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NFL Draft Reality

DTP said:
It’s crazy how much more accurate the recruiting sites are getting. There was a long period where half the first round picks in the draft were former 3 stars but as the years go by, it’s fewer and fewer. Pretty much, outside of linemen almost every early pick was a blue chip prospect.
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This is something that needs to get talked about more.. Film has gotten better thru years, Names rise much earlier, have ability to watch the talent in person that much more in person against other talent (camps, 7 on 7, etc.), these players get put in the system much earlier and are able to see their development.

And even with all that Miami who gets bluechippers cant produce, I have said it before but this is where 5 stars come to have dreams die? How can we have soo many not develop.. We basically had 2 this draft alone.. Jame Williams and LT.. EVERYONE wanted these guys, they have the measurables, James was all UGA, wanted by the best. He stayed home, it was a big deal.
 
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skyman said:
This is something that needs to get talked about more.. Film has gotten better thru years, Names rise much earlier, have ability to watch the talent in person that much more in person against other talent (camps, 7 on 7, etc.), these players get put in the system much earlier and are able to see their development.

And even with all that Miami who gets bluechippers cant produce, I have said it before but this is where 5 stars come to have dreams die? How can we have soo many not develop.. We basically had 2 this draft alone.. Jame Williams and LT.. EVERYONE wanted these guys, they have the measurables, James was all UGA, wanted by the best. He stayed home, it was a big deal.
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It’s not even that. We don’t have as many true blue chip players as everyone else, so when they don’t pan out as a top 3 round draft pick it’s a lot more noticeable.

Hopefully Miami gets to a place in the future where even if one or two 5 star guys flame out, they will have the depth in place where those kids either transfer out to another school or they get replaced in the lineup for taking plays off, stupid penalties etc.
 
DC3 said:
It’s not even that. We don’t have as many true blue chip players as everyone else, so when they don’t pan out as a top 3 round draft pick it’s a lot more noticeable.

Hopefully Miami gets to a place in the future where even if one or two 5 star guys flame out, they will have the depth in place where those kids either transfer out to another school or they get replaced in the lineup for taking plays off, stupid penalties etc.
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When you say "everyone else" do you mean uga/bama type or majority of ACC, heck the rest of cfb?

Because from what I remember reading we get more talent than majority of ACC and they regularly smack us up to a record of 7n5 yearly and what seems perpetuity..

"everyone else" might have different meanings
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve sat on this post for approx. a month b/c I wanted the draft to come to full fruition.

There’s several CIS narratives that need to be laid to rest.

1. Stars Do Indeed Matter. Out of the first 135 draft picks (The first 4-Rd picks are almost guaranteed a full contract):
-54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level
-37.0% were considered 3*
-8.2% were considered 2* or below

To put this in further context, just looking at the recruiting class of 2025, as an example, only 33% of the star rated players are considered Blue Chips, while 67% are considered 3*.

This proves that despite the higher quantity of 3* kids available, the Blue Chips are the ones who are undoubtedly getting drafted w/in the “guaranteed rounds” at an astronomically higher rate.

2. Winning Matters. Let’s examine:

UofM - 13 draft picks. (61.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Texas - 11 draft picks (54.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Bama - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UW - 10 draft picks (70% came w/in first 4-Rds)
FSU - 10 draft picks (60% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UO - 8 draft picks (87.5% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UGA - 8 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
PSU - 8 draft picks (62.5% came w/in first 4 Rds)
ND - 7 draft picks (42.8% came w/in first 4-Rds)
LSU - 6 draft picks (83.3% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OSU - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
Iowa - 4 draft picks (75% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UL - 4 draft picks (25% came w/in first 4-Rds)
OU - 3 draft picks (33% came w/in first 4-Rds)
UA - 3 draft picks (67% came w/in first 4-Rds)

These 15 teams went a combined 159-33 on the season, & accounted for 51.1% of the draft’s top 135 picks! The exceptions to this were both Ole Miss & OKSt. Both finished w/ 10+ wins, but failed to produce a top 135 pick.

3. Athleticism Matters. The top guys possessed not only game film, but gym film. These guys either had ideal height, weight, length (pause), and/or elite athleticism.

4. Character Matters. In speaking to a couple of scouts, some of the things they shared was that many began to focus on the “whys & hows” of a player. As example what was shared w/ me:
-Why is a highly rated player transferring so much?
-Why is a highly rated player not producing or developing as they mature?
-How many self inflicted penalties or turnovers were caused killing or extending drives in pivotal moments? (Mental Fortitude)
-How does the coaching staff view them, both past & present if they are a transfer?
-How do their teammates view them?
-How many lapse in judgment take place while on the field? (IQ)
-Are there character issues that present themselves in game, during timeouts, etc?

