- Joined
- Sep 29, 2014
- Messages
- 1,536
I posted some of this earlier in another thread, and then the other part in the WEZ due to a request or two, but I figured this info maybe deserved its own thread and could create a decent discussion. It's a little lengthy, but if you find it too long to read, then go **** yourself. You're on a forum.
Here's some other stats that may be telling.
Miami vs FAU
470 Yards gained
191 Pass 279 Rush
214 Yards allowed
167 Pass 47 Rushing
FAU season averages
330 yards gained
199 Pass 131 Rush
490 Yards allowed
240 Pass 250 Rush
Miami vs App St
549 Yards gained
385 Pass 126 Rush
241 Yards allowed
115 Pass 126 Rush
App St season averages
379 Yards gained
166 Pass 213 Rush
384 Yards allowed
250 Pass 134 Rush
Miami vs GT
355 Yards gained
241 Pass 114 Rush
361 Yards allowed
94 Pass 267 Rush
GT season averages
336 Yards gained
109 Pass 227 Rush
342 Yards allowed
223 Pass 119 Rush
So against GT and FAU we were roughly performing how teams do on average against their defense. Defensively we let GT have an average day, but we shut down FAU. Against App St we just dominated them completely offensively and defensively. Looking at total yards isn't the best way to judge a game, though.
FAU gives up 6.3 yards/play on the season. We gained 6.7 against them. We gave up 2.7 while they average 4.3
App St gives up 5.6. We gained 9.2 on them. We gave up 3.3 while they average 5.2.
GT gives up 5.7. We gained 7.7. We gave up 4.7 while they average 4.8.
We give up 3.6.
Looking at those stats we had a rough start to the FAU game, but once we found our footing we rolled on offense pretty easily, but that rough start barely got us nearly a half yard per play higher. Again, we just dominated App St with ease. These stats show how well our offense played against GT despite the total yards being so low. We only ran 46 plays against them while they ran 77 on us.
Defensively, we dominated App St and FAU while GT was average against us. I don't want to ever be average, but considering we started 3 true freshmen LB and had 2-3 big plays that gained them 20-30 yards, I'll take it. We struggled with the toss plays early on, but started to slow them down at the end of the game which was nice to see.
What I take away from all of this is that our offense outside of the first 20 minutes of the FAU game is having an easy time against everyone so far all the while staying as vanilla as possible really. I was at the App St and GT games and have re-watched all of our games about 3-4 times a piece and we've ran the same 10-12 plays over and over basically. Against App St we obviously had the one drive where we ran the same RPO bubble an entire drive almost. Against GT there were multiple drives where we went up the field running the same play 2-4 times straight. Coley's 35ish yard TD pass against App St was the same play that we ran right after the RB screen against GT for the big gain where Kaaya threaded the needle on the sideline. The curl/flat combo is being run over and over and working because Kaaya is making the right read every time.
The only time that I saw us open the playbook up was when GT scored to make it 28-21. Richt went with some tempo and ran some plays I didn't recognize and we basically got a first down every play and scored so easily it was like playing the scout team. After going up 35-21 Richt just bled the clock and took 3-4 yard rushes each time even if it meant we'd punt after a 4 minute 20 yard possession. You may not agree with getting conservative like that, but I don't mind it considering how long our young defense had been out there all day. Shorten the game when it's in hand to preserve your health.
I am not worried about our offense one bit. Richt isn't going to magically run 100 new plays against FSU, but there will obviously be new wrinkles and looks that he hasn't shown yet. We've had the luxury of playing as vanilla as we can. FSU has not. That benefits us greatly. Still, Richt is not the type of play caller that will run 56 unique plays all game. We're not going to run the same 10-12 plays against FSU, we will open it up much much more, but we will still be simpler than a lot of teams. The difference is that he preaches execution and this team has been executing highly so far. With execution from everyone every play you can still move the ball well as we have proven to date. Richt will make the defense adjust and when they do he mixes up his calls until they adjust and get a new weakness. I like his style. Some of you all might wish we were fooling the defense every play and I get why that is attractive, but you have to learn that is not who we will be with Richt calling plays. He expects execution every play and if he gets it, his offenses are very hard to stop because he knows what he's doing and he trains his QBs to know what they are doing.
If you all want, I can examine FSU like this as well so we can see how they've fared. I honestly don't know too much about them relative to Miami's stats. I know they've given up many yards and points, but they've faced high powered offenses. It would be neat to see if they gave up what these teams average each game or were as bad as they seemed and gave up even more than what their opposition averaged.
I apologize if there are mistakes or the flow of this post is weird. I'm just typing very quickly and my thoughts are racing. Just let me know if you all want FSU looked at. If I get enough requests I will gladly post it.
Okay, someone asked for an FSU analysis, so here it is.
Ole Miss vs FSU
Ole Miss gained 5.5 yds/play vs their season avg of 6.9
FSU gained 6.0 yds/play vs their season avg of 6.4
Ole Miss is giving 5.7 yards/play this year.
