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Revisiting the 2017 and 2018 classes

GojiraCane said:
I’m not sure about that, but the attrition rate has been really high at times. Part of the challenge is having two head coaching changes in five years. Each change leads to higher than normal attrition.

The 2008 and 2012 classes had absurdly high attrition. A third of each class was gone within two years. 2010 was not much better.
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My man; I suggest you go all the way back to the class of Lost class of 2004. Again, I stand equivocally by what I said; Miami has to be leading the nation in attrition & bust rate in the nation.
 
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Rellyrell said:
My man; I suggest you go all the way back to the class of Lost class of 2004. Again, I stand equivocally by what I said; Miami has to be leading the nation in attrition & bust rate in the nation.
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That's a pretty good counter. I've previously done an analysis on Canes attrition but it started in 2006.

The 2010 - 2013 period was absolutely absurd...almost farcical when it came to attrition.

Left within two years of signing:
2010: 48%
2011: 55%
2012: 44%
2013: 41%

In terms of overall annual attrition, 2010 (31 players), 2011 (31 players), and 2019 (32 players) were really bad.

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GojiraCane said:
That's a pretty good counter. I've previously done an analysis on Canes attrition but it started in 2006.

The 2010 - 2013 period was absolutely absurd...almost farcical when it came to attrition.

Left within two years of signing:
2010: 48%
2011: 55%
2012: 44%
2013: 41%

In terms of overall annual attrition, 2010 (31 players), 2011 (31 players), and 2019 (32 players) were really bad.

View attachment 117852
View attachment 117853
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Sheesh. Smh.
We need to do better; I used to always think, why is it that every year we’re considered young? Well, now we know.
 
2018 class is contributing significantly. Not sure if this analysis is giving the proper FULL picture. Have we had transfers? YEP but many are still here and those who are many are STARTERS. SMH
 
bear said:
2018 class is contributing significantly. Not sure if this analysis is giving the proper FULL picture. Have we had transfers? YEP but many are still here and those who are many are STARTERS. SMH
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Brevin Jordan - Legit
Nesta - Jury out
Mark Pope - Jury out
Al Blades - Good
DJ Scaife - hopefully takes next level
Cam Harris - Solid backup now starter but for how long?
Gurvan Hall - Flashes
Gilbert Frierson - Out of position
Will Mallory - Looking to breakout
DJ Ivey - Terrible
Dee Wiggins - Looking ot breakout
Greg Ross - Beast

How exactly are they contributing significantly outside Brevin/Greg Ross/Blades/Hall?
 
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Rellyrell said:
Sheesh. Smh.
We need to do better; I used to always think, why is it that every year we’re considered young? Well, now we know.
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Each year had their own individual qualifiers, such as:

  • Shannon to Golden coaching switch
  • NCAA investigation which at first seemed likely to net Miami a very severe sanction
  • General misfortune
Add them together, and you have attrition that is close to 50%. Ugh.
 
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GojiraCane said:
That's a pretty good counter. I've previously done an analysis on Canes attrition but it started in 2006.

The 2010 - 2013 period was absolutely absurd...almost farcical when it came to attrition.

Left within two years of signing:
2010: 48%
2011: 55%
2012: 44%
2013: 41%

In terms of overall annual attrition, 2010 (31 players), 2011 (31 players), and 2019 (32 players) were really bad.

View attachment 117852
View attachment 117853
Click to expand...

How can you adjust for era? 2019 is not comparable to 2010 or 2011.

The last 3 heisman winners and #1 overall NFL draft picks were transfers. 3 of the 4 starting QBs in the playoffs last year were transfers. It's just a completely different era.

Maybe you can look at net attrition instead?
 
HurricaneHauk said:
247sports.com

Miami 2017 Football Commits

Miami
247sports.com 247sports.com

Terrible recruiting class in hindsight

12th ranked class with 24 players recruited, most players would be be seniors now

6 guys transferred

7 guys have contributed nothing either to injury or just plain being bad

Had 4 guys leave early in Bandy, Thomas, Garvin, Deejay Dallas

Rest who have contributed are : Navaughn Donaldson, Nkosi Perry, J.Dean(Juco), Mike Harley, Jon Ford, Amari Carter, Corey Gaynor

247sports.com

Miami 2018 Football Commits

Miami
247sports.com 247sports.com

Suppose to be another good class ranked 8 with 23 commits

7 transfers

12 guys who have contributed with Greg Ross our 3rd lowest ranked recruit after transfer being the biggest stud followed by Brevin Jordan our highest remaining player after transfers

4 guys who have done nothing
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Bobby Bowden was once interviewed about recruiting. He said on avergae classes have about 1/3 significant contributers (starters, with a handful of all-conference team members). About a 1/3 of the class are role players and make some contribution. And finally, he said about 1/3 become non-contributors, often washing out or transfering to other schools. If you take Bowden's model and overlay it on a 25 man class, you get 8 starters/stars, 9 contributors and 8 busts. Take another look at those 2017 and 2018 classes and how have they shaken out? It would be interesting.
 
