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SPREAD IS 12.5

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hydro66 said:
Virginia always spooked me. I just want to win it big and grind it down their throats. Virginia represented and went on to play CLEMSON in the champs game
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Some teams just have a knack for getting up for us. This is one of them. Duke and UNC as well..
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
They are currently 42nd out of 77 in defensive YPP allowed.

They played Duke in Week 1, and won 38-20.

Since then, they gave up 41 to Clemson (no shame in that), 38 to NC State and 40 last week to Wake.

Wake really rolled them up....they scored 4 TDs and kicked 4 FGs. 8 scoring drives in the game. Hartman completed 16/27 for 309, and both their backs had plenty of success. UVA really didn't stop them much all night, Wake scored TDs on their first 2 drives and basically did what they wanted the entire game. It was Wake's highest YPP in a P5 game (7.00) since early 2018.
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Their game vs. Duke was aided by 6 or 7 TOs, IIRC.
 
TimeB0mb said:
Is there anyone on the UVA squad who isn't playing? I just want to get a preview of the arguments that we'll hear after the game, when posters will say, "If player X had been in the lineup for UVA, Miami would have lost by 2 TDs."
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Confirmed OUT:

Tiki Barber
Anthony Poindexter
Jamie Sharper
 
Hopefully they do not have another Kurt Benkert QB who starts the game 16 for 16 on completions.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Duke had 7 turnovers, yes.

This is a **** of a drive log, starting at the end of the 2nd quarter:

INT
HALF
FG
INT
TD (Drive started at the UVA 10)
INT
INT
INT
FUMBLE
DOWNS

Good lord.
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It's shocking AF that the margin was only 38-20. It legit should have been 68-20.
 
I might take a position writing for a CFB gambling website. They asked me to submit a sample, so I handicapped this game. Here is my write-up (I did an even bigger deep dive, but didn't want to get overly complex in the write-up... we should name our score).

Back the Canes against an injured UVA squad

The Virginia Cavaliers travel south to take on the Miami Hurricanes (-12.5; 58.5) in a Saturday night 8:00 kickoff. This is a great spot to buy low on a Canes team that I think is undervalued after two lackluster offensive performances against Clemson and Pitt, and this recency bias led to the odds makers hanging a bad line.

Virginia

The Cavs are coming off a 40-23 loss to Wake Forest. Starting QB Brennan Armstrong missed the game after suffering a hit the prior week that landed him in concussion protocol. Armstrong hasn’t practiced since, and it looks like he won’t be going.

The Cavs played 3 QBs in his place last week. Coming into the season, Miss St. transfer Keytaon Thompson, the 176th overall player in the country coming out of high school, was slated to be the 2nd sting QB, even though he only arrived on campus on August 20. However, due to a lack of talent at WR, Thompson and 4th string QB Iraken Armstead were cross-trained at WR (and even the FG block team for Thompson). This led to Thompson injuring his shoulder during camp. Coach Bronco Mendenhall said he still isn’t healthy enough to throw the ball, and has only 1 pass attempt this season. He does play plenty of snaps, and can hurt you with his feet, racking up 71 yards on 10 carries vs. Wake.

This leaves 3rd string Lindell Stone as the primary QB. Stone is the only QB Mendenhall will let throw it - problem is, he isn’t good. The past 2 weeks, Stone went 24/42 for 193 with 0 TDs and 2 picks for a 34.8 QBR vs. Wake, and 30/54 for 240 yards with 0 TDs and 2 picks for a 27.6 QBR vs. NC State. The Cavs plan to play all 3 QBs, like they did vs. Wake (many times with 2 or all 3 on the field).

UVA becomes predictable and easy to figure out as soon as you see who lines up under center. Stone is throwing, and Thomson and Armstead are running. This isn’t going to work against a Canes defense that ranks 16th overall in S&P. Miami ranks 22nd in line yards and 12th in stuff rate, so the Cavs should have a hard time moving the ball on the ground. This will force Stone to throw it against the 24th ranked pass efficiency defense, while facing a DL led by Quince Roche that can really get after you. I just don’t see where the points are coming from for UVA.



Miami

On the other side of the ball, this is a perfect buy-low opportunity on the Miami offense. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, the Miami offense was humming, averaging 43.3 ppg. QB D’Eriq King looked electric, leading the Canes to a No. 7 ranking heading to Death Valley to face Clemson.



Then Clemson stuffed Miami in a locker on national TV. Clemson exposed King’s weakness by stacking the box, bringing pressure, and making King throw it outside the hashes to a lackluster WR group, who couldn’t take advantage of the 1-on-1 coverage. Last week, Pitt used the same blueprint, and again King struggled with accuracy and the WRs failed to help him out.

But this recency bias is creating a deflated line. Clemson and Pitt are both top 5 defenses with dominant DLs that can cause pressure, and secondaries that were good enough to hold their own in single coverage. This UVA secondary is just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Miami pass attack.

