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S&P Rankings after Week 2

scrantoncane

scrantoncane

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Miami 29th overall. 43rd on offense. 28th on defense.

For those that don’t know, S&P is a metric created by Bill Connelly, who got hired by ESPN this year. In his words - “In a single sentence, it is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of CFB efficiency.” It has become one of the main sets of power ratings Sportsbooks use to set opening lines.

For reference, we are the highest ranked 0-2 team. Tenn is next at 47th overall, followed by Fresno at 51st. We are ahead of many 2-0 teams (including UVA at 32).

19. Utah
20. Iowa
21. Wash
22. Wash St
23. USC
24. Texas

27. OK St
28. USCe

No one is happy at 0-2, but we are still power rated as a fringe top 25 team. Hopefully we can get right before the bulk of the ACC schedule.
 
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scrantoncane said:
Miami 29th overall. 43rd on offense. 28th on defense.

For those that don’t know, S&P is a metric created by Bill Connelly, who got hired by ESPN this year. In his words - “In a single sentence, it is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of CFB efficiency.” It has become one of the main sets of power ratings Sportsbooks use to set opening lines.

For reference, we are the highest ranked 0-2 team. Tenn is next at 47th overall, followed by Fresno at 51st. We are ahead of many 2-0 teams (including UVA at 32).

19. Utah
20. Iowa
21. Wash
22. Wash St
23. USC
24. Texas

27. OK St
28. USCe

No one is happy at 0-2, but we are still power rated as a fringe top 25 team. Hopefully we can get right before the bulk of the ACC schedule.
Click to expand...
This can’t be I thought we were folding the program based on cIS
 
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scrantoncane said:
Miami 29th overall. 43rd on offense. 28th on defense.

For those that don’t know, S&P is a metric created by Bill Connelly, who got hired by ESPN this year. In his words - “In a single sentence, it is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of CFB efficiency.” It has become one of the main sets of power ratings Sportsbooks use to set opening lines.

For reference, we are the highest ranked 0-2 team. Tenn is next at 47th overall, followed by Fresno at 51st. We are ahead of many 2-0 teams (including UVA at 32).

19. Utah
20. Iowa
21. Wash
22. Wash St
23. USC
24. Texas

27. OK St
28. USCe

No one is happy at 0-2, but we are still power rated as a fringe top 25 team. Hopefully we can get right before the bulk of the ACC schedule.
Click to expand...

I'll say it again.

The DATA screams a good (not great) organization that consistently has catastrophic/significant out of tolerance errors that then ruin all the good (not great) data sets.

Manolo..if you are listening...hire an HRO expert right now.

MAYBE salvage something respectable by end of season. MAYBE.

Would set a good foundation going into Spring and 2020.

2019 is essentially lost.
 
Caneman2 said:
Miami does not seek to be the 29th best team in America.

Anyway, I personally think he overrates Miami.
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It’s not his personal ratings, per se. Its a model that is meant to take subjectivity out of the equation.

If you read the article, you can also see that the model says UNC isn’t as good as they’ve looked. How can that be? Well, we out gained them 489-389. We shot ourselves in the foot, and the model accounts for that.

As another poster said, Saggarin also has us 29.

If we are 2-0, we are a fringe top 10 team. I am not happy being 29. I’m simply pointing out that the metrics say we are a decent football team.
 
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2 questions:
1. Do any of these metrics account for refs cheating?
2. Does anyone have video of the holding call on #99 DL while he was getting blocked?

Biased penalties and no-calls had a much greater impact on the last game than 4th & 17.
 
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Was waiting for this one. Advanced box score. Manny was right, Miami dominated a lot of this game. 31% win expectancy at the end of the game for UNC. Give me a break. Again, as I’ve been saying since the minute the gator game ended, wayyyyyy too many opportunities wasted to be 2-0, but we’ve certainly played well enough at times to be.

0.73 opportunities per drive (national average is 0.46) and 3.38 points per opportunity. A full point less than the National average. So many goddamned wasted chances.
 
UMovement said:
2 questions:
1. Do any of these metrics account for refs cheating?
2. Does anyone have video of the holding call on #99 DL while he was getting blocked?

Biased penalties and no-calls had a much greater impact on the last game than 4th & 17.
Click to expand...

What bad officiating calls and non-calls were there?
 
Anyway, my prediction is that Miami will be 5-7 and ranked 56th in S&P at the end of the year.
 
Barboni said:
I've followed Connelly and the S&P for a while, but:

He has South Carolina ranked 28th and North Carolina who beat both South Carolina and us, at 56.
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Meaning, UNC shouldn’t have won either game.

Again, the model is meant to take the subjectivity out (who won, how did they “look”) and instead ask who won certain metrics.

For example, offensive efficiency is largely measured by success rate, which is defined as getting (i) 50% of needed yards on 1st down, (ii) 70% on 2nd down, and (iii) 100% on 3rd and 4th down. So it takes the play call, execution and all those variables out, and just objectively measures whether you got enough yards to put yourself in proper down and distance to succeed.

The original article is here, although I believe he continuously tweaks the formulas:

www.footballstudyhall.com

College football's 5 most important stats

Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors most directly correlated to winning football games. Check out the numbers.
www.footballstudyhall.com www.footballstudyhall.com

Again, as it relates to UNC being rated below USCe and Miami, it’s because both of those teams should’ve won, but fcked up and blew it. I watched both games, and in this instance I’d say the model holds true.
 
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