5. Coaching Matters. Again, in speaking to a couple of scouts, I was floored at how many kids come in ill prepared, & certain coaches have better reputations at having kids NFL ready from a physical & mental standpoint than others.

For instance, I was told if a 3* kid play for Coach A, & a 5* kid play for Coach B, they will almost always go w the non-Blue Chip kid b/c of the program they come from, & trust their developmental process. (Although I was told sometimes they still look at HS ratings + college game film, to gage if a kid can be coached up based upon potential)

Why do I say all of this? Well, here’s the honest truth; we have a perception problem. The other sad truth is this simple: The “mopes” tend to be more in tune to CFB, as a whole, vs. being strict fanatics of Miami. Therefore, when they say “Player A will be lucky to be drafted or Player A is not a 1st rounder”, history has shown it’s usually not shade as opposed to looking at everything in totality, & objectively.

Here’s something else that’s going to sting, & I mean no offense, just talking in reality:

Mario is currently underperforming his predecessors after 2 yrs both record wise & via draft (& this includes inherited players & transfers)

However there is good news? This can all be a thing of the past IF we have an expected good 3rd yr. Literally, we have the power to change the narrative moving forward. Hopefully, this will be our last embarrassing draft, & we can go back to being NFLU vs. 7th Rd/UDFAU.
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I think character and work ethic have been the reason most of our high 4 and 5* players don’t pan out. LT had a poor work ethic (showing up overweight last spring) and never truly developed. JW didn’t want to change positions and put in the work to be where he fit best. Jojo has put in more work in the past couple months than Mark Pope did his whole time here. Bain’s work ethic shows how disinterested Nesta Silvera was. I think Mario is doing a better job recruiting kids that want to work. In the past we just grabbed kids with high ceilings without paying any attention to character or work ethic. Hopefully we get better results on the next couple drafts.
 
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Great post @Rellyrell..dead on.
Shocked Kam went at end of round 3. I had all canes going day 3 or undrafted. All these cats should’ve come back for another year or transferred if they didn’t want to be in Miami..bad voices in heads..
 
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I know fans hate hearing this but we severely over value players due to homerism compared to the reality of how everyone else sees them... Meaning pro scouts/ management and such...
Sometimes our " favorite player" just isn't as good as we want him to be ... Happens all over the country...
 
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DTP said:
It’s crazy how much more accurate the recruiting sites are getting. There was a long period where half the first round picks in the draft were former 3 stars but as the years go by, it’s fewer and fewer. Pretty much, outside of linemen almost every early pick was a blue chip prospect.
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5 of the 6 QBs taken in the first round were top 100 guys in their classes. 3 Five Stars, Jayden Daniels just outside at 35 and Drake Maye at 56. The lone “diamond in the rough” Michael Penix Jr at #548 spent 6 years in college honing his craft.
 
DC3 said:
It’s not even that. We don’t have as many true blue chip players as everyone else, so when they don’t pan out as a top 3 round draft pick it’s a lot more noticeable.

Hopefully Miami gets to a place in the future where even if one or two 5 star guys flame out, they will have the depth in place where those kids either transfer out to another school or they get replaced in the lineup for taking plays off, stupid penalties etc.
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Well every year we look at the blue chip ratio and find we have enough.
 
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@Rellyrell , maybe I missed it, but following up on your stat, "54.8% were considered Blue Chips either at the HS or Transfer Portal level", what was the split of Blue Chip in HS vs not-Blue Chip in HS but Blue Chip in Transfer Portal? I expect we're going to see a lot more of the latter -- e.g., Ward and Martinez -- going forward.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
Great post and all facts. Put up or shut up year for us. If Mario is that guy and the staff coaches up to our talent, we should be able win 10+ and get some kids drafted in those top 4 rounds.
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I think the added ingredient to elite recruiting is competition. Mario is stacking talent, so if one guy isn't a fit for whatever reason, the next guy up can take that spot.

We've had a LOT of super talented kids on roster underperform both expectations and their natural God-given talent level, if not all out flame out. I attribute a lot of that to them believing they were gifted rotational snaps as true freshmen and the starting role by their second year.
 
DC3 said:
If we had enough we wouldn’t need to supplement the majority of the starting rosters with transfers
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Yeah, it's almost like there's someone paid to sort that kind of thing out. A place to focus blame, fault, or other shortcomings.

Decades of talent but something is missing.
 
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