but when something as seemingly clear, cut and dry as head-to-head--man does it suck the interest right out of the sport. Like watching a severe injustice being played out.
 
pyhooya said:
The whole reason the committee moved up Bama(even though they struggled against Auburn) was to protect ND. Bama wins and they are in but if Bama loses they will switch ND to 9, leave Bama at 10 and assuming BYU loses Miami would be at 11 but 2 spots behind ND. So yes, only way is for BYU to lose and Bama wins keeping ND at 10, Miami at 11. CFP will still leave ND cause "how can we drop ND when we had them ahead all this time".

Texas Tech loss kills any hopes. They wouldnt drop TT below 10
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They moved up Bama to protect Bama not ND. Listen to their reasoning for moving them up. It was clear they want to make sure Bama gets in and has a buffer just in case they lose badly.

If Bama loses a close game, the argument is there for them to remain since they previously beat Georgia.

We should be thrilled and ND should be terrified because the committee is putting them in striking distance. It would be hard for them to justify Miami being the only team that isn’t ranked ahead of the team it beat H2H.

ND’s only path assuming the committee isn’t trolling us is a BYU loss and Alabama gets destroyed and Simpson is hurt the first quarter with a season ending injury and Alabama looks like FSU versus Georgia and the committee is forced to kick Bama out of the playoffs.

In that scenario we both get in.

If the BYU loss and Bama win scenario happens but they keep ND at 10 and keep Miami out then there will be no doubt the committee ****ed us over intentionally and we will be the laughingstock for millions of people. It would be worse than fsu especially if Mario allows the cameras.

The committee would have purposely mislead Miami just to embarrass them on TV. This is where I think the politicking may have helped.

Political and sports figures have weighed in on our behalf.

No one will say credibly that ND got cheated by being picked over by a team they lost to. I could see the complaints being then you should’ve moved us behind Miami weeks ago.

The committee was banking on us dropping another one so they can sneak another $EC
 
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MiamiInvestor said:
Agree but the committee won’t do it unless it’s back to back most likely. They want ND in.
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Disagree. We don't need to be back to back just close for the head to head to go into effect. With their rankings on Tuesday the committee is clearly protecting Alabama and purposely putting Notre Dame on the chopping block. I think Alabama is in regardless but I don't think their winning or losing makes or breaks us ultimately even if our best shot is indeed an Alabama win plus a BYU loss. BYU losing is crucial. Then it's between Miami and Notre Dame and we will take that spot.
 
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I honestly can’t believe so many people are still holding out hope. We are cooked. If we were ever going to be in front of Notre dame it would have happened. I have no reason to think this committee has greater aversion to leaving out the **** ant ACC than it does ND or bama.
 
Canesq said:
If the BYU loss and Bama win scenario happens but they keep ND at 10 and keep Miami out then there will be no doubt the committee ****ed us over intentionally and we will be the laughingstock for millions of people. It would be worse than fsu especially if Mario allows the cameras.
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The university of Arkansas athletic offices get firebombed in this scenario
 
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