HurricaneHauk said:
Brevin Jordan - Legit. First rounder. Perhaps best TE in college football
Nesta - Jury out - injured but he brought it when he played
Mark Pope - Jury out- awful system for him. Watch him shine this year
Al Blades - Good- agree
DJ Scaife - hopefully takes next level- best OL we have
Cam Harris - Solid backup now starter but for how long?- had several TD’s called back but very servíciele.
Gurvan Hall - Flashes- agree
Gilbert Frierson - Out of position- has not done much
Will Mallory - Looking to breakout- agree
DJ Ivey - Terrible- not terrible IMO
Dee Wiggins - Looking ot breakout- our Best wr last year?
Greg Ross - Beast- who the **** is Ross?

How exactly are they contributing significantly outside Brevin/Greg Ross/Blades/Hall?
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See above. Just my take but the class is a good one.
 
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ageezy said:
still think it's too early to pass judgement on 2018 ... we're expecting big years from alot of guys in that class: scaife, campbell, blades, mallory, jordan, davis, pope, hall, silvera, ivey, frierson, wiggins, GR)

i count five starters on offensive (scaife, jordan, campbell, davis, wiggins)
five on defense (blades, hall, silvera, frierson, ivey, GR)
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It’s do or die time for this group. They still have a chance to flip the script, but times running out. We need them in the worse way if we want to be successful this up coming season.
 
Perspective is important. I'll bet our "bust" rate is about on par with the majority of programs.

For example, 6 of the 29 players signed in Alabama's top ranked 2017 recruiting class have left the program, 7 have contributed little to nothing.

That's a 45% "bust" rate for the preeminent football factory in the country.
 
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Moonman said:
Perspective is important. I'll bet our "bust" rate is about on par with the majority of programs.

For example, 6 of the 29 players signed in Alabama's top ranked 2017 recruiting class have left the program, 7 have contributed little to nothing.

That's a 45% "bust" rate for the preeminent football factory in the country.
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If your ultimate point is that a statistical comparison is not the full picture, I agree. But even then, I'm not sure I would use Alabama as a comparative.

First, define "left the program" and who you are talking about. There are many reasons to leave a program like Alabama, particularly one with high-quality starters and, perhaps, not as much of a chance to gain playing time. For instance, when Jalen Hurts "leaves the program", that is not an indication of "bust".

Second, define "contributed little to nothing" and who you are talking about. Some Alabama players have had injuries, it can impact contribution and development.

Third, when that same recruiting class has resulted in MULTIPLE first round draft choices who left EARLY, and may still contribute multiple draft choices from the seniors who stayed, it is much easier to overlook busts. So even if Miami was "on par" with Alabama for "bust rate", we lag far, far behind in "success rate" as measured by high NFL draft choices.

Finally, it's Ala-freakin-bama. Whatever they are doing, even if it means that not everyone in a 25 person class develops into all-world talent, they are still doing it right. They are still fielding a top team with few gaps and significant depth. To look at numbers of players who "have contributed little to nothing", and to think that is equivalent to Miami by numbers, is a misleading stat.

The bottom line is that Miami's attrition has done significant damage to Miami. We have trouble maintaining a full scholarship roster. We struggle with depth and we have significant deficiencies at certain starting positions. We are forced to play true freshmen because our other options suck. Miami has lost some higher-quality recruits, it's not just the lower-ranked reaches who have left our program for more playing time elsewhere.

And, it should go without saying, we have NOT had the same 13 year run of success that Alabama has had.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
If your ultimate point is that a statistical comparison is not the full picture, I agree. But even then, I'm not sure I would use Alabama as a comparative.

First, define "left the program" and who you are talking about. There are many reasons to leave a program like Alabama, particularly one with high-quality starters and, perhaps, not as much of a chance to gain playing time. For instance, when Jalen Hurts "leaves the program", that is not an indication of "bust".

Second, define "contributed little to nothing" and who you are talking about. Some Alabama players have had injuries, it can impact contribution and development.

Third, when that same recruiting class has resulted in MULTIPLE first round draft choices who left EARLY, and may still contribute multiple draft choices from the seniors who stayed, it is much easier to overlook busts. So even if Miami was "on par" with Alabama for "bust rate", we lag far, far behind in "success rate" as measured by high NFL draft choices.

Finally, it's Ala-freakin-bama. Whatever they are doing, even if it means that not everyone in a 25 person class develops into all-world talent, they are still doing it right. They are still fielding a top team with few gaps and significant depth. To look at numbers of players who "have contributed little to nothing", and to think that is equivalent to Miami by numbers, is a misleading stat.

