QBs with the most to prove (TVD)

[DTP]

Random TVD/offense thoughts.

Which is more likely. TVD's 2021 season was a fluke, or a bad OC hampered his ability?

Gattis' passing offense always looked clunky forced but outside the MTSU game, TVD didn't really play all that bad. His numbers in the 6 non-MTSU starts (Duke was only about a quarter) were: 66% completions. 1511 yards, 9:3 TD/INT. He looked uncomfortable and had a lot of trouble going through progressions but it's not like he totally fell off a cliff as a passer. He looked really good for stretches when they actually let him throw it.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Put the pieces together.

Big offensive line, no QB depth (meaning Cristobal will need to make sure TVD isn't taking unnecessary hits), strong RB backfield, question marks at WR, and thin at DT. That tells me Cristobal is likely going to go with a low scoring, run heavy offense that chews up clock. We won't be able stop other teams from running so the best counter is to keep the opponents from touching the ball. This is just how the team is built. And honestly, I think this is the best strategy given the roster. It will be boring and painful to watch again, but this time UM will have more success with TOP and red zone opportunities due to the better OL.

Unfortunately, even though I think Cristobal can get 8 wins out of the team, the offense will be so uninspiring that we aren't going to find any top WRs and QBs that will be interested in UM.

"Thin at DT = won't be able to stop the run" is a **** of a leap to make. There are a lot of ways for a defense to be disruptive. It's the reason the school signs Guidry's checks.

I'd also argue we're not entirely thin at DT....I don't think there are a ton of teams who can trot out bodies like Taylor, Deen, Harrison-Hunte, Moten, Mesidor, and Gore. But let's just assume you're right and say we're thin there.....saying that and attributing it to being unable to stop the run to the tune of the entire pace of the team being impacted is reckless as ****.

 

[DTP]

"Thin at DT = won't be able to stop the run" is a **** of a leap to make. There are a lot of ways for a defense to be disruptive. It's the reason the school signs Guidry's checks.

I'd also argue we're not entirely thin at DT....I don't think there are a ton of teams who can trot out bodies like Taylor, Deen, Harrison-Hunte, Moten, Mesidor, and Gore. But let's just assume you're right and say we're thin there.....saying that and attributing it to being unable to stop the run to the tune of the entire pace of the team being impacted is reckless as ****.

Don't you know you don't have Georgia's defensive front, you can't stop the run?

James Madison finished 2nd in the nation in run defense.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

There are a lot of ways for a defense to be disruptive.

Is that you, Manny Diaz? What's the "havoc rate“ for Guidrys D?

Whether we are good or not at DT is a matter of opinion, I personally think the DL will get pushed around again but I can understand people arguing otherwise.

What is less debatable is what we have on the offensive side. The strength, due to OL and RB, is going to be the ground game. Dawsons scheme will help keep the chains moving on 3rd downs, but I don't believe we are going to see an explosive offense.

As for TVD, I agree with the posters who say TVD will be better than last year but he isn't going to reach the heights we thought he would after the 2021 season. So add it all up and I think we see a more efficient offense, but it's not going to be anywhere near the top 35 in PPG.

 

[Angry Ibis]

I'm still very concerned that he has nobody to throw the ball to but I do think the improvement up front, the scheme, and the fact that he was SEVERELY humbled last year is going to result in far superior QB play.

I just hope someone steps up in the WR room.

I shared similar concerns, including whether / how he has responded to what I agree should have been a severe humbling, but question what the results will be. Both he and the WR are question marks until proven otherwise - and frankly that’s on game day… greentree kool aid just ain’t refreshing some of us this summer…

 

[Home Slice]

Random TVD/offense thoughts.

Which is more likely. TVD's 2021 season was a fluke, or a bad OC hampered his ability?
The OL is definitely better this year and has a little depth..
We have a dozen receivers and several of them are new. Several should do better without an anchor like Gattis around their necks.
We have a new OC not named Gattis.
With a decent OL and several good RB's, we're a genuine run threat, which helps the receivers.

