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Quarterback Offer Breakdown: Tyler Van Dyke

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High school stats are irrelevant.
College coaches don't look at them.

There's way too many things that can contribute to poor or good stats.

I was on a staff where we had a D2 level QB throw for 3500 yards. Why? Cause he was throwing to a future SEC starting WR. Kid turned 10 yard throws into 50 yard touchdowns.

On the opposite side of that, (one year) we had an SEC level QB who threw for modest numbers because nobody in his WR core could run a route without tripping over their own feet. (I'm exaggerating, but they weren't college level WR's)

A high school QB can getaway with simply chucking the ball up and racking stats if his WR's are good enough. I see it all the time.
 
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gcane44 said:
@Roman Marciante I'd like to know your thoughts on accounting for a HS QB's stats when evaluating. I know there are a million factors that can explain away some subpar stats, but at the end of the day, I want to see a QB who produces. Stats by itself won't sell me, obviously, but it's a nice added element to give me a little more confidence in a player.

The stats I can find for Van Dyke may be incomplete (just 9 games):

1282241899 yards.57114.8 ypa211.0 ypg14 TD5 INT

With that said, I'll take Van Dyke over Tee Webb (who has better raw counting stats)
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I never make it a habit to look at three things prior to me watching a kid.

1. Stats. It's the last thing I do. I look at max preps to simply add the metrics for the piece. (So it really doesn't get that big of a factor)

2. Stars. More of a personal thing to see how close my evaluation is to the experts after I'm done.

3. Another breakdown of that qb. I just don't want any influence.
 
You also need to look into what style offense his team runs. A lot of kids today have impressive completion percentages because they rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. A kid in an air raid type system throwing 35 5 yard passes a game better be over 65%. I kid who's asked to throw the ball downfield more often will likely have a lower percentage. Just looking at this kid's numbers, his YPA is freakish which means he completes a lot of passes for big gains.
 
Artur Sitkowski put up God awful numbers in High School & he was even worse in College.

Trevor Lawerence put up great numbers in HS & he's great in college.

Same for Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm, JT Daniels, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota & countless others. In fact, just about every great college QB in the last decade or so was also good in HS.

HS Stats aren't the be all end all, but they are an indicator as to what kind of player you have especially at QB. I can't think of a good/great QB in recent memory who was bad & put up bad numbers in High School but then went on to being good/great in college.

Every QB that puts up good numbers in HS aren't going to be good in college, but it's even less rare that QB's who suck in HS go on to be better in college.
 
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ThomasM said:
Sitkowski says hello.
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81950


No_Fly_Zone said:
On a Sikowski-related note, I have to imagine schools like IMG/BG/STA/St. John Bosco/Mater Dei/Bergen do a better job of keeping accurate stats and submitting them to Maxpreps than most other schools in America, and certainly better than schools like Green River, Wyoming. In Sikowski's case, the stats were horrible and there was reason to believe they were at least somewhat accurate.
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gcane44 said:
Sits’ abysmal stats that raised concern were from his junior year in NJ.

Apparently he wasn’t even the starter at IMG senior year
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He did start at IMG for the first 7 games, he only threw for 370yds with 2TD's & 4INT's at 57%cmp.

He got benched for Zack Annexstad (Minnesota QB) because Sitkow was just terrible altogether.
 
In the case of Sitkowski, his numbers were just plain bad.

This kid has somewhat modest numbers but I wouldn't say they are bad. He plays in an old school NFL type of offense where he doesn't throw it a ton and when he does, he's asked to throw the ball down field. I'm sure you could probably find a hundred kids with better numbers than him who won't even get a sniff from a p5 program.
 
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DTP said:
In the case of Sitkowski, his numbers were just plain bad.

This kid has somewhat modest numbers but I wouldn't say they are bad. He plays in an old school NFL type of offense where he doesn't throw it a ton and when he does, he's asked to throw the ball down field. I'm sure you could probably find a hundred kids with better numbers than him who won't even get a sniff from a p5 program.
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Don't think his numbers are bad at all. Just not high volume. I just wanted to get Roman's take on stats in evaluation in general.

I like Van Dyke a lot as a prospect. Right now I'm slightly favoring Haynes King and Evan Prater, but I think all 3 are high quality QB prospects.
 
Liberty City El said:
He did start at IMG for the first 7 games, he only threw for 370yds with 2TD's & 4INT's at 57%cmp.

He got benched for Zack Annexstad (Minnesota QB) because Sitkow was just terrible altogether.
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Yup. As I recall, his coaches tried their best to keep the benching under wraps for a few weeks by claiming some sort of minor injury was keeping him out. In the case of Sitkowski, his actual game film only looked decent when he had a perfectly clean pocket. He also impressed people at camps because of his big arm and prototype size. But when the lights went on and he wasn't wearing a red jersey, most people were underwhelmed.
 
gcane44 said:
Don't think his numbers are bad at all. Just not high volume. I just wanted to get Roman's take on stats in evaluation in general.

I like Van Dyke a lot as a prospect. Right now I'm slightly favoring Haynes King and Evan Prater, but I think all 3 are high quality QB prospects.
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In the modern game passing numbers, even at the highschool level are so inflated thanks to pass heavy systems. A lot of people might look at Van Dyke's numbers and say "Eh, less than 2000 yards, 58% completions, 14 TDs. No thanks". Just looking at the numbers, they're solid but completely pedestrian compared to a lot of other guys. You watch the tape and you see a lot of impressive stuff. You certainly can't teach the size or the arm. He might not be a "can't miss" type of guy but he's certainly a worthy prospect.
 
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Roman Marciante said:
I think he has the ability to extend plays. He's a pass first kid who had some really nice plays on the roll and outside the context of the play.

I just don't see defensive coordinators keeping a defensive end at home if they run the qb zone read. Which is fine, the kid definitely can make up with it with his arm.
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Coach Macho said:
High school stats are irrelevant.
College coaches don't look at them.

There's way too many things that can contribute to poor or good stats.

I was on a staff where we had a D2 level QB throw for 3500 yards. Why? Cause he was throwing to a future SEC starting WR. Kid turned 10 yard throws into 50 yard touchdowns.

On the opposite side of that, (one year) we had an SEC level QB who threw for modest numbers because nobody in his WR core could run a route without tripping over their own feet. (I'm exaggerating, but they weren't college level WR's)

A high school QB can getaway with simply chucking the ball up and racking stats if his WR's are good enough. I see it all the time.
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This is all true.

Stats can lie. Tape never does.
 
RedSquare said:
This is all true.

Stats can lie. Tape never does.
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And let me add, stats are only as good and accurate as the person recording them........ I would imagine schools like IMG have some type of assistant recording stats. Your average high school probably has student volunteers or JV kids who help out on the side lines and record the stats. Hopefully the coach reviews them for completeness and accuracy but speaking from experience, there is no guarantee
 
Roman Marciante said:
I think he has the ability to extend plays. He's a pass first kid who had some really nice plays on the roll and outside the context of the play.

I just don't see defensive coordinators keeping a defensive end at home if they run the qb zone read. Which is fine, the kid definitely can make up with it with his arm.
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Don’t see much under center any more and neither do defenses. That could be very advantageous. We always ran very well from under center. Great wprite up, especially the commentary for the video examples.
 
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Kid has a live arm and wasn’t asked to chunk it all over the field in his HS tape. He threw more down field passes than the majority of air raid style offenses, who tend to have higher completion percentages, which they should given the distance they’re throwing the football. I like this cat a lot, hopefully we keep on him and get him down for an OV soon.
 
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