QBs HS rankings and college ratings.

[motorcitycane]

Seems like it’s the toughest position next to DT and OL to evaluate how guys will translate their game to college football.

I was looking back at QB rankings and the bust rate for all schools is alarmingly high. But one thing that’s common every single year is that some unheralded underrated kid winds up being a top passer in CFB.

Let’s look at the top QBs in college football QB ratings since 2010. I’m using QB ratings from sports reference. And their HS Overall rankings from 247 composite.

2010 QBs (ranked by passer rating)
1. Kellen Moore - Boise State (3 star, #1048 overall)
2. Cam Newton - Auburn ( 5 Star, #26 overall)
3. Andrew Luck - Stanford (4 star, #42 overall)
4. Greg McElroy - Alabama (3 star, #348 overall)
5. Andy Dalton - TCU (3 star, #707 overall)
6. Scott Tolzien - Wisconsin (3 star, #1119 overall)
7. Ryan Mallet - Arkansas (5 star, #5 overall)
8. Bryant Moniz - Hawaii (2 star, n/a)
9. Dan Persa - NorthWestern (3 star, #638 overall)
10. Terrell Pryor - Ohio State (5 star, #2 overall)

9/10 QBs won 10+ games.

4/10 passers were top 100 overall recruits in their respective classes.

2011. (Ranked by passer rating)
1. Russell Wilson - Wisconsin (3 star, #1102 overall)
2. RG3 - Baylor (4 star, #293 overall)
3. Kellen Moore - Boise State (3 star, #1048 overall)
4. Case Keenum - Houston (2 star, #1818 overall)
5. Andrew Luck - Stanford (4 star, #42 overall)
6. Terrance Owens - Toledo (2 star, #1795 overall)
7. Keith Price - Washington (NR)
8. Matt Barkley - USC (5 star, #1 overall)
9. Brandon Weeden - OKST (NR)
10. Bryn Renner - UNC (4 star, #76 overall)

2011 group 3/10 were top 100 overall players.

7/10 won at least 10 games during the 2011 season.

2012 (Ranked by passer rating)
1. AJ McCarron - Alabama (4 star, #87 overall)
2. Aaron Murray - UGA (5 star, #19 overall)
3. David Fales - SJSU (3 star, #1291 overall)
4. Tahj Boyd - Clemson (5 star, #31 overall)
5. Geno Smith - West Virginia (4 star, #100 overall)
6. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
7. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville (4 star, #98 overall)
8. Taylor Kelly - Arizona State ( 3 star, #1872 overall)
9. Connor Shaw - South Carolina (3 star, #396)
10. Brett Smith - Wyoming (2 star, #2249 overall)

2012 group. 5/10 were top 100 overall recruits.

2012 7/10 QBs won at least 10 games.

2013 (QBs by passer rating)
1. Jameis Winston - Florida State (5 star, #16 OVR)
2. Bryce Petty - Baylor (3 star, #1086 overall)
3. Johnny Manziel - TAMU (3 star, #374 overall)
4. Zach Mettenburger - LSU (4 star, #122 overall)
5. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville (4 star, #98 overall)
6. Tajh Boyd - Clemson (5 star, #31 overall)
7. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
8. AJ McCarron - Alabama (4 star, #87 overall)
9. Blake Bortles - UCF (3 star, #814 overall)
10. Connor Shaw - South Carolina (3 star, #396)

4/10 were top 100 overall players
9/10 won 10 games or more in 2013.

Interesting that many people clown on Connor Shaw but looking back all he did was produce. We’d have killed to have that kid as Miami’s QB in 2018.

2014 (QBs by QB rating)
1. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
2. JT Barrett - Ohio State (4 star, #135 overall)
3. Brandon Doughty - WKU (3 star, #1133 overall)
4. Cody Kessler - USC (4 star, #145 overall)
5. Garrett Grayson - CSU (3 star, #952 overall)
6. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927 Overall)
7. Blake Sims - Alabama (4 star, #304 Overall)
8. Bryce Petty - Baylor (3 star, #1086 overall)
9. Grant Hedrick - Boise State (3 star, #1257)
10. Hutson Mason - UGA (3 star, #664)

0/10 in top 100 overall players in their class.

6/10 won at least 10+ games that year.

