FL Cane
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Another November and CFB regular season in the books. Here are some thoughts on Miami and the CFB world as we enter the post-season.
- Miami had a dominating 38-7 win yesterday over Pitt, to cap another 10-win season. Miami has now won 10 games back-to-back for the first time in 22 years. This is also the first time Miami has had more than 9 wins in back-to-back years since 2016-2017.
- There's no doubt that this program has turned a corner. We are 20-5 since the start of the 2024 season. In the two seasons before that, we were 12-13. Miami is, again, a nationally relevant program. We have multiple ranked wins to our name. We have talent and depth. We have elite recruiting. Even in those five losses, all five of which were inexcusable, we lost by a possession. I have many criticisms of Mario, but I'll give credit where it's due. He has accomplished his goal of bringing Miami back to national relevance. Three goals remain, though: winning a conference championship, winning a CFP game, and winning a national championship. Much remains to be done, but we're closer than we've been in decades.
- Along with turning a corner and being on track, Miami is the preeminent college football program in Florida by a wide margin. Florida State is a disaster and is returning a coach who's had 4 losing seasons out of 6 total. They will not be relevant until 2027 at earliest, assuming they make a good coaching hire (they are 0-2 on outside hires in the last 40-something years). As for Florida, they are also a disaster. Compared to FSU, though, their silver lining is a new regime taking the reins in 2026. That's where it ends, though, as the Gators seem on track to hire Jon Sumrall, a very similar candidate to former coach Billy Napier.
- Many are convinced that ND is a lock for the CFP. This is despite a H2H loss against us, and both teams now having nearly identical analytics. I am not convinced that ND gets in over us. In fact, I think we get in over them. For one, a solid 70-75% of CFB media is pushing for Miami over ND. Additionally, the CFP was counting on Miami dropping a game after the SMU loss. We did the opposite, with four blowout wins, three of which were against common opponents with ND, who we beat worse. Even Stewart Mandel and Paul Feinbaum, no fans of Miami, have been arguing that Miami should be in over ND. When push comes to shove, and with identical analytics, I do think we are the objective choice. Putting in ND over us would essentially tell the world that CFB is rigged and that the games don't matter.
- OU is not a legitimate CFP contender. They have a non-existent offense, three of their good wins ended up being bad teams, and their one good win is against Alabama. They will get bounced in the first round. Speaking of Alabama...
- The Crimson Tide have taken a turn for the worse. After a dominant stretch following a shocking loss to FSU, Alabama has looked bad against OU and 5-6 Auburn. The CFP will have a tough choice to make in a few weeks, particularly if Alabama losses by a wide margin to UGA in the SECCG.
- No reason for Vandy to Jump Miami, even after being perenially ranked but terrible Tennessee (who is only ranked to bolster other SEC resumes). Miami should Jump BYU if they lose again to Texas Tech.
- It hasn't been said enough, the ACC is a joke of a conference led by complete morons. This conference created a convoluted tiebreaker system whereby a 7-5 team won out against a 10-2 Miami and a few other ranked opponents. Blows my mind, and the conference absolutely has to change this going into next year. Defer to CFP rankings for any 3 way tie.
- UVA is going to win the ACC and promptly get blown out in the first round of the CFP. Miami would be a ten-point favorite against UVA on a neutral field. They've had a great year, but are not a good team whatsoever. Same applies to BYU. Great year for them, but not a good team.
