State of the rivalry: MIAMI vs fsu

CANE

The Champ
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Nov 10, 2011
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1. Recent performance

Most of the year we have dedicated State of the Rivalry to games that factored into the BCS title chase or at least a conference championship showdown. But this week we're headed down to the ACC and the matchup that not so long ago dominated the college football landscape.

Miami and Florida State first met in 1951 and have kept the series alive nearly every season since. But it didn't become the game until the late 1980s, when both longtime dormant programs had finally emerged together as members of the nation's elite.

Since 1991 we've had Wide Right I-IV, Wide Left, the Miami Muff, and the thrill-a-minute 2009 shootout that stands as the second-highest-rated regular-season game in ESPN history.

Even as the programs have sagged in recent years -- FSU's last BCS bowl was in '06, Miami's in '04 -- the series has never been more competitive. During its most relevant years it was very streaky. Miami won 11 of 14 from 1980-94. FSU answered with five straight, followed by six straight by The U.

However, since 2004, when they met twice, in the Orange Bowl and during the '04 regular season, the series is tied at 4-4 and six of those games were decided by four points or less. The underdog has won the last six meetings and the home team has lost five straight.

But if you shrink the sample size to the last six years, it reveals an edge for FSU. Four of the last six have been won by the Seminoles, including last year's 45-17 beatdown, the most lopsided win in the series since 1997 and second-worst since 1976.

Advantage: FSU

2. Recruiting

Florida recruiting battle

ESPNU Class Rankings last 5 years (ESPN 150 signees):
Year Miami FSU
2012 7 (4) 2 (10)
2011 NR (3) 1 (12)
2010 13 (3) 6 (8)
2009 7 (6) 8 (5)
2008 1 (12) 12 (5)

A full two months before national signing day, these programs are already locked and loaded, particularly Florida State, which already has a commitment from the nation's No. 1 high school player, Texas defensive end Mario Edwards. (It's not 100 percent certain he'll remain committed to the Noles, but there aren't any sure things in recruiting.)

Meanwhile, the Canes have managed to tunnel around the concern of future NCAA sanctions, landing an early top-10 class of their own. It's not a surprise that the majority of the class hails from South Florida, but like the Noles, Miami has landed a big Texas prospect, quarterback Preston Dewey of Austin's St. Andrew's.

When Randy Shannon took over at his alma mater in 2007, he pledged to renew Miami's sagging dominance in getting its pick of the recruiting litter in Florida's lower half. He did that, reeling in The U's recruiting efforts and restoring hometown pride. But as Shannon's job security waned, so did his grip on the region. It all bottomed out when Shannon was fired late last season. That just so happened to coincide with Urban Meyer's retirement from Florida.

Enter the Seminoles' Jimbo Fisher, who himself had been on the road as Bobby Bowden's last great assistant, at least until the NCAA said head-coaches-in-waiting couldn't recruit like assistants. With uncertainty looming over Coral Gables and Gainesville, FSU cleaned up. All but one of its 2011 high school signees came from Florida. This year, Fisher is dipping into his old Alabama ties to snag a few from under old boss Nick Saban's nose (including No. 1 QB prospect Jameis Winston).

Both schools will always do well because of where they are located. But right now it's obvious who has the head start.

Advantage: FSU

3. Coaching stability


Overall record at school:
Al Golden: 5-4 (first season)
Jimbo Fisher: 16-7 (second season)

Career record vs. opponent:
Golden: 0-0
Fisher: 1-0

Fisher's second year at the helm has not met expectations, as the preseason top-10 pick and ACC favorites are already out of conference title contention. However, he's not going anywhere anytime soon, thanks to an phenomenal early recruiting effort (see previous section) and the success of his 10-4, conference runner-up rookie campaign. And everyone at Florida State is still in a state of relief that the awkward post-Bobby Bowden transition is behind them.

The situation in Coral Gables is a bit more tenuous. Golden arrived last December and did tremendous work in his first months to re-energize a fan base that had become indifferent to his predecessor, a malaise that started with the midseason blowout loss to Florida State.