2015 (QBs by QB rating)
1. Vernon Adams - Oregon (NR)
2. Brandon Doughty - WKU (3 star, #1133 overall)
3. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
4. Kevin Hogan - Stanford (3 star, #356)
5. Brandon Allen - Arkansas (3 star, #354)
6. Matt Johnson - Bowling Green (2 star, #1779)
7. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927)
8. Trevone Boykin - TCU (3 star, #734)
9. Jared Goff - Cal (4 star, #213)
10. Taylor Lamb - App. State (2 star, #2188)

2015 0/10 top 100 overall prospects in their class

2015 6/10 QBs won at least 10 games

2016 QBs by QB rating
1. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
2. Logan Woodside - Toledo (3 star, #1705)
3. Mike White - WKU (3 star, #1273)
4. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927)
5. Nick Stevens - CSU (3 star, #1084)
6. Ryan Higgins - Louisiana Tech (3 star, #1577)
7. Jake Browning - Washington (4 star, #73)
8. Nathan Peterman - Pitt (4 star, #369)
9. Sam Darnold - USC (4 star, #148)
10. Mason Rudolph - OKST (4 star, #269)

1/10 top 100 overall prospects
6/10 won 10+ games.


2017 (QBs by rating)
1. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
2. McKenzie Milton - UCF (3 star, #1161)
3. Mason Rudolph - OKST (4 star, #269)
4. Drew Lock - Mizzou (4 star, #98)
5. Will Grier - WVU (4 star, #48 overall)
6. Logan Woodside - Toledo (3 star, #1705)
7. Riley Ferguson - Memphis (NR, 3 star JUCO)
8. Jake Fromm - UGA (4 star, #44 overall)
9. JT Barrett - OSU (4 star, #135 overall)
10. John Wolford - Wake Forest (3 star, #937)

2/10 top 100 overall players
7/10 won 10+ games.

2018 (QBs by rating)
1. Tua Tagovailoa - Alabama (5 star, #32)
2. Kyler Murray - Oklahoma (5 star, #34)
3. Will Grier - WVU (4 star, #48 overall)
4. Dwayne Haskins - OSU (4 star, #91)
5. Jake Fromm - UGA (4 star, #44 overall)
6. Brock Purdy - ISU (3 star, #839)
7. D’Eriq King - Houston (3 star, #396)
8. Ross Comis - UMASS (2 star, #3171)
9. McKenzie Milton - UCF (3 star, #1161)
10. Jordan Love - Utah State (3 star, #1645)

5/10 in top 100 of their recruiting classes

6/10 won 10+ games.

Overall this isn’t a thread to go start recruiting two and 3 star QBs. But more of how do those guys get overlooked so much!?

Especially the low 3 star and two star guys. Like was their film THAT terrible from HS? Lack of camps or what?

As we know good QB is a large part behind wins and this evidence suggest that as well. Literally if your QB is a top 10 in QBR odds are 60 percent or higher that your squad won 10 games.

I never looked at them side by side like that until today. So this isn’t groundbreaking or anything but something of note I wanted to share with the board.

 

[blackvern]

It's the system for those 3 star Qb's the majortiy of the time

 

[Shaudluc]

College success doesn’t automatically transfer to pro success. And the same thing for high school to college. U have to be in the right system that is gonna maximize your skill set. For example A 5 star pocket passer will not work with chip kelly system. He like running QB

 

[motorcitycane]

It's the system for those 3 star Qb's the majortiy of the time

I can agree with that for sure. Though I think the two Boise Kids were actually great QBs on the college level.

 

[jjacks93]

Gotta consider competition as well

 

[omaha]

I did not know there was such a large discrepancy between 3 star players. Could be a 3 star at #301 or 1301.

 

[motorcitycane]

I did not know there was such a large discrepancy between 3 star players. Could be a 3 star at #301 or 1301.

Same thing I noticed. Those #300-600 kids are like high 3 stars to me. The 600-1500 kids are probably more of the “low 3 stars”

There’s probably some arguments to made for kids outside of the “top 247” and “espn 300” as far a talent goes but everyone can’t be a 4 star.

If you looked at the top 10 QBs the last 10 years the amount of busts is a lot higher than WR/RB.

Definitely shows us that QB evaluations are one of the hardest things to evaluate. QBs, OL, DT seem to be the most difficult to project.

