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NFL Draft Reality

Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
Will Ferrell Elf GIF by filmeditor
 
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I am definitely a star guy, no doubt, however, one note.
There are considerably more ‘blue chip’ recruits in any cycle xonpared to draft picks.

2023 class: 457 4 and 5 star guys
2024 class: 477
2025 class: currently 403

There were 257 picks in this years draft. So they really should be getting picked at a much higher rate.

It’s the top 150 recruits that matter. And I would like to see their draft rate. It’s impressive that any 3 and 2 stars get picked at all.

Either way, you just need to be careful when considering the stars.
 
No gator maths detected in Rell's post anywhere.

I've internally struggled with the "stars matters" one for a bit, but technology is far more advanced in 2024 than it was in 2014, 2004 etc etc. and its only gonna keep going that way. Evaluating is always gonna be fundamentally key, but the likelihood of finding an Ed Reed/JJ Watt diamond in the rough is **** near 1 in 1000000 now.

Theres always gonna be a paper tiger 4 or 5 star(s) every year, naturally. But that ratio has been on a decline. Coaches still gotta know how to develop and put their talent in line with success, and there's always gonna be kids that pick the wrong school, whether that be scheme fit or otherwise. Even with the portal becoming a desolate ****show wild west hellscape, that still puts a lot of written off highly ranked recruits in position to realize their potential than ever before. I was just *****ing about the bama shout outs in the draft for their transfers yesterday lol.
 
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Hernandez throwing batting practice at this point. Football and Basketball spending money hopefully JD’s handlers will do the same this off-season. Need a big time catcher, shortstop and at least 2 quality starting pitchers from the portal.
 
Southern Oz said:
I am definitely a star guy, no doubt, however, one note.
There are considerably more ‘blue chip’ recruits in any cycle xonpared to draft picks.

2023 class: 457 4 and 5 star guys
2024 class: 477
2025 class: currently 403

There were 257 picks in this years draft. So they really should be getting picked at a much higher rate.

It’s the top 150 recruits that matter. And I would like to see their draft rate. It’s impressive that any 3 and 2 stars get picked at all.

Either way, you just need to be careful when considering the stars.
Click to expand...

I think the 1st thing u need is a committed staff. Just simply looking at a 247 or On3 site is not enough. U have to still scout, & that scouting includes not simply 7 v 7 games, but actual games. Some times a kid is a Blue Chip simply b/c they are so much more dominant than their competition; so now as a recruiter, it’s ur job to scout the talent they are playing, as well. If they are Tarzan, but they are playing a schedule full of Janes, how good are they really?

The other thing that’s essential is the identity of the team. One thing I’ve ?’d over the years is we’ve recruited a ton a blue chips, but they were square pegs forced in to round holes. So a lot of guys were put in failed positions off the jump, & that’s where development issues come in to play.

So I agree, it’s not strictly about stars, BUT the teams that are winning at an elite clip are not flooding their programs w/ stars, but also the NFL.
 
Last edited:
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
Good and fair analysis. It's a make or break year.
 
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CaneFanWNY said:
No gator maths detected in Rell's post anywhere.

I've internally struggled with the "stars matters" one for a bit, but technology is far more advanced in 2024 than it was in 2014, 2004 etc etc. and its only gonna keep going that way. Evaluating is always gonna be fundamentally key, but the likelihood of finding an Ed Reed/JJ Watt diamond in the rough is **** near 1 in 1000000 now.

Theres always gonna be a paper tiger 4 or 5 star(s) every year, naturally. But that ratio has been on a decline. Coaches still gotta know how to develop and put their talent in line with success, and there's always gonna be kids that pick the wrong school, whether that be scheme fit or otherwise. Even with the portal becoming a desolate ****show wild west hellscape, that still puts a lot of written off highly ranked recruits in position to realize their potential than ever before. I was just *****ing about the bama shout outs in the draft for their transfers yesterday lol.
Click to expand...
No gator math... Cool.. but.....
What about Steiner math?? The big bad booty daddy don't lie..
 
Agree. And we better make some noise this year.

This is literally our most important season, maybe ever. We're on the brink of being left out of the P2. The money was invested and now the money wants results or the money is going to dry up fast.

This season will define Cristobals coaching career.

IMO everything is on the line.
 
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Eric The Midget said:
Agree. And we better make some noise this year.

This is literally our most important season, maybe ever. We're on the brink of being left out of the P2. The money was invested and now the money wants results or the money is going to dry up fast.

This season will define Cristobals coaching career.

IMO everything is on the line.
Click to expand...

the future is now....
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
Click to expand...
You should be a sportswriter bruv
 
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TRick72 said:
5 of the 6 QBs taken in the first round were top 100 guys in their classes. 3 Five Stars, Jayden Daniels just outside at 35 and Drake Maye at 56. The lone “diamond in the rough” Michael Penix Jr at #548 spent 6 years in college honing his craft.
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It’s crazy that people still think it’s not worth it to sign blue chip quarterbacks. “You can just get guys in the portal”. Can you? We lucked into Cam Ward not declaring. After watching the draft he likely would have gone by round 3 if not 2. If we didn’t get Cam who were we going with? Poff? Will Howard who can’t beat out the competition at OSU? DJ Ukelele? No thanks. Even Penix was a huge risk. He put up decent numbers at Indiana but had a ton of injuries. There’s a reason he ended up at Washington.

Do blue chip quarterbacks bust? Of course they do. Should you abandon recruiting them to chase diamonds in the rough or hope that there’s a new guy for you in the portal every year? **** no.
 
@Rellyrell
So the question is, who do we have that has the potential to be drafted in the first 3 rounds next year? You have a bunch of guys that are drafted you better have the record to match.
 
MovingZen said:
@Rellyrell
So the question is, who do we have that has the potential to be drafted in the first 3 rounds next year? You have a bunch of guys that are drafted you better have the record to match.
Click to expand...

If I’m going to be honest, I have to see us play. Maybe Cam with a great yr? RBs are no longer valued like they once were unless u’re a Bijan Robison, Saquon Barkley type that look like Tarzan, have Tarzan-like numbers, & test like a freak athlete.

Based upon last season, I would say no one, but have to see this season.
 
Rellyrell said:
If I’m going to be honest, I have to see us play. Maybe Cam with a great yr? RBs are no longer valued like they once were unless u’re a Bijan Robison, Saquon Barkley type that look like Tarzan, have Tarzan-like numbers, & test like a freak athlete.

Based upon last season, I would say no one, but have to see this season.
Click to expand...
I guess it's a pretty young group but if you're thinking maybe 1+ it'll be interesting to see how the team ends up w/l wise. Shaping up to be a really interesting year in a lot of ways. I'm sure we all feel the same way but it better not be the same ol same ol Miami. We really need to take a big step forward this year.
 
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