mcmachete
Grassy Vet
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2013
- Messages
- 295
My take on how the top 15 shakes out after today...
Of the top 4, TCU goes down against their only real opponent. They should have never been in the top 4 conversation.
Truth be told, we haven't shown that we should be either. Not yet, anyway.
With the BCS - I mean playoff - rankings about to be released I thought I'd share my unsolicited take on where teams fit relative to each other. Wins and losses matter of course, but my approach is to consider how they've performed so far and how they'd fare against each other. So if a one-loss team is in a tier above an undefeated team, the implication is that, based on their performances thus far, the one loss team seems more likely be favored over the undefeated team if they were to face off.
Note: this is not what I think the rankings will be (Wisconsin and TCU will likely be higher, for example). This is how I think it looks like.
Elite Tier
So far these are the only two teams that look to be clear favorites for playoff contention. Fortunately, they will meet at the SEC championship and one team will necessarily lose. That said, so long as it's not a blowout it's doubtful the loser would drop out of the top 4-5. Both are very likely playoff bound, but at least one in the playoffs seems inevitable. That said, Georgia has seemed the most vulnerable. Their game against Auburn will inform us of their elite status, but it certainly seems like UGA has been picking up steam of late.
Sub-Elite Tier
Sub-Elite Tier features teams that could reasonably make an a stand in the playoffs. They're one notch below true elite or have the potential of being elite. Each one of these teams have tough matchups ahead, including conference championships - but Penn State's remaining path is easiest.
Almost There Tier
These teams are pure potential and could easily move up or down a tier with a single win or loss. They haven't proven themselves to truly be in the same conversation as the above teams... yet. Some control their own fates more than others (obviously, Miami and Wisconsin winning out - both playing multiple games against highly ranked teams in the process - should guarantee playoff appearances). Wisconsin's had the easiest schedule of anyone in the top ten, and - like Miami - it's hard to place them higher at the moment despite being undefeated (and I fully expect Wisconsin to lose in the Big Ten championship). Virginia Tech's schedule hasn't been much tougher than Wisconsin - unless you exclude their one tough game (Clemson, which they lost) and VT's schedule looks pretty lame. Oklahoma has some solid opponents ahead that will make all this that much clearer. All of these teams seem potentially beatable by the top 6 teams, and could even fall to lesser teams. But ultimately the potential for - and path to - greatness remains.
Not Quite There Tier
These teams aren't top ten material at the moment, in my opinion. I find it extremely doubtful that they'll sniff playoff contention, but anything can happen. Of this group, I would imagine Oklahoma State and Auburn to be the most dangerous. I expect Washington to get at least one more loss before the season ends - and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 2-2. UCF can finish the season undefeated and I doubt they'd be worthy of cracking the top 8 (I'm confident that GT would have whooped them had that game not been cancelled).
Here's the bottom line: Miami is not a playoff team. Not yet anyway. We haven't seen a complete game from them. Special teams aren't very special. Even the BCU game started slow and sloppy on offense. And although the defense is great fun causing turnovers and not averaging too many points, they're still allowing far too many third down conversions and not exactly shutting teams down like some of the teams in the higher tiers. But - undefeated and set to face off against two top 10 teams back to back, with a chance to face a potentially top 5 Clemson at the ACCCG - Miami has firm control of its fate. Win out and I can't see us lower than #2 heading into the playoffs. But even one loss will likely hurt us more than the likes of OSU or Clemson or other ESPN darlings. In other words, I don't see a one loss Miami being favored over a one loss Penn State ceteris paribus. Ultimately, I love this team's heart. They're winning games we've gotten used to them losing. Hopefully things all come together down the stretch as our competition gets serious. I'm hopeful that our 'Canes surprise us and everyone and continue their just win, baby ways, but we haven't seen a game out of our guys that suggests they'd go 3-0 against ND, VT, and Clemson. This is not a prediction either way, simply an analysis of what we've seen thus far.
Of the top 4, TCU goes down against their only real opponent. They should have never been in the top 4 conversation.