 

[DTP]

A lot of these smaller school recruits play in pass happy systems in conferences that aren't really known for defense. That's why it's tough to look strictly at stats and make a conclusion without considering offensive system and level of competition. Would some of the lower rated guys have put up those numbers in a tougher conference against better defenses? Probably not. Although the point that some truly great QBs can slip through the cracks is certainly noted. I think after seeing two years of Toledo, any Canes fan would have gladly traded Malik Rosier or N'Kosi Perry for Logan Woodside last season.

Another good point mentioned is the huge volume of players considered "3 star". A guy rated towards the top of the 3 star spectrum could very much end up being a starter at any powerhouse program. Whereas guys near the bottom are usually left for the G5 schools. To me, the gap between top 3 star and bottom 3 star is much wider than the gap between 5 star and 4 star. **** it may even be wider than the gap between a 5 star guy and an upper level 3 star guy.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Seems like? It's an undeniable fact. QB and OL. Been saying this for over a decade. Those 2 are BY FAR the hardest positions to project from one level to the next. That includes HS to college and college to the NFL.

 

[DuvalCanegang]

wasnt Rosier a 2 Star? Dammit we got the wrong one!

 

[2.0]

Seems like it’s the toughest position next to DT and OL to evaluate how guys will translate their game to college football.

I was looking back at QB rankings and the bust rate for all schools is alarmingly high. But one thing that’s common every single year is that some unheralded underrated kid winds up being a top passer in CFB.

Let’s look at the top QBs in college football QB ratings since 2010. I’m using QB ratings from sports reference. And their HS Overall rankings from 247 composite.

2010 QBs (ranked by passer rating)
1. Kellen Moore - Boise State (3 star, #1048 overall)
2. Cam Newton - Auburn ( 5 Star, #26 overall)
3. Andrew Luck - Stanford (4 star, #42 overall)
4. Greg McElroy - Alabama (3 star, #348 overall)
5. Andy Dalton - TCU (3 star, #707 overall)
6. Scott Tolzien - Wisconsin (3 star, #1119 overall)
7. Ryan Mallet - Arkansas (5 star, #5 overall)
8. Bryant Moniz - Hawaii (2 star, n/a)
9. Dan Persa - NorthWestern (3 star, #638 overall)
10. Terrell Pryor - Ohio State (5 star, #2 overall)

9/10 QBs won 10+ games.

4/10 passers were top 100 overall recruits in their respective classes.

2011. (Ranked by passer rating)
1. Russell Wilson - Wisconsin (3 star, #1102 overall)
2. RG3 - Baylor (4 star, #293 overall)
3. Kellen Moore - Boise State (3 star, #1048 overall)
4. Case Keenum - Houston (2 star, #1818 overall)
5. Andrew Luck - Stanford (4 star, #42 overall)
6. Terrance Owens - Toledo (2 star, #1795 overall)
7. Keith Price - Washington (NR)
8. Matt Barkley - USC (5 star, #1 overall)
9. Brandon Weeden - OKST (NR)
10. Bryn Renner - UNC (4 star, #76 overall)

2011 group 3/10 were top 100 overall players.

7/10 won at least 10 games during the 2011 season.

2012 (Ranked by passer rating)
1. AJ McCarron - Alabama (4 star, #87 overall)
2. Aaron Murray - UGA (5 star, #19 overall)
3. David Fales - SJSU (3 star, #1291 overall)
4. Tahj Boyd - Clemson (5 star, #31 overall)
5. Geno Smith - West Virginia (4 star, #100 overall)
6. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
7. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville (4 star, #98 overall)
8. Taylor Kelly - Arizona State ( 3 star, #1872 overall)
9. Connor Shaw - South Carolina (3 star, #396)
10. Brett Smith - Wyoming (2 star, #2249 overall)

2012 group. 5/10 were top 100 overall recruits.

2012 7/10 QBs won at least 10 games.

2013 (QBs by passer rating)
1. Jameis Winston - Florida State (5 star, #16 OVR)
2. Bryce Petty - Baylor (3 star, #1086 overall)
3. Johnny Manziel - TAMU (3 star, #374 overall)
4. Zach Mettenburger - LSU (4 star, #122 overall)
5. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville (4 star, #98 overall)
6. Tajh Boyd - Clemson (5 star, #31 overall)
7. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
8. AJ McCarron - Alabama (4 star, #87 overall)
9. Blake Bortles - UCF (3 star, #814 overall)
10. Connor Shaw - South Carolina (3 star, #396)

4/10 were top 100 overall players
9/10 won 10 games or more in 2013.

