First, let me just say that I cannot remember the last Miami v. FSU game where Miami did not give up the lead once and thoroughly dominated throughout. 2001 is the last game I can remember off the top of my head where that happened, and the Canes came ready to play. Hats of to Coach Diaz and the team.
On FSU, their program is in a death spiral. There are a number of factors contributing to this, none of which are easy to remedy at the moment. FSU's about as bad as we were when we hit rock bottom in 2007 when we followed up an atrocious 2006 season with a 5-7 campaign. FSU's looking to go, over the past three years 7-5 (2017), 5-7 (2018), and 5-7 (2019). Here are a few reasons why their death spiral doesn't look to end anytime soon.
- Willie Taggart: Like many others on this board and in the CFB world, anyone not affiliated with FSU knew that Taggart was a trainwreck hire for the school. While he did get a school like Western Kentucky bowl eligible in his tenure there and did pull off an 11-win season at USF, there were warning signs everywhere. For one, Taggart was on the brink of getting fired at USF until he changed his entire offensive scheme and salvaged his team's season. Once able, he jumped to Oregon where he went a mediocre 7-5 with a pretty talented roster. With short stints at WKU, USF, and Oregon, Taggart had a career losing record as an HC and was also known for being a terrible game day coach, particularly in the second half.
FSU sputtered to a 5-7 finish in 2018 and looks to do the same this year. Unless they can pull off a win at BC next week, they will not be bowl eligible. Taggart is never going to do it at FSU, and he is their program's Al Golden or Will Muschamp. His staff hires have also been disappointing, like Golden and Muschamp's, and have not panned it. Kendal "Da Gawd" Briles has been exposed this year, though to be fair to him, he has the worst OL in the country to deal with. Overall, so long as Taggart is at FSU, they'll continue to bury themselves in a hole like we did with Randy Shannon and Al Golden.
- Athletic Department Financial Problems/Taggarts Buyout: Even if FSU wanted to fire Taggart, which is likely the position that many in their Athletic Department hold, the school is not in a financially suitable position to do so. For one, Taggart is owed 85% of the remaining value on his contract if he was fired at the end of this season, a total that comes out to $17 Million. That's not including the cost to buy out the rest of his staff's contracts as well, which would put the cost of any coaching staff termination well over $20 Million. That leaves little money left over to go after a top tier coach and to give that new coach the funds to put together a good staff.
Even a well funded and profitable athletic department would have an issue paying a buyout as large as Taggart's, and FSU's athletic department is far from functional. In 2018, FSU's athletic department ran a $3 Million Dollar deficit. Additionally, in May 2019, FSU's athletic department needed a $6 Million dollar cash transfer from its biggest boosters to balance it's 2019 budget. FSU's ticket sales for the year have also been atrocious. I saw somewhere that FSU had only sold 65% of its tickets for the season, compared to Miami which has sold 85%. Overall, the school has needed to reduce its budget for its athletic programs, freeze hiring, and privatize the athletic department as a whole. FSU isn't in a financial position to buyout Taggart and his staff or hire a top tier coach and support staff.
- Taggart has an argument for next year, helped by mitigating circumstances. Along with a terrible financial situation, Taggart & staff can make the argument that they deserve another year. For one, Taggart did inherit a mess from Jimbo Fisher who's deteriorated relationship with the athletic department at FSU trickled down to the team and eventually led to his departure. Additionally, despite a relatively high blue-chip ratio, FSU had a bare cupboard at various positions on the team. Taggart hasn't had two full recruiting cycles, and OC Kendal Briles hasn't even been with the team for a year. All in all, considering the financial situation, despite a poor 5-7 finish Taggart likely has an argument for at least one more season. Considering the mess he inherited and the lack of recruiting cycles he's had to "build" the program he envisions.
- FSU's culture is broken. Kirk Herbstreit said it best in his recap of yesterday's games on Instagram. FSU's players are more concerned with fighting, talking trash on social media, committing stupid penalties, and playing undisciplined football than actually doing what successful teams do to win. This was also a problem in the Jimbo era as well. FSU was hitting all cylinders when things went right, but whenever they faced a modicum of adversity the wheels always fell off. Say what you want about our guys over the past two years, but they never give up. Yes, we commit stupid penalties, but we don't try to start fights (like Tamarion Terry was doing all day yesterday) or talk trash on social media as if we're not a 4-4 football team. Culture is vital for any team to succeed, and there are more cancers in FSU's locker room than leaders at the moment. Any good HC, let alone an average one like Taggart, would have a hard time turning that around.
- Even if FSU was able to pony up the money to fire Taggart & Staff, who do they bring in? This is a question that's starting to be asked more considering how poorly Taggart has been providing. For one, considering the expense of cleaning house, FSU wouldn't have much money to play with unless their boosters decided to step up again. That would be hard considering that booster money would be needed for any buyout. Who though, even in the most optimal situation, would be a realistic option for the program?
For one, Urban Meyer isn't going to Tallahassee anytime soon. While footballscoop.com did publish a recent report that FSU was planning to go after Meyer post-Taggart, that's likely tough talk from their FSU booster source. Additionally, FSU doesn't have the money to get Meyer or provide him the funds to put together a staff. Not to mention that Meyer has better options if he was to get back in the coaching game (USC and Notre Dame for one), and there's no telling whether he'd want to engage in a 2-3 year rebuild towards the end of his career. Regardless of the info from FSU porsters on Warchant, Meyer is as likely for FSU as Gruden was for Miami back in 2010. After Meyer, it isn't clear which top tier coach their program would go after. Les Miles at Kansas could be an option, but he currently has a decent gig with the Jayhawks and, again, would demand pay equivalent to Taggart's ($5 Million a year). There'd also have to be an account for FSU's lack of experience in coaching searches. They've hired one external HC since Bobby Bowden, and it's blown up in their faces. All in all, they'd likely have to take a risk on an up and coming coach and hope it works out. They could poach a guy like Fuente from VT, but like his current tenure, he'd go nowhere.
Prediction: Taggart, though a dead man walking, gets one more year at FSU. Much like Miami after the 2014 season, when we all knew Al Golden was a dead man walking, FSU is not in the financial position to buyout Taggart. Additionally, like Golden, Taggart has an argument that the situation he inherited merits at least one more year. Taggart's buyout drops significantly next year, which puts the school in a better position to get rid of him.
The best-case scenario for us would be an FSU win against BC next week, and an FSU win in a low tier bowl to get to 7-6 on the year. That lowers the heat on Taggart's seat and fully guarantees another year at the helm for him.
Other Notes
- Happened to be driving by UM when the team got back last night, had dinner in the area, and happened to see Bubba Bolden on crutches and in a cast. Don't know if it's precautionary, but still something to look after.
- Dan Mullen proved yet again that while he is a good coach, he isn't great. UF got thoroughly outplayed by UGA yesterday and the Bulldogs we're comfortably in the lead most of the game. Mullen will consistently have 9-10 win seasons and the occasional 11-win season in his tenure at UF. So long though as UF has Kirby Smart at UGA, Nick Saban at Alabama, and Ed Orgeron at LSU, they're going nowhere. Mullen is good, not elite, and it showed yesterday.
- Calling it now, Mizzou upsets Florida next week. This isn't a great Mizzou team, but they have enough guys (just like last year) to pull out a win against a deflated Florida team at home.
- Our guys played their first complete game of the season. Hats off to them and Manny. Hoping that we can rip off three more wins to end the year at 8-4 and get into a mid-tier bowl game (most likely Orlando).