FSU ran 96 plays. Yes, 96. Ole Miss ran 69. It was a 380 to 580 total yards game with FSU having the obvious nod thanks to the play discrepancy.
Louisville vs FSU
LOU gained 7.9 yards/play. They're gaining 8.1/play this season.
FSU gained 3.9/play vs their avg of 6.4
LOU gives up 4.5/play.
FSU ran 72 plays, LOU ran 67. This was really just an ugly game for FSU. I hope Diaz watched tape of LOU's defense on repeat, though FSU got demoralized early on which resulted in even poorer play as the game went on.
USF vs FSU
7.6 yards a play for USF. They average 6.9.
FSU was 7.6 as well. 6.4 season avg.
USF gives up 5.5/play.
FSU ran 85 plays. USF ran 58. It's kinda weird that in this game and Ole Miss that both play totals were the same two numbers just switched around, or at least I find it weird.
UNC vs FSU
UNC gets 7.4 yards per play. They have averaged 6.6 on the season.
FSU got 7.7. Their avg is 6.4.
UNC gives up 6.0/play.
FSU 77 plays. UNC 73.
FSU's defense has gotten worse and worse as the year goes on statistically. We all watched the Ole Miss game, though, and saw how conservative they got which ultimately led to their demise and killed their offense. They were having their way on offense until they called off the dogs. Then they turned the ball over every 5 plays it felt like. Louisville also called off the dogs some, but their yards/play wasn't too far off from their season average, but when they first started rolling they were gaining 10+/play.
We don't have Lamar Jackson, but we do have a very talented offense. FSU's defense has been lost in coverage all year. They can't play zone at all and their corners are inconsistent in man right now. They have a strong DL, but the LBs behind them have been lost a good amount this year. If our OL steps up and gives the backs some room and they give Kaaya time, then oh boy.
FSU obviously has a talented offense. UNC and USF have no defense. Both of them suck *** on that side of the ball plus USF is USF. Ole Miss and Louisville both have very good defenses. Ole Miss's DL is nasty and had their way with FSU until they were on the field the entire 2nd half. I wish I had the tweet of the Mississippi DL killing FSU's RT. It was ugly. We all know who you have to focus on. Dalvin Cuck. Yes, he's killed us the last two years, but what back didn't thrash Dorito's defense? Still, Cook is a monster that can't be stopped. We have to limit his damage. I'd love to see someone get a clean shot on him and knock him out. He got shaken up last year by Jenkins(I think?). I'd love to see Pinckney have a tackle that we use for hype videos 20 years from now.
If you get to the Frenchman, then you can slow the offense down. They will do all they can to get Cuck the ball anyway they can. Handoffs, tosses, swing passes, or the midscreen that Jumbo has fallen in love with lately. If our boys have watched film, then they can set up a killshot on that screen play because Cuck's eyes are looking back towards the LOS while he is right in the middle of the field. He does usally have two OL upfield though, so our boys better be shedding blocks. If you've watched any of their Showtime Softcore series then you know that the Frenchman doesn't seem to have any leadership skills. He sits on the bench alone and cries when Jumbo asks him why he is alone. Go watch the Louisville episode or the episode from the UNC game. He hangs his head, stays quiet, and pouts. He makes Kaaya look like Tebow vocally.
We need Redwine to step it up this game. Corn has been lights out this year, but Redwine has been slow out of breaks. He does worse when playing off the line. He is a physical corner and hopefully Manny allows him to play in the face of the man across from him most of the night because that is where he shines. Colbert, I don't know about him, he hasn't played many snaps. He was great against FAMU, but... it is FAMU. He is very fast and looks to be very very agile which is nice to have at the CB spot. I am really hoping that he is as good as the camp talk made him out to be and now that he is healthy he can be on the field most of the game and can cover half as good as Corn. Seriously, Corn has been elite. He's earning himself a lot of money right now.
I expect FSU to do all they can to get Cook 1 on 1 with one of the freshmens, but I also expect Manny to do all he can to keep that from happening and to keep it simple so they have to read one key and play full speed. I feel confident the offense will have a good day. It is a rivalry game, it is the game, so the FSU defense will probably be better than they have been at least early on, but unless our OL ****s the bed I cannot see them limiting us to less than 35 points. The problem is can we slow Cook and their offense down enough? My prediction in the predictions thread was a 42-33 win and I still feel like that is what the score will be like. Hopefully Manny and the secondary surprise me and are much better than I expect them to be tomorrow. I have more confidence in our OL after watching them all year than I do the secondary and Diaz. I love Diaz, but I'm nervous that he will leave too many holes over the middle trying to get cute with pressure. Maybe our man Kul can slap him and tell him to let his boys eat while he lets the back 7 make the Frenchmen make reads and thread needles because I don't think he can beat us with his arm unless we give up crossing routes all night.