The bottom line is that Miami's attrition has done significant damage to Miami. We have trouble maintaining a full scholarship roster. We struggle with depth and we have significant deficiencies at certain starting positions. We are forced to play true freshmen because our other options suck. Miami has lost some higher-quality recruits, it's not just the lower-ranked reaches who have left our program for more playing time elsewhere.

And, it should go without saying, we have NOT had the same 13 year run of success that Alabama has had.
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All of this makes perfect sense.

However, there is a narrative that we have an unusual number of "busts"...and that's what I'm arguing against. The quality of our recruiting classes notwithstanding, we aren't unique.

Also, while the past two seasons have been unusual in the amount of transfers we've added, everyone does or tries to do what we do.

Bill Snyder built KSU from one of the worst programs in the country to a perennial contender by stacking juco and other transfers year after year.

Alabama added two highly rated juco transfers in the class of 2017.

Finally, when I say "left the program" I'm using the same standard that was used in the OP.

I'm not saying our recurring doesn't need to improve. I'm just saying that the idea that we have more busts than average is unproven.

P.S. I'll bet that if you compared the average ranking of the players that have left Alabama vs those who have left Miami you'd find that Alabama's is higher.
 
Moonman said:
All of this makes perfect sense.

However, there is a narrative that we have an unusual number of "busts"...and that's what I'm arguing against. The quality of our recruiting classes notwithstanding, we aren't unique.

Also, while the past two seasons have been unusual in the amount of transfers we've added, everyone does or tries to do what we do.

Bill Snyder built KSU from one of the worst programs in the country to a perennial contender by stacking juco and other transfers year after year.

Alabama added two highly rated juco transfers in the class of 2017.

Finally, when I say "left the program" I'm using the same standard that was used in the OP.
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Bill Snyder built the K-State JuCo machine before the IC rules. Thus, when someone left K-State, it was easier to replace that scholarship with a JuCo.

Also, I have never argued against taking JuCos to address needs and "misses", I'm just saying it is more complex today than it ever has been.

I would say this. Miami has an unusual number of "busts" when you factor in the opportunity to play quickly, while some of Alabama's "busts" are just a crowded depth chart. Alabama is "if you can make it there, you'll make it anywhere", while Miami is "WTF, you can't beat out Todd Parrott or Marshall Few?"

And Miami's "busts" rarely go on to do anything anywhere else. With the exception of Storm Johnson.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Bill Snyder built the K-State JuCo machine before the IC rules. Thus, when someone left K-State, it was easier to replace that scholarship with a JuCo.

Also, I have never argued against taking JuCos to address needs and "misses", I'm just saying it is more complex today than it ever has been.

I would say this. Miami has an unusual number of "busts" when you factor in the opportunity to play quickly, while some of Alabama's "busts" are just a crowded depth chart. Alabama is "if you can make it there, you'll make it anywhere", while Miami is "WTF, you can't beat out Todd Parrott or Marshall Few?"

And Miami's "busts" rarely go on to do anything anywhere else. With the exception of Storm Johnson.
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We haven't been recruiting at a high level.

We've been taking plan B and C kids for over a decade because 75% of the blue chip recruits in sofla have been leaving to play elsewhere.

We need to win to shift the paradigm among the sofla prep community.
 
Liberty City El said:
- Evals
- Coaching
- Development

Are more important than class rankings.
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Agree. We have been seriously lacking in the development and coaching department. Not sure our evals have been terrible, but been forced to take plan b/c kids when we miss out on the big fish.
 
Canesfan1899 said:
Agree. We have been seriously lacking in the development and coaching department. Not sure our evals have been terrible, but been forced to take plan b/c kids when we miss out on the big fish.
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Our plan B/C kids are rated much better than other team in the coastal though! Those teams would kill for our plan D kids lmao
Yet they still beat our a$ses! Coaching and development as you said. That’s why we’ve sucked for almost two decades.
 
Moonman said:
We haven't been recruiting at a high level.

We've been taking plan B and C kids for over a decade because 75% of the blue chip recruits in sofla have been leaving to play elsewhere.

We need to win to shift the paradigm among the sofla prep community.
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Again, I largely agree, which is why Miami's "bust rate" is so brutal, compared with other schools.

Let me see if I can spin this another way.

Miami HAS HAD highly recruited classes for the past 15 years. Maybe not as good as in prior years, but **** respectable.

Rivals Class Rank
2005 - 7
2006 - 14
2007 - 19
2008 - 5
2009 - 15
2010 - 16
2011 - 36
2012 - 9
2013 - 20
2014 - 12
2015 - 26
2016 - 23
2017 - 11
2018 - 6
2019 - 35
2020 - 12

The two times we fell out of the Top 26 were coaching-change years. We have recruited like a Top 25 team, but have not, in fact, BEEN a Top 25 team.

We have missed on high-end SoFla blue-chips AND we have had terrible attrition (and, yes, terrible coaching/development).

And when the classes aren't as good as they once were, the attrition hits us harder than it does for, say, Alabama.
 
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