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Question for the board... 20 enough?

ISLANDCANES

ISLANDCANES

Buddy & Jimmy @ Greentree
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May 9, 2017
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Wisconsin arguably has the 2nd best Defense we will have faced all year. But I'm giving Miami 7 points just for being at home and in front of a rockin crowd. I think Rosier at home will play better than the last 2 games. That's another 3. And I think our D comes up stout and get's a defense score and plays tough. That's another 7. Say special teams gives us another 3. That's a total of: 20 points. I can't see Miami scoring more than 20 on Wisconsin after scoring only 17 in their last two games. Are 20 points enough to win?
 
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No. If we only score 20 it means Rosier isn't hitting the passes he needs to back Wisconsin off. That means a lot of 3 and outs. Can we win 20-17? Sure. However, I can see us LOSING 20-17 before winning by that score. Rosier just needs to hit what will be there and we will win. If he does, we score more than 20.
 
If Malik can complete ~60% of his passes, we will win. If not, 20 probably doesn't get it done because they'll have the ToP on their side with a very good running game.
 
I think just as important as scoring is sustaining drives. Too many three and outs means our D is on the field getting worn down.
 
Wisconsin first of all hasn't seen this fast of Defense except for OSU. I imagine a deer in headlights scenario at first. Rosier if said before can be healthy and complete 60 pct we roll. If he's the latter season version we still win by 10. Our special teams are due to be big factors to give us a cushion. There run heavy with the occasional pass which I strongly believes favor us to provide time for the O to get there stuff together.
 
I'll be interested to see if the time off/rest appears to help us.

First, the team as a whole hadn't had a break since the storm. Obviously people have different takes on the effect of that stretch...some say it hurt, others think it really shouldn't matter ("these are 18-21 y/o kids, they're fine..."). Seems fair to think that a break might help. The question is, how much?

Wonder if we'll have noticeably more juice.

Also, I'm curious if Rosier looks any sharper. There are rumors that he hurt his arm/shoulder in the UNC game. I have no idea, but I do know he was pretty much terrible since then. Don't get me wrong, he was never some 65%+ passer. But man he got really bad at the end. He was up and down all year, but when he was up, he really threw some nice balls. There was NONE of that for 2-3 games. Might make more sense if he was hurt. If so, I wonder if the rest will show.
 
If we don't score more than 20 pts richt better check himself. I just want to see the team more competitive than the last two games.
 
I fully expect for us to smack Wisconsin. No lie. I feel the same way about this game as I did ND. Wisconsin is slow af.
 
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The defense excells against one dimensional teams. The offense has been hot garbage the last two weeks. Maybe the time off will help. Rosier can't be as bad as he has been the last two weeks of they expect to win.
 
I've gone over it and over it and I've run all the calculations and I've come to the conclusion that Miami can win by scoring only 20 points as long as Wisconsin doesn't score more than 19.
 
If Rosier plays solid, we win. If Rosier is garbage, we lose. It's the same story that it's been all year.
 
Time off is just what our team needed. No other team played 11 weeks straight.
 
Rellyrell said:
I fully expect for us to smack Wisconsin. No lie. I feel the same way about this game as I did ND. Wisconsin is slow af.
Click to expand...

I watched the OSU-Wisconsin game. Their DBs were slooow! Sure it's important for Rosier to simply distribute the ball effectively to the available playmakers (and not turn the ball over) but if we can simply find anyone on our roster that can throw a semi-accurate deep ball all we have to do is dial up streak play after streak play to Jeff Thomas and others as those little Sconsin DBs were trailing OSUs WR by a wide margin in foot races down the sideline (like they were out of the frame how far behind the OSU guy they were). Is there anyone on our roster that can throw deep balls somewhat accurately?
 
Why is everyone expecting a Miami-ND type of crowd? Will most of the fans be Miami fans? Sure, but I don't see it being that big of an advantage. 65% Miami to 35% Wisconsin fans at best. Those cheeseheads are dying for some South Florida weather.
 
PlanoCane said:
Wisconsin first of all hasn't seen this fast of Defense except for OSU. I imagine a deer in headlights scenario at first. Rosier if said before can be healthy and complete 60 pct we roll. If he's the latter season version we still win by 10. Our special teams are due to be big factors to give us a cushion. There run heavy with the occasional pass which I strongly believes favor us to provide time for the O to get there stuff together.
Click to expand...

I think the, "they haven't seen a defense as fast as ours" stuff is played out. That was a thing in the 80's and 90s when Miami was next-level and going up against an Oklahoma or Nebraska who was having crazy success with the option or wishbone. Plus, the Big Ten is no longer that, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust conference it once was. All these programs have some speed now—albeit in this case, not comparable to Miami.

A lot of talk about team speed before facing Ohio State in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl—and then Miami was whipped in the trenches all night. Wisconsin hasn't seen a defense as fast as Miami's—but the Canes haven't seen too many lines like the Badgers. UM's o-line could be in for a long night; especially if Homer can't effectively run.

Long and short; Richt and Chryst both have a month to tailor their game plans for the other. Both are sharp guys and will have their guys ready. Just a matter of execution.
 
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Im expecting every single trick play imaginable from Wisconsin.


* Reverse pass
* Halfback pass
* Fake punt
* Fake field goal
* Unexpected onside kick.


And I expect their offense to run a lot more misdirection run plays than they ran in the regular season.
 
SFbayCane said:
Im expecting every single trick play imaginable from Wisconsin.


* Reverse pass
* Halfback pass
* Fake punt
* Fake field goal
* Unexpected onside kick.


And I expect their offense to run a lot more misdirection run plays than they ran in the regular season.
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Deejay Dallas tebow jump pass on the goal line? Guaranteed touchdown.
 
ddann said:
I've gone over it and over it and I've run all the calculations and I've come to the conclusion that Miami can win by scoring only 20 points as long as Wisconsin doesn't score more than 19.
Click to expand...

I can confirm your calculations. Excellent work!
 
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