A lot of confusion here, understandably so.
The Senate will probably pass a version of this- but to be clear:
- there are (probably) 3 more votes to go in the Senate: procedural and final vote - 2 need 60, one just a simple majority, barring some weird-*** ****
- Moody's amendment to give the 180-day exemption COULD still be voted on - depends on Thune/leadership. Not guaranteed a vote, and I guess that it doesn't, but it is possible.
- that amendment doesn't remove the 19-team cap per conference, though.
- 74 votes in cloture leads to the bill passing the Senate in the last decade more than 75% of the time.
BUT
House is not coming back til lame duck
- yes, Trump wants it, but there are most likely a bunch of republicans about to lose their jobs due to him (not getting into politics blue or red, that's just current likely projection whether you love it or not- sorry facts still matter not your network of choice) but of course voting still has to happen
- people that lost their seats in GOP- whether because of who they blame, their own actions, the redistricting not working out, etc are not going to really care that Trump wants it. They care where their next check or next campaign is coming from.
- Entirely possible that the majority of the Florida delegation, with pressure from UM, FSU, etc could tank chances too.
- Speaker barely has control of his caucus anyway, and he might be a lame duck too - almost certain
- OR they pass their own version of this bill and change the realignment and independence caps, and it goes away til they then have to negotiate with the Senate to come up with a unified version.
Still a lot to go; it can happen/might not, along the way.
Usually, a lame-duck session only deals with must-pass budget and defense. This is neither.
Call your reps. This must die as long as section 205 is in it, or you'd better pray that our billionaires want to keep covering what will become a $50 M or more media gap alone with the SEC and Big Ten going forward indefinitely.
If it does pass with all the terrible **** added, get ready for court very shortly after.