Phil Steele's 2019 Surprise Teams

[imyrhuckleberry]

Whwn does Lexington Steele put out his preDICKtions?

I'm sorry but my family filter settings did not allow a search of this item . . . ! I have no idea why a search of football activities would be denied . . .

 

[Number1CanesFan]

He had us #2 surprise team in 2017 also.

Not his fault. We didn't take care of business. He's looking at the roster and seeing that Miami could/should make a run in 2019.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I can’t speak to Steele’s models but I know how I do it is by regressing the data towards the mean using past years data while weighting the most recent year more heavily.

I’ll use averages for previous teams and then use generally available data about newcomers to get a starting spot. Then I regress based on recruiting ranking or performance in HS (versus peers) and then complete projections.

Do something similar for data available for coaching staffs.

It’s a difficult process, and the accuracy for individual players is hit-and-miss, but you can get a pretty good gauge of team performance with this method.

Vegas does a similar process in win projection modeling as well.

That’s probably a great way to do it.

I think what people without any statistics background might fail to consider is the limitations of any models with that many variables.

It’s nearly impossible to correlate that many factors, so a ton of assumptions end up getting made.

With that many factors to correlate, it can get as complex and multi-factorial as climate science modeling

 

[brock]

 

[TruCane81]

 

[CaneDog66]

Wow, I guess his thought process is that Clemson lost all or almost all of that vaunted DL from last year as being the reason we’re higher than Clemson? Otherwise, if we live up to the #2 billing, coupled with at minimum a Top 50 offense there’s absolutely no reason not to post 10-11 victories this upcoming season. I don’t agree with Vag Tech at #15 given their injuries and Portal losses but I guess the thought is with Bud Foster still there anything Cane happen for the Hokies.

 

[grover]

He's seen what Manny did in the portal. 2 best DEs in the ACC, 2 best LBs, 3 returning starters at DT, Finley and McCloud at Striker/LB hybrid. Bolden and Bandy at DB with plenty of other talent to cover the other 2 spots. I'm sure Clemson is reloading this year. But our 1s are worth a look. Top 2 in ACC and Top 5 in the country for sure.

 

[Saviorcane]

He had us #2 surprise team in 2017 also.

We did win 10 games and the Coastal.

 

[MainLineCane]

Feel like we make this list every year.

Agree 100%

We ALWAYS start the year as favorites for the Coastal .....then for whatever reasons with the exception of only ONE year....start off great but end up at the finish gassed and behind.

There will be a NEW MIAMI when we finally start living up to expectations....and stop being the favorite that seems to always disappoint

 

[MIA42178]

He had us #2 surprise team in 2017 also.

2018, he had
1. Notre Dame (playoffs)
2. Texas (10-4, beat UGA in Sugar Bowl)

 

[BeastMode]

10 wins minimum and ACCCG appearance.

Write that **** down CIS

Only if we find a QB. Many reporters so the talent Miami has and how we should run through the Coastal. Can we finally put it together and get it done?

 

[grover]

Only if we find a QB. Many reporters so the talent Miami has and how we should run through the Coastal. Can we finally put it together and get it done?

To answer your question, “yes”. In Enos we Trust.