Truth be told, we haven't shown that we should be either. Not yet, anyway.
With the BCS - I mean playoff - rankings about to be released I thought I'd share my unsolicited take on where teams fit relative to each other. Wins and losses matter of course, but my approach is to consider how they've performed so far and how they'd fare against each other. So if a one-loss team is in a tier above an undefeated team, the implication is that, based on their performances thus far, the one loss team seems more likely be favored over the undefeated team if they were to face off.
Note: this is not what I think the rankings will be (Wisconsin and TCU will likely be higher, for example). This is how I think it looks like.
Elite Tier
So far these are the only two teams that look to be clear favorites for playoff contention. Fortunately, they will meet at the SEC championship and one team will necessarily lose. That said, so long as it's not a blowout it's doubtful the loser would drop out of the top 4-5. Both are very likely playoff bound, but at least one in the playoffs seems inevitable. That said, Georgia has seemed the most vulnerable. Their game against Auburn will inform us of their elite status, but it certainly seems like UGA has been picking up steam of late.
- 1 Alabama
- 2 Georgia
Sub-Elite Tier
Sub-Elite Tier features teams that could reasonably make an a stand in the playoffs. They're one notch below true elite or have the potential of being elite. Each one of these teams have tough matchups ahead, including conference championships - but Penn State's remaining path is easiest.
- 3 Notre Dame
- 4 Ohio State
- 5 Clemson
- 6 Penn State
Almost There Tier
These teams are pure potential and could easily move up or down a tier with a single win or loss. They haven't proven themselves to truly be in the same conversation as the above teams... yet. Some control their own fates more than others (obviously, Miami and Wisconsin winning out - both playing multiple games against highly ranked teams in the process - should guarantee playoff appearances). Wisconsin's had the easiest schedule of anyone in the top ten, and - like Miami - it's hard to place them higher at the moment despite being undefeated (and I fully expect Wisconsin to lose in the Big Ten championship). Virginia Tech's schedule hasn't been much tougher than Wisconsin - unless you exclude their one tough game (Clemson, which they lost) and VT's schedule looks pretty lame. Oklahoma has some solid opponents ahead that will make all this that much clearer. All of these teams seem potentially beatable by the top 6 teams, and could even fall to lesser teams. But ultimately the potential for - and path to - greatness remains.
- 7 Miami
- 8 Wisconsin
- 9 Oklahoma
- 10 Virginia Tech
Not Quite There Tier
These teams aren't top ten material at the moment, in my opinion. I find it extremely doubtful that they'll sniff playoff contention, but anything can happen. Of this group, I would imagine Oklahoma State and Auburn to be the most dangerous. I expect Washington to get at least one more loss before the season ends - and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 2-2. UCF can finish the season undefeated and I doubt they'd be worthy of cracking the top 8 (I'm confident that GT would have whooped them had that game not been cancelled).
- 11 TCU
- 12 Oklahoma State
- 13 Washington
- 14 UCF
- 15 Auburn
Here's the bottom line: Miami is not a playoff team. Not yet anyway. We haven't seen a complete game from them. Special teams aren't very special. Even the BCU game started slow and sloppy on offense. And although the defense is great fun causing turnovers and not averaging too many points, they're still allowing far too many third down conversions and not exactly shutting teams down like some of the teams in the higher tiers. But - undefeated and set to face off against two top 10 teams back to back, with a chance to face a potentially top 5 Clemson at the ACCCG - Miami has firm control of its fate. Win out and I can't see us lower than #2 heading into the playoffs. But even one loss will likely hurt us more than the likes of OSU or Clemson or other ESPN darlings. In other words, I don't see a one loss Miami being favored over a one loss Penn State ceteris paribus. Ultimately, I love this team's heart. They're winning games we've gotten used to them losing. Hopefully things all come together down the stretch as our competition gets serious. I'm hopeful that our 'Canes surprise us and everyone and continue their just win, baby ways, but we haven't seen a game out of our guys that suggests they'd go 3-0 against ND, VT, and Clemson. This is not a prediction either way, simply an analysis of what we've seen thus far.
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