Interesting that many people clown on Connor Shaw but looking back all he did was produce. We’d have killed to have that kid as Miami’s QB in 2018.

2014 (QBs by QB rating)
1. Marcus Mariota - Oregon (3 star, #491 overall)
2. JT Barrett - Ohio State (4 star, #135 overall)
3. Brandon Doughty - WKU (3 star, #1133 overall)
4. Cody Kessler - USC (4 star, #145 overall)
5. Garrett Grayson - CSU (3 star, #952 overall)
6. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927 Overall)
7. Blake Sims - Alabama (4 star, #304 Overall)
8. Bryce Petty - Baylor (3 star, #1086 overall)
9. Grant Hedrick - Boise State (3 star, #1257)
10. Hutson Mason - UGA (3 star, #664)

0/10 in top 100 overall players in their class.

6/10 won at least 10+ games that year.

2015 (QBs by QB rating)
1. Vernon Adams - Oregon (NR)
2. Brandon Doughty - WKU (3 star, #1133 overall)
3. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
4. Kevin Hogan - Stanford (3 star, #356)
5. Brandon Allen - Arkansas (3 star, #354)
6. Matt Johnson - Bowling Green (2 star, #1779)
7. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927)
8. Trevone Boykin - TCU (3 star, #734)
9. Jared Goff - Cal (4 star, #213)
10. Taylor Lamb - App. State (2 star, #2188)

2015 0/10 top 100 overall prospects in their class

2015 6/10 QBs won at least 10 games

2016 QBs by QB rating
1. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
2. Logan Woodside - Toledo (3 star, #1705)
3. Mike White - WKU (3 star, #1273)
4. Zach Terrell - WMU (2 star, #1927)
5. Nick Stevens - CSU (3 star, #1084)
6. Ryan Higgins - Louisiana Tech (3 star, #1577)
7. Jake Browning - Washington (4 star, #73)
8. Nathan Peterman - Pitt (4 star, #369)
9. Sam Darnold - USC (4 star, #148)
10. Mason Rudolph - OKST (4 star, #269)

1/10 top 100 overall prospects
6/10 won 10+ games.


2017 (QBs by rating)
1. Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (3 star, #1029)
2. McKenzie Milton - UCF (3 star, #1161)
3. Mason Rudolph - OKST (4 star, #269)
4. Drew Lock - Mizzou (4 star, #98)
5. Will Grier - WVU (4 star, #48 overall)
6. Logan Woodside - Toledo (3 star, #1705)
7. Riley Ferguson - Memphis (NR, 3 star JUCO)
8. Jake Fromm - UGA (4 star, #44 overall)
9. JT Barrett - OSU (4 star, #135 overall)
10. John Wolford - Wake Forest (3 star, #937)

2/10 top 100 overall players
7/10 won 10+ games.

2018 (QBs by rating)
1. Tua Tagovailoa - Alabama (5 star, #32)
2. Kyler Murray - Oklahoma (5 star, #34)
3. Will Grier - WVU (4 star, #48 overall)
4. Dwayne Haskins - OSU (4 star, #91)
5. Jake Fromm - UGA (4 star, #44 overall)
6. Brock Purdy - ISU (3 star, #839)
7. D’Eriq King - Houston (3 star, #396)
8. Ross Comis - UMASS (2 star, #3171)
9. McKenzie Milton - UCF (3 star, #1161)
10. Jordan Love - Utah State (3 star, #1645)

5/10 in top 100 of their recruiting classes

6/10 won 10+ games.

Overall this isn’t a thread to go start recruiting two and 3 star QBs. But more of how do those guys get overlooked so much!?

Especially the low 3 star and two star guys. Like was their film THAT terrible from HS? Lack of camps or what?

As we know good QB is a large part behind wins and this evidence suggest that as well. Literally if your QB is a top 10 in QBR odds are 60 percent or higher that your squad won 10 games.

I never looked at them side by side like that until today. So this isn’t groundbreaking or anything but something of note I wanted to share with the board.

One of the things I noticed was Tua going from barely playing to Leading the nation in QB Rating. That should be fully credited to Dan Enos.