It wouldn't surprise me if we have a very good season, but I don't think anyone can say for certain how it will go because so many variables have changed.

Well said

 

[Brains]

QB with most to prove.
HC with most to prove.
DC with most to prove.
S&C with most to prove.

Football program with most to prove.

 

[AlexCane]

I'm still very concerned that he has nobody to throw the ball to but I do think the improvement up front, the scheme, and the fact that he was SEVERELY humbled last year is going to result in far superior QB play.

I just hope someone steps up in the WR room.

I think Colbie Young is going to catch 45+. In that short window last year before TVD got hurt, Colbie looked like the real deal. He fell off when Brown took over and there was no passing game. But I think there's a connection between those two. And I've seen Colbie around and he looks like he's in great shape. A little leaner. I wondered last year whether Colbie's spurt was a flash in the pan, but I think he's going to prove it wasn't.

Add in a vastly improved offensive line that should give TVD time + the stability that X brings and I think we're gonna be ok.

 

[mcnaire2004]

Let me guess: The article talks about his 2021 stats. Perhaps mentioning his last 3-6 games that year with some mention to Joe Burrow. Maybe talking about his top 10 draft prediction going into 2022. Something about Gattis offense scheme and injuries. Then maybe a hope for optimism with a new "air raid" oc and a retooled offensive line.

 

[01Canes]

I'm less worried than others about the receiver position because I know the system and a good QB can make decent receivers look like stars. Washington is a great example. They made a coaching change after the 2021 season and brought in Michael Penix jr. to play QB in their new, wide open system. Their two leading receivers went from a combined 80 catches for 885 yards and 7 TDs to 154 catches for 2243 yards (both went over 1,000) and 16 TDs. These guys weren't superstars until they played in a pass friendly offense with a quarterback who could sling it. Statistically, their 2021 offense was even worse than Miami's 2022 offense.

I get what you’re saying here and your overall point is pretty valid, but UW’s receivers aren’t just decent players who broke out because Penix and Ryan Grubb arrived.

Penix never came close during his time at Indiana to having a season like he did last year at UW, and I’d argue that the gigantic improvement in WR talent was as big a reason as any for his 2022 season. Penix nearly tripled his previous single season best in passing yards and more than doubled his previous single season best in touchdowns last year.

Penix in 2020 at IU - 56% completions, 1,645 passing yards, 14 TD's, 4 INT's
Penix in 2021 at IU - 53.7% completions, 939 passing yards, 4 TD's, 7 INT's
Penix in 2022 with McMillan and Odunze at UW - 65.3% completions, 4,641 passing yards, 31 TD's, 8 INT's

Both Jalen McMillan (a high 4* and top 75 overall recruit in 2020) and Rome Odunze (a rock solid 4* and top 150 overall recruit by 247 in 2020) were blue-chip recruits who broke out in their 3rd year and both look like NFL prototype early-round talents. The arrival of Penix at QB and Grubb at OC obviously helped their production explode, but they’re both studs in their own right as well.

We have not been recruiting outside receivers the caliber of McMillan or Odunze in many years. But I certainly agree with your general point that the right system and a good QB can make decent receivers look like stars at the college level. Rambo and Harley are a great example from just a couple seasons ago.

 

[DTP]

I get what you’re saying here and your overall point is pretty valid, but UW’s receivers aren’t just decent players who broke out because Penix arrived.

Both Jalen McMillan (a high 4* and top 75 overall recruit in 2020) and Rome Odunze (a rock solid 4* and top 150 overall recruit by 247 in 2020) were blue-chip recruits who broke out in their 3rd year and both look like NFL prototype early-round talents.

We have not been recruiting outside receivers the caliber of McMillan or Odunze in many years. But I certainly agree with your general point that the right system and a good QB can make decent receivers look like stars at the college level. Rambo and Harley are a great example from just a couple seasons ago.

My point being that regardless of high school rankings, McMillan and Odunze were very much nondescript, average players for their first two seasons who exploded once paired with good quarterback and a system that worked for them instead of against them. We do have a receiver room full of former 4 star recruits too. Although our likely top two guys are a Juco transfer and a 3 star kid from Deerfield.

