CaneBear0207
Junior
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2021
- Messages
- 1,780
If I look at the 247 rankings for HS recruiting classes for the past 5 years and I draw the groups really narrowly, it looks like this:
Group 1 - Alabama, Georgia - One or both of these teams have been top 2 each of the past 5 seasons, and they alternated #1 classes from 2018-2021.
Group 2 - Ohio State, Clemson, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU - A&M was #1 last year, Ohio St has been #2 twice, Texas has been #3 twice, and Clemson & LSU have each had a #3 class in the past 5 years. Since 2019, the lowest ranking for any team in this group was LSU's #12 finish in 2022.
Group 3 - Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Florida, Michigan, Auburn - Remarkable consistency in this group. Over the last 5 years, the highest ranking for any of these 7 schools has been #6 (which Penn St. has done twice), and the lowest finish has been #22 (Michigan, 2018).
Group 4 - Miami, Tennessee, North Carolina, FSU - The highest finish in this group in the past 5 years is UM's 2018 class (#8). UM's last 3 classes (#16, #11, #16) have lagged behind UNC on average but have been better than FSU and Tennessee.
These are the only 18 programs whose average ranking over 5 years is lower than 20. The next lowest average is Kentucky (29.0). USC has had 2 small, low-ranked classes (2020, 2022), which take them out of the picture in the recent past; we all expect that to change.
For 2023, I think a reasonably optimistic goal is for UM to leapfrog Group 3 and land in that top 7-8. That means we'll have to out-recruit Clemson, LSU, Texas, or Texas A&M, or two of those schools, if USC leapfrogs us. I hope and expect that Mario and his staff can pull this off, but this is what we're looking at if we're talking about a top 7-8 class.
Group 1 - Alabama, Georgia - One or both of these teams have been top 2 each of the past 5 seasons, and they alternated #1 classes from 2018-2021.
Group 2 - Ohio State, Clemson, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU - A&M was #1 last year, Ohio St has been #2 twice, Texas has been #3 twice, and Clemson & LSU have each had a #3 class in the past 5 years. Since 2019, the lowest ranking for any team in this group was LSU's #12 finish in 2022.
Group 3 - Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Florida, Michigan, Auburn - Remarkable consistency in this group. Over the last 5 years, the highest ranking for any of these 7 schools has been #6 (which Penn St. has done twice), and the lowest finish has been #22 (Michigan, 2018).
Group 4 - Miami, Tennessee, North Carolina, FSU - The highest finish in this group in the past 5 years is UM's 2018 class (#8). UM's last 3 classes (#16, #11, #16) have lagged behind UNC on average but have been better than FSU and Tennessee.
These are the only 18 programs whose average ranking over 5 years is lower than 20. The next lowest average is Kentucky (29.0). USC has had 2 small, low-ranked classes (2020, 2022), which take them out of the picture in the recent past; we all expect that to change.
For 2023, I think a reasonably optimistic goal is for UM to leapfrog Group 3 and land in that top 7-8. That means we'll have to out-recruit Clemson, LSU, Texas, or Texas A&M, or two of those schools, if USC leapfrogs us. I hope and expect that Mario and his staff can pull this off, but this is what we're looking at if we're talking about a top 7-8 class.
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