Ranking our remaining schedule

StevoBevo

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8 conference games left and with how things look we have a Great shot at reaching the ACC championship game (who would’ve thought this was realistic lol) but I decided to look into how our schedule sets up from Easiest to hardest

Tier 3

8. Vs Virginia

7. Vs Georgia Tech

6. @ B.C
- These games we should be winning by 28+ without too much effort, all these teams STRUGGLE on defense, have QB issues, very little depth and commit costly penalties constantly. Minimum we get to 7 wins this year.

Tier 2

5. @ Nc State

4. Vs Louisville

- Nc state has a solid defense, Louisville has a solid offense, both have solid QBs/O-Lines but louisvilles offense has looked subpar at times (against Nc state, 2nd half of Indiana, 1st half of GTech) and Nc state seems to lack something on offense to make them a true threat. Armstrong just hasn’t been it this year. I expect we win both these games by roughly 13-16 Points

Tier 1

3. Vs Clemson

2. @UNC

1. @ FSU

- THESE are the program defining wins, Clemson may not be highly ranked when we play them but they’re similar to A&M where their talent is still off the charts and matches up with us evenly. Their offensive scheme leaves ALOT to be desired and they seem to lack WR playmakers for the most part. It is very possible though that they go 9-3 and lose to the top 3 Teams in the ACC in FSU/Duke/Miami, i don’t believe we need a perfect game but we cannot afford to commit A&M styled mistakes. I see us winning by roughly 7

- UNC to me will only be tougher due to it being a road environment. Maye is great don’t get me wrong but if Kevin Steele can hold him in check last year than I have a feeling Guidry can as well…if it wasn’t for Gattis being an abomination and Jaylan knighton forgetting how to hold onto the football we win that game last year. I’m interested to see how we respond to what will be our first true road test with a real atmosphere. It’s hard to get a full gage on them after seeing how: Minnesota/S.C/App State and Pitt are a combined 9-11… Syracuse will be a good test to measure where they truly are. Until further notice though I must put this as a toss up. But Miami has the best signature win out of the two FWIW

- FSU…undoubtedly will be our toughest test, most likely college game day, 7:30 PM ABC Primetime and I feel that both teams seasons will be on the line going into that one. Seeing FSU struggle in back to back weeks leads me to wonder how dominant they really are, (especially after watching LSU allow 55 to Ole miss), that game will come down to health. We have Kinchens/Mesidor/Citizen/Deen/Arroyo all banged up and I fully expect all of them to be available by the time FSU comes. It just a matter of who does FSU lose and who will we lose between now and then…at full strength this is a DOG FIGHT. Wouldn’t be surprised if FGs are the difference makers…
 
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8 conference games left and with how things look we have a Great shot at reaching the ACC championship game (who would’ve thought this was realistic lol) but I decided to look into how our schedule sets up from Easiest to hardest

Tier 3

8. Vs Virginia

7. Vs Georgia Tech

6. @ B.C
- These games we should be winning by 28+ without too much effort, all these teams STRUGGLE on defense, have QB issues, very little depth and commit costly penalties constantly. Minimum we get to 7 wins this year.

Tier 2

5. @ Nc State

4. Vs Louisville

- Nc state has a solid defense, Louisville has a solid offense, both have solid QBs/O-Lines but louisvilles offense has looked subpar at times (against Nc state, 2nd half of Indiana, 1st half of GTech) and Nc state seems to lack something on offense to make them a true threat. Armstrong just hasn’t been it this year. I expect we win both these games by roughly 13-16 Points

Tier 1

3. Vs Clemson

2. @UNC

1. @ FSU

- THESE are the program defining wins, Clemson may not be highly ranked when we play them but they’re similar to A&M where their talent is still off the charts and matches up with us evenly. Their offensive scheme leaves ALOT to be desired and they seem to lack WR playmakers for the most part. It is very possible though that they go 9-3 and lose to the top 3 Teams in the ACC in FSU/Duke/Miami, i don’t believe we need a perfect game but we cannot afford to commit A&M styled mistakes. I see us winning by roughly 7

- UNC to me will only be tougher due to it being a road environment. Maye is great don’t get me wrong but if Kevin Steele can hold him in check last year than I have a feeling Guidry can as well…if it wasn’t for Gattis being an abomination and Jaylan knighton forgetting how to hold onto the football we win that game last year. I’m interested to see how we respond to what will be our first true road test with a real atmosphere. It’s hard to get a full gage on them after seeing how: Minnesota/S.C/App State and Pitt are a combined 9-11… Syracuse will be a good test to measure where they truly are. Until further notice though I must put this as a toss up. But Miami has the best signature win out of the two FWIW