 

[LuCane]

I'm less worried than others about the receiver position because I know the system and a good QB can make decent receivers look like stars. Washington is a great example. They made a coaching change after the 2021 season and brought in Michael Penix jr. to play QB in their new, wide open system. Their two leading receivers went from a combined 80 catches for 885 yards and 7 TDs to 154 catches for 2243 yards (both went over 1,000) and 16 TDs. These guys weren't superstars until they played in a pass friendly offense with a quarterback who could sling it. Statistically, their 2021 offense was even worse than Miami's 2022 offense.

Out of morbid curiosity, I checked the numbers:

Washington in '21: 2.7TDs/game (84th)
Miami in '22: 1.9TDs/game (117th)

Washington in '21: 5.0 yards/play (98th)
Miami in '22: 4.8 yards/play (104th)

Washington in '21: 45% 3rd down conversion (14th)
Miami in '22: 37% 3rd down conversion (77th)

Washington in '21: .347 points/play (85th)
Miami in '22: .267 points/play (117th)

Anyway, there are a few more.

Last year's offensive crew takes complete offense to your claim that someone was worse than they were.

I still feel people haven't come to full terms with just how bad we were and looked on offense last year.

 

[DTP]

Out of morbid curiosity, I checked the numbers:

Washington in '21: 2.7TDs/game (84th)
Miami in '22: 1.9TDs/game (117th)

Washington in '21: 5.0 yards/play (98th)
Miami in '22: 4.8 yards/play (104th)

Washington in '21: 45% 3rd down conversion (14th)
Miami in '22: 37% 3rd down conversion (77th)

Washington in '21: .347 points/play (85th)
Miami in '22: .267 points/play (117th)

Anyway, there are a few more.

Last year's offensive crew takes complete offense to your claim that someone was worse than they were.

I still feel people haven't come to full terms with just how bad we were and looked on offense last year.

If we can get 3/4 of what Washington was able to get out of their offense last year, we’ll win 10 games.

 

[Headhunter]

Just Win Baby

 

[Bender]

I'm gonna go and post some tidbits about an article that was released yesterday by Navarro where he interviewed TVD in part:

- TVD got anxious because we didn't have an OC. Thats why the whole Alabama thing crept up.

- Mario wanted TVD to meet the interviews OCs, which TVD refused to do, because he didn't want to have a strong opinion on one guy he met whilst not meeting the others. However, he told Mario he liked Dawson's offense at Houston.

- Says Dawson is a very relaxed guy.

- Van Dyke will get the freedom to change plays and routes at the LoS. He'll have a wristband with plays on it, there will be more huddles and quicker signaling from the sideline. Apparently, we were an open book on that and had tons of stolen signals.

- He says he is healthy, feels 100% and good to go. Has worked on his accuracy and tweaked his mechanics because of his high-low issues with throws. Also states that the team has more depth compared to the previous year.

- Offseason has been very player-led. Weekly meetups and organized activities are a thing. There's more self-accountability.

- TVD states that a bunch of players were complaining and blamed others all the time. There was a lot of negativity and players would get down quickly after trailing. The right people have left and Mario brought good people in.

 

[E1k]

My point being that regardless of high school rankings, McMillan and Odunze were very much nondescript, average players for their first two seasons who exploded once paired with good quarterback and a system that worked for them instead of against them. We do have a receiver room full of former 4 star recruits too. Although our likely top two guys are a Juco transfer and a 3 star kid from Deerfield.

I think UW problem at wr before last year was scheme, our problem is talent because the years u consider average for them would be career years for our guys lo, totally different situation . Gattis was terrible but people said when he got here he quickly noticed the lack of talent at receiver, i have heard people say mario said the same too.

Look at the actions of the coaches, we have taken 2 juco receivers and a transfer that has been hurt most of his career and we have looked and went after a bunch of names that entered the portal from every level. Thats them being desperate to upgrade the talent in that room, everything at this point is just us hoping for something but right now the reality seems like it ain’t there currently

 

[Negro-Wan Kanobi]

Tbh....Yup

Random TVD/offense thoughts.