But there was no way for Golden to know what he was walking into, a minefield that started blowing up around him when Yahoo! Sports broke the story of rampant rules violations by longtime "friend of the program" and Ponzi schemer Nevin Shapiro. Just last week CBSSports.com reported that Golden's agent said Miami had approached Golden about restructuring his contract as the NCAA investigation continued, which Golden denied.

Now the situation at Penn State is sending shock waves all the way to South Florida. Golden, a former Penn State tight end and assistant coach, has always been mentioned as a possible predecessor to Joe Paterno, so much so that some thought he might not take the Miami job. On Wednesday, within minutes of Paterno's initial retirement announcement, the first replacement short lists started appearing and Golden was on every one.

Advantage: FSU

4. Player development

There are 29 former Seminoles on NFL rosters. Impressive, right?

But there are 46 Canes currently in the pros. Forty-six! That's easily the most of any FBS school. "Don't even act surprised about that," an NFL scout said to me when I presented him with that number. "Even during their lean years, The U is still The U."

He's right. Just take a look at last season. Miami posted a record of 7-6, finished three games back in the ACC's Coastal Division and still had eight players drafted. The Canes haven't had a first-rounder taken over the last three years, but since 2001 they've produced 25 first-round picks, including a stunning 10 in 2003-04.

The Noles hold their own when it comes to the NFL draft. This past April, QB Christian Ponder became FSU's ninth first-rounder since 2005, a number that includes six taken in 2005-06. But in the end, Miami's sheer numbers are too much to ignore. And so are testimonials like this:

"They both are loaded with raw talent," added the scout. "At the top level of just pure football players, you could throw a blanket over them. And you can throw Florida in there, too. But all you need to know about the confidence that people in the league have about Miami is, look past the draft picks and look at the free-agent signings. Everybody knows about Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But there a lot of Miami guys in the league I bet you never heard of in college. But there they are. I've been in meetings where my bosses look at a bunch of names of free agents and they say, 'just sign the guy from Miami.'"

Advantage: Miami

5. Fan and institutional support

Every week in State of the Rivalry, we refer to the list of 22 public athletic departments that made more money than they spent in 2010-11. Neither one of these schools is on that list.

Compared to most of the state-supported schools we have looked into this season, FSU's annual athletic budget is downright paltry. FSU received a $7 million increase from the state government for 2010-11, which bumped it to $55 million. That sounds like a lot until you compare it to other schools we've looked at this year, such as last week's schools LSU ($111 million) and Alabama ($130 million). In Gainesville, the Gators operate on a budget of a shade over $96 million. FSU rarely clears any cash at year's end, relying on booster contributions to balance its budget.

That information makes the facilities situation in Tallahassee even more impressive. Doak Campbell Stadium, once surprisingly generic, has been expanded to seat more than 82,000 and in recent seasons has added sound and video systems. A new practice facility is under construction, scheduled for completion in June 2012.

Miami isn't a part of the 22 money-makers list because it is a private university, but its athletics budget is estimated at $60 million. Unlike state schools, it must generate that money internally, a challenge for a relatively small university (enrollment 15,000) with an equally small alumni base (150,000) located in a city where there are a dizzying number of entertainment options.

Those limitations continue to create one of the worst stadium situations in all of college football. Sun Life Stadium (you may remember it as Joe Robbie, Pro Player, or Land Shark) is located 30 minutes north of Coral Gables and, as it is home to the Miami Dolphins, the Canes always feel like guests there. As dilapidated as the old Orange Bowl had become, it was still a home the Canes could call their own -- and a lot closer to campus. But after the painstaking process it took for The U to get the $50 million Ryder Center built, an on-campus stadium is a distant dream at best.

Advantage: FSU

6. Intangible: Dark skies ahead


The Miami booster story is already one of the most crippling reports ever to surface about a college football program. Golden has handled it all very well, particularly the early-season player NCAA suspensions. But the real hammers have yet to fall, both the expected self-imposed sanctions as well as whatever punishment might come from Indianapolis. A program can say that waiting on all of that doesn't affect what it does, but history and common sense say otherwise.

