Devils advocate to my own take... he has recruited HS talent at a level that most programs don't do outside of the first year bump class and when they win 10+ games. That's usually why they can't get over the hump. Also, he's reloaded OL and DL - usually the hardest area to get up to par to compete at that level.
I'm already skeptical but year 3 will be more telling. Less than 9 wins and I'll take the check to the bank that he'll never do anything here. There are basically 0 Manny holdovers left. His guys, his culture, his system. Some of the Manny guys left over are all starters and arguably top 10 players on the team... Restrepo, George, Rivers, Harrison-Hunte.