Which is more likely. TVD's 2021 season was a fluke, or a bad OC hampered his ability?
The OL is definitely better this year and has a little depth..
We have a dozen receivers and several of them are new. Several should do better without an anchor like Gattis around their necks.
We have a new OC not named Gattis.
With a decent OL and several good RB's, we're a genuine run threat, which helps the receivers.

It wouldn't surprise me if we have a very good season, but I don't think anyone can say for certain how it will go because so many variables have changed.

This, my guy. This season rests in the hands of TVD.

 

[DTP]

the years u consider average for them would be career years for

Those were career years for those guys too up until that point. Remember we don’t have a receiver who’s started more than seven games in a season for us. Unproven =\= bad. It just means they haven’t played a ton. Whether it’s injuries or the fact that they just haven’t been at Miami very long.

I’m not expecting multiple 1,000 yard receivers. Two guys with 50+ catches for 700+ yards isn’t it just attainable, it should be pretty easy.

It’s not just Washington. Look at the teams that were all near the top of the NCAA passing offense leaders. Outside of USC and Tennessee, it’s a bunch of G5 teams and mid P5 programs. You can’t tell me that Georgia Southern, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest and Mississippi State have some kind of dominant receiver room.

 

[E1k]

Those were career years for those guys too up until that point. Remember we don’t have a receiver who’s started more than seven games in a season for us. Unproven =\= bad. It just means they haven’t played a ton. Whether it’s injuries or the fact that they just haven’t been at Miami very long.

I’m not expecting multiple 1,000 yard receivers. Two guys with 50+ catches for 700+ yards isn’t it just attainable, it should be pretty easy.

It’s not just Washington. Look at the teams that were all near the top of the NCAA passing offense leaders. Outside of USC and Tennessee, it’s a bunch of G5 teams and mid P5 programs. You can’t tell me that Georgia Southern, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest and Mississippi State have some kind of dominant receiver room.

If they are good enough why would we be taking 2 Juco receivers? Just look at the actions of the people who have seen them more than anyone else.

Also 50 plus catches and 700 plus yards isn’t just gonna come easy man lol idk why u assume its a given just because we have a new oc, he’s not creating new players. His offense requires u to have a guy or two.

And if we have to scoop down to G5 teams who play other G5 teams to compare them what does that really say. Also AT perry was at wake and he is way better than anything we have so is corley at wku, i think u are just assuming based on school name that those teams wont have better talent at wr but dude look at where we had to go when in need of upgrades the last 2 years

 

[DTP]

If they are good enough why would we be taking 2 Juco receivers? Just look at the actions of the people who have seen them more than anyone else.

Also 50 plus catches and 700 plus yards isn’t just gonna come easy man lol idk why u assume its a given just because we have a new oc, he’s not creating new players. His offense requires u to have a guy or two.

And if we have to scoop down to G5 teams who play other G5 teams to compare them what does that really say. Also AT perry was at wake and he is way better than anything we have so is corley at wku, i think u are just assuming based on school name that those teams wont have better talent at wr but dude look at where we had to go when in need of upgrades the last 2 years

They took another Juco receiver besides Kirk? Regardless, they took transfers at almost every position this off season. Including running back. Are we bereft of talent there too?

You're comparing the numbers of guys who are playing in a pass happy system to guys who played under Gattis here and saying they're better because they had better numbers. Of course they had better numbers. They played in wide receiver friendly systems where they got targeted 10 times a game. Once again, these teams don't have a ton of superstar receivers. The receivers at Mississippi State aren't better than the group at Miami, they played in the Air Raid and thus put up big numbers. We've gone over this multiple times. You can go back years and find dozens if not hundreds of receivers who played in pass heavy offenses who put up big numbers and never played a down in the NFL. The system can make average players look good. That was literally the WHOLE reason why Hal Mumme and Mike Leach developed it. It was so they could be competitive offensively without having NFL talent.