Advantage: FSU

The winner: Florida State Seminoles

It feels as though this series might be on the verge of returning to one of those long winning streaks. After down years and a painful transition of power, Florida State is finally reaching a plane of stability. Not too long ago it felt like Miami was making all the right moves to get there itself. But there is nothing stable about stating into a muddy crystal ball.
 

Shogungts

Junior
Joined
Nov 3, 2011
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1,499
""They both are loaded with raw talent," added the scout. "At the top level of just pure football players, you could throw a blanket over them. And you can throw Florida in there, too. But all you need to know about the confidence that people in the league have about Miami is, look past the draft picks and look at the free-agent signings. Everybody knows about Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But there a lot of Miami guys in the league I bet you never heard of in college. But there they are. I've been in meetings where my bosses look at a bunch of names of free agents and they say, 'just sign the guy from Miami.'""

This truly needs to be shown to every recruit.
 

umhurricane2511

Always Faithful
Joined
Nov 4, 2011
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8,003
However, since 2004, when they met twice, in the Orange Bowl and during the '04 regular season, the series is tied at 4-4 and six of those games were decided by four points or less. The underdog has won the last six meetings and the home team has lost five straight.


It was 2003 when we played twice. The first was the "soak at doak" with ST running the show. The second time was the Orange Bowl (2004 bowl season, but 2003 regular season).
 

DiegoCane

All-ACC
Joined
Nov 2, 2011
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""They both are loaded with raw talent," added the scout. "At the top level of just pure football players, you could throw a blanket over them. And you can throw Florida in there, too. But all you need to know about the confidence that people in the league have about Miami is, look past the draft picks and look at the free-agent signings. Everybody knows about Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But there a lot of Miami guys in the league I bet you never heard of in college. But there they are. I've been in meetings where my bosses look at a bunch of names of free agents and they say, 'just sign the guy from Miami.'""

This truly needs to be shown to every recruit.
yeah that is an awesome quote.

Although Golden is trying to get away from the thought that just because you are at Miami you will go to the NFL.
 

NoleMole

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Nov 5, 2011
Messages
125
4. Player development

There are 29 former Seminoles on NFL rosters. Impressive, right?

But there are 46 Canes currently in the pros. Forty-six! That's easily the most of any FBS school. "Don't even act surprised about that," an NFL scout said to me when I presented him with that number. "Even during their lean years, The U is still The U."

He's right. Just take a look at last season. Miami posted a record of 7-6, finished three games back in the ACC's Coastal Division and still had eight players drafted. The Canes haven't had a first-rounder taken over the last three years, but since 2001 they've produced 25 first-round picks, including a stunning 10 in 2003-04.

The Noles hold their own when it comes to the NFL draft. This past April, QB Christian Ponder became FSU's ninth first-rounder since 2005, a number that includes six taken in 2005-06. But in the end, Miami's sheer numbers are too much to ignore. And so are testimonials like this:

"They both are loaded with raw talent," added the scout. "At the top level of just pure football players, you could throw a blanket over them. And you can throw Florida in there, too. But all you need to know about the confidence that people in the league have about Miami is, look past the draft picks and look at the free-agent signings. Everybody knows about Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But there a lot of Miami guys in the league I bet you never heard of in college. But there they are. I've been in meetings where my bosses look at a bunch of names of free agents and they say, 'just sign the guy from Miami.'"

Advantage: Miami
To be fair, Player development is not the same thing as sheer number of players in the NFL. Cases with guys like Sam shields and Jimmy Graham either playing out of position or very briefly for UM, but going on to be surprisingly successful in the NFL point more towards there being undeveloped talent sitting on the roster. Shields was a 5 star recruit if I remember correctly, and he underperformed at UM by anyone's measure. Guys like Leonard Hankerson, Sean Taylor, or Christian Ponder point more towards player development, because they came in as three star recruits and were made into NFL players drafted early on. What I'm getting at is that just b/c you've got more in the NFL talent coming out doesn't necessarily mean you're developing players better. I say that because I think one of your biggest problems under Randy was player development. Hopefully Golden is better about that, because it sucks seeing talented kids go to waste, no matter what team they're on.
 