Over the final 8 games of last season , an injury depleted UVA was 129th in the nation, allowing 9.4 yards/attempt. This year, they are allowing 15.4 yards per completion, good for 4th worst in the nation. And that was BEFORE UVA lost 3/4 of its starting secondary last week. Pre-season 3rd team all-ACC safety Joey Blunt played only 9 snaps before leaving the game injured. S Brennan Nelson (the 2017 ACC defensive ROY) and CB Devonte Cross also left injured. Their status for this weekend was questionable as of Wednesday night.

This doesn’t bode well against a Canes offense that lacks efficiency but is explosive. Manny Diaz completely opened up the WR competition this week, listing all 9 WRs as possible starters. Miami’s younger, talented WRs should have the opportunity to break some long gains in OC Rhett Lashlee’s offense, which has done an excellent job of scheming points this season. If Miami can get its run game back on track and hit a few shots over the top against this banged-up, talent deficient secondary, this one can really get out of hand.

It is also worth noting that Miami has the No. 1 special teams in the nation per S&P, an area where UVA has struggled. Kicker Jose Borregales might be the best in the nation, and punter Lou Hedley is averaging 47.6 yards/punt, good for 5th in the nation.

The Wager

The odds makers got this number wrong. The Canes are just more talented at every position group and will be motivated for a night game at Hard Rock. The Cavs are banged up bad in key positions that play right into what Miami wants to do. Miami should put this one out of reach early.* I expect this line to close over 14, so get on it now. Keep an eye on UVA’s injuries, and if they stay banged up in the secondary, I would play this one up to -16.5. This one has the potential to get ugly.



Miami -12.5 (2 units).



*I almost suggested a 1q bet as well, based on the following:

UVA’s has been outscored in the 1st quarter this season as follows: 10-0, 10-0, 14-0 & 14-3. Meanwhile, UM in the first quarter has outscored its opponents - outside Clemson - by a combined score of 42-13. UVA plays musical chairs trying to find a QB, the Canes should come out hot, looking to put this one out of reach early and rest its starters in the 2nd half, as they head into a bye week.
 
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scrantoncane said:
I might take a position writing for a CFB gambling website. They asked me to submit a sample, so I handicapped this game. Here is my write-up (I did an even bigger deep dive, but didn't want to get overly complex in the write-up... we should name our score).

Back the Canes against an injured UVA squad

The Virginia Cavaliers travel south to take on the Miami Hurricanes (-12.5; 58.5) in a Saturday night 8:00 kickoff. This is a great spot to buy low on a Canes team that I think is undervalued after two lackluster offensive performances against Clemson and Pitt, and this recency bias led to the odds makers hanging a bad line.

Virginia

The Cavs are coming off a 40-23 loss to Wake Forest. Starting QB Brennan Armstrong missed the game after suffering a hit the prior week that landed him in concussion protocol. Armstrong hasn’t practiced since, and it looks like he won’t be going.

The Cavs played 3 QBs in his place last week. Coming into the season, Miss St. transfer Keytaon Thompson, the 176th overall player in the country coming out of high school, was slated to be the 2nd sting QB, even though he only arrived on campus on August 20. However, due to a lack of talent at WR, Thompson and 4th string QB Iraken Armstead were cross-trained at WR (and even the FG block team for Thompson). This led to Thompson injuring his shoulder during camp. Coach Bronco Mendenhall said he still isn’t healthy enough to throw the ball, and has only 1 pass attempt this season. He does play plenty of snaps, and can hurt you with his feet, racking up 71 yards on 10 carries vs. Wake.

This leaves 3rd string Lindell Stone as the primary QB. Stone is the only QB Mendenhall will let throw it - problem is, he isn’t good. The past 2 weeks, Stone went 24/42 for 193 with 0 TDs and 2 picks for a 34.8 QBR vs. Wake, and 30/54 for 240 yards with 0 TDs and 2 picks for a 27.6 QBR vs. NC State. The Cavs plan to play all 3 QBs, like they did vs. Wake (many times with 2 or all 3 on the field).

UVA becomes predictable and easy to figure out as soon as you see who lines up under center. Stone is throwing, and Thomson and Armstead are running. This isn’t going to work against a Canes defense that ranks 16th overall in S&P. Miami ranks 22nd in line yards and 12th in stuff rate, so the Cavs should have a hard time moving the ball on the ground. This will force Stone to throw it against the 24th ranked pass efficiency defense, while facing a DL led by Quince Roche that can really get after you. I just don’t see where the points are coming from for UVA.



Miami

On the other side of the ball, this is a perfect buy-low opportunity on the Miami offense. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, the Miami offense was humming, averaging 43.3 ppg. QB D’Eriq King looked electric, leading the Canes to a No. 7 ranking heading to Death Valley to face Clemson.



Then Clemson stuffed Miami in a locker on national TV. Clemson exposed King’s weakness by stacking the box, bringing pressure, and making King throw it outside the hashes to a lackluster WR group, who couldn’t take advantage of the 1-on-1 coverage. Last week, Pitt used the same blueprint, and again King struggled with accuracy and the WRs failed to help him out.

But this recency bias is creating a deflated line. Clemson and Pitt are both top 5 defenses with dominant DLs that can cause pressure, and secondaries that were good enough to hold their own in single coverage. This Wake secondary is just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Miami pass attack.

