I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.
There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.
1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below
To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.
This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.
2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:
UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)
These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.
3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.
4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?
5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.
For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)
Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.
Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:
Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)
However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.