CaneDaddy

All-American
Joined
Nov 2, 2011
Messages
11,140
4. Player development

There are 29 former Seminoles on NFL rosters. Impressive, right?

But there are 46 Canes currently in the pros. Forty-six! That's easily the most of any FBS school. "Don't even act surprised about that," an NFL scout said to me when I presented him with that number. "Even during their lean years, The U is still The U."

He's right. Just take a look at last season. Miami posted a record of 7-6, finished three games back in the ACC's Coastal Division and still had eight players drafted. The Canes haven't had a first-rounder taken over the last three years, but since 2001 they've produced 25 first-round picks, including a stunning 10 in 2003-04.

The Noles hold their own when it comes to the NFL draft. This past April, QB Christian Ponder became FSU's ninth first-rounder since 2005, a number that includes six taken in 2005-06. But in the end, Miami's sheer numbers are too much to ignore. And so are testimonials like this:

"They both are loaded with raw talent," added the scout. "At the top level of just pure football players, you could throw a blanket over them. And you can throw Florida in there, too. But all you need to know about the confidence that people in the league have about Miami is, look past the draft picks and look at the free-agent signings. Everybody knows about Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But there a lot of Miami guys in the league I bet you never heard of in college. But there they are. I've been in meetings where my bosses look at a bunch of names of free agents and they say, 'just sign the guy from Miami.'"

Advantage: Miami
To be fair, Player development is not the same thing as sheer number of players in the NFL. Cases with guys like Sam shields and Jimmy Graham either playing out of position or very briefly for UM, but going on to be surprisingly successful in the NFL point more towards there being undeveloped talent sitting on the roster. Shields was a 5 star recruit if I remember correctly, and he underperformed at UM by anyone's measure. Guys like Leonard Hankerson, Sean Taylor, or Christian Ponder point more towards player development, because they came in as three star recruits and were made into NFL players drafted early on. What I'm getting at is that just b/c you've got more in the NFL talent coming out doesn't necessarily mean you're developing players better. I say that because I think one of your biggest problems under Randy was player development. Hopefully Golden is better about that, because it sucks seeing talented kids go to waste, no matter what team they're on.
But FSU and Miami are going after the same kids. However, the ones that attend Miami tend to have better NFL careers. I think that is what the article is referring to. Regardless of how shitty Miami kids play in college, most are more prepared for the NFL than most college teams.
 

NoleMole

Redshirt Freshman
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Nov 5, 2011
Messages
125
No doubt Miami has kids with better NFL careers than most, and many kids are prepared for the NFL coming out of there. I'm just saying that that's as of recently probably happened more because of good recruiting instead of good development. Same thing goes for FSU in the past ten years.
 

Shogungts

Junior
Joined
Nov 3, 2011
Messages
1,499
No doubt Miami has kids with better NFL careers than most, and many kids are prepared for the NFL coming out of there. I'm just saying that that's as of recently probably happened more because of good recruiting instead of good development. Same thing goes for FSU in the past ten years.
A valid point, but the last quote remains regardless; people in the NFL making player personnel decisions have a bias to Miami players. Why they have the bias and whether it is deserved is moot. It's like the people that will go out and buy a specific brand b/c they have used it before and like it; there may be a better product from another manufacturer that is a better value, but they go with the one know and like. Like any brand, however, that only lasts so long if the product slips...
 

NoleMole

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
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Messages
125
And they should be biased. For as much flack as the ACC gets, they produce an overwhelming amount of NFL talent, and Miami has been the one leading the way. The kids that play in our conference are way more athletic in the aggregate than any other conference except the SEC.
 
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