Over the final 8 games of last season , an injury depleted UVA was 129th in the nation, allowing 9.4 yards/attempt. This year, they are allowing 15.4 yards per completion, good for 4th worst in the nation. And that was BEFORE UVA lost 3/4 of its starting secondary last week. Pre-season 3rd team all-ACC safety Joey Blunt played only 9 snaps before leaving the game injured. S Brennan Nelson (the 2017 ACC defensive ROY) and CB Devonte Cross also left injured. Their status for this weekend was questionable as of Wednesday night.

This doesn’t bode well against a Canes offense that lacks efficiency but is explosive. Manny Diaz completely opened up the WR competition this week, listing all 9 WRs as possible starters. Miami’s younger, talented WRs should have the opportunity to break some long gains in OC Rhett Lashlee’s offense, which has done an excellent job of scheming points this season. If Miami can get its run game back on track and hit a few shots over the top against this banged-up, talent deficient secondary, this one can really get out of hand.

It is also worth noting that Miami has the No. 1 special teams in the nation per S&P, an area where UVA has struggled. Kicker Jose Borregales might be the best in the nation, and punter Lou Hedley is averaging 47.6 yards/punt, good for 5th in the nation.

The Wager

The odds makers got this number wrong. The Canes are just more talented at every position group and will be motivated for a night game at Hard Rock. The Cavs are banged up bad in key positions that play right into what Miami wants to do. Miami should put this one out of reach early.* I expect this line to close over 14, so get on it now. Keep an eye on UVA’s injuries, and if they stay banged up in the secondary, I would play this one up to -16.5. This one has the potential to get ugly.



Miami -12.5 (2 units).



*I almost suggested a 1q bet as well, based on the following:

UVA’s has been outscored in the 1st quarter this season as follows: 10-0, 10-0, 14-0 & 14-3. Meanwhile, UM in the first quarter has outscored its opponents - outside Clemson - by a combined score of 42-13. UVA plays musical chairs trying to find a QB, the Canes should come out hot, looking to put this one out of reach early and rest its starters in the 2nd half, as they head into a bye week.
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In watching the UVA/Wake game, Wake runs an offense very similar to ours. RPO with a long mesh point. Whenever their QB saw 1-on-1, he threw it against their depleted secondary.

We have better athletes across the board. King didn't have enough time vs Clemson or Pitt, and it resulted in chucking a lot of deep 50/50 balls.

We should be able to exploit their secondary, not only with the intermediate routes, but hopefully with some of the young guys winning the 50/50 balls against lesser talent. We should be able to pass to open up the run. I expect the outside zone run game to make an appearance, and King to have a huge game.

I think we see the backups by the start of the 4th.
 
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I got big $$ on anal phist sodomy of these Vag cavs; don’t start the snowflake we scared crap!!
 
Unsider said:
For the lack of a better description, this team will be much tougher than Pitt. Can’t afford to come out flat.
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Don’t know how much ACC football you watch but the Pitt defense way better than UVA. They have 3qbs which literally means they have none.
 
Canes Brotherhood said:
Don’t know how much ACC football you watch but the Pitt defense way better than UVA. They have 3qbs which literally means they have none.
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While I agree with you, my original point was we’d better not come out flat, as historically, lesser teams have capitalized on our our sense of entitlement “cause we’re the U.” Especially fellow ACC teams we’ve historically beaten, and have something to prove. We’ve made their back ups look like the second coming of Joe Montana. I hope we win, and win handily, but we can’t come out flat.
 
chrisRMNU said:
I watched the UVA vs WF game. There is no reason why we should have a defender more than 10 yards from the LOS. They pose almost no vertical passing threat and even the short throws are half accurate floaters. Where they can hurt you is in the running game, especially with the QB run. #99 has the ability to break tackles or make you miss and enough wheels to get the edge.

On defense, they are what they are. They play tough and have a few guys who can play. They do a pretty good job at building the wall against zone stretch runs. WF did break off a few runs but they also were stuffed quite a few times. Where WF did have a lot of success was intermediate to deep passing game. I think we can really attack the seams With Mallory/Jordan and hopefully some WR's step up (Smith?).

I think we break this one open at some point and win comfortably.

41-16 Canes.
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Wait. 99 isn’t on defense. Lol jk but not really. WTH do QBs get DL numbers.
 
Unsider said:
While I agree with you, my original point was we’d better not come out flat, as historically, lesser teams have capitalized on our our sense of entitlement “cause we’re the U.” Especially fellow ACC teams we’ve historically beaten, and have something to prove. We’ve made their back ups look like the second coming of Joe Montana. I hope we win, and win handily, but we can’t come out flat.
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Yes with that I agree. I think coming out flat was a bigger concern vs Pitt after the Clemson loss. I truly believe team comes out on fire and we win comfortably.
 
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Betonline is only allowing $1k bets for this game. I am disappoint. I was ready to bet the pot again.
 
**** it. I found a way to get more money on the game. The over is the one I'm worried about.. I dunno.
bets.webp
 
Running quarterbacks always scare me a little. But neither of these guys I Bryce Perkins. We come in with the same game plan we used for Bryce and we should be fine.
 
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