- FSU…undoubtedly will be our toughest test, most likely college game day, 7:30 PM ABC Primetime and I feel that both teams seasons will be on the line going into that one. Seeing FSU struggle in back to back weeks leads me to wonder how dominant they really are, (especially after watching LSU allow 55 to Ole miss), that game will come down to health. We have Kinchens/Mesidor/Citizen/Deen/Arroyo all banged up and I fully expect all of them to be available by the time FSU comes. It just a matter of who does FSU lose and who will we lose between now and then…at full strength this is a DOG FIGHT. Wouldn’t be surprised if FGs are the difference makers…
Good analysis! To me what's critical is who we play after we play unc, Clemson and FSU! Win or lose those can't let it become 2 loses or a loss after big win!!!
 
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To me there are a few tiers in CFB this year (and none of these are very far from the other) based solely on how everyone has LOOKED thus far

Tier 1:

- Michigan
- Washington
- Oregon
- Texas
- Penn State

*These are the teams that look the strongest, outside of Michigan (who is yet to really play anyone) the rest of these teams have struggled against inferior competition. The common denominator is they all have terrific O-Lines And/Or QB play

Tier 2:

- Georgia
- FSU
- Alabama
- USC
- Ohio State

*these are the teams with elite talent but have not been firing on all cylinders thus far but still playoff capable. But FSU struggled with BC/Clemson, Bama lost to Texas/Struggled against USF, USC has an atrocious defense, Georgia just doesn’t seem to fully hit a second gear on either offense or defense. Ohio state has looked to the best out of this category but to me Kyle McCord is just an okay QB.

Tier 3:

- Notre Dame
- Oregon state
- UNC
- Utah
- Oklahoma
- Missouri
- Texas A&M
- Ole Miss
- Washington state

*you can’t convince me tier 1/2 would be clear favorites over any of these teams. Personally I feel we are closer to tier 2 than tier 4 right now with how we have looked. These teams all have either 1 loss or are undefeated still and I think can realistically beat/give tier 1-2 a true ball game. I feel like In years past that wasn’t the case.

Tier 4:

- LSU
- Louisville
- Kentucky
- Kansas State
- Tennessee
- Duke
- Fresno State
- Tulane

*This is where the drop off is more obvious. These teams I still believe are capable of defeated teams in Tier 3 but would need absolutely perfect games to beat tier 1-2. All have major flaws or major talent deficits to claw into any major national contention.

To be quite honest it feels we have 20 (20!!!!) teams this season that all can defeat eachother head to head. There are no clear front runners.

- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Ohio State
- Miami
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- UNC
- FSU
- Georgia
- Washington
- Washington state
- Oregon
- USC
- Oregon State
- Utah
- Texas A&M
- Ole miss
- Missouri
- Texas
- Penn State

You mix any of these teams on a neutral field and it would be a pure coin toss as to who would come out a winner.
 

This was my attempt.
 
This might be unpopular opinion.
FSU is biggest game but we need to get over this NC hump.
Can we please stop losing to unranked NC teams on yearly bases.
They are not very good, and should be a yearly “W”.
FSU is over rated at 5, but let’s just take care of the teams we should take care of. I want to see us beat the breaks of NC.
 
I think Clemson is tougher than most. Not really worried about unc and think we can beat fsu but that’ll be a tough one too.

If we continue to take care of business we’ll win the other games
 
Beat FSU in Tally, and I'll be happy. That and a reasonable 3 other wins gives an 8-4 season, also possible ACC Championship game and a decent bowl appearance. Of course, I would like to see Canes win out. But, I am a sandbagger from way back.
 
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I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work, but there's a decent chance we could play FSU a second time in the ACCCG no matter which of us wins in the regular season.
Head to head. Then common winning %.
 
Beat FSU in Tally, and I'll be happy. That and a reasonable 3 other wins gives an 8-4 season, also possible ACC Championship game and a decent bowl appearance. Of course, I would like to see Canes win out. But, I am a sandbagger from way back.
Four losses and that possibility goes out the window!
 
Head to head. Then common winning %.
Let's say we beat UNC and FSU but lose to Clemson.

That's all 3 team's only losses.

Who plays in the ACCCG? We own head to head against both of them so we'd be in I'm assuming?

But then who gets in?
 
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Which means Ga tech, VA, NC state VS.BC, wake, VT

UNC LEFT. FSU RIGHT

looks like FSU
 
I still think we lose 3. We look much better but we are paper thin at multiple positions and statistically speaking unlikely to not have injuries but if we don’t holy **** look out

Where do you think we are paper thin?
 
Record, head-to-head, common opponent in that order. That is at least the first 3 tiebreakers.
 
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