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Phil Steele OL Rankings

His metrics are primarily focussed on returning starts. Our OL is going to get better and better as the season goes on. Our schedule sets up nicely for that.
 
AtlAtty said:
Phil Steele puts an incredible amount of significance on returning experience. It isTHE metric he uses to predict future results. By his methodology, UM probably ranks around #39 in experience.
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We’re like 110th in returning starts. The fact he has us 39th is probably taking the positives into consideration (Mario/Mirabal, Cantwell being generational etc)

I’m quite confident 38 teams won’t have a better line but I have no issue with the ranking at this point. We have a ton of questions to answer. But I do think they’ll be answered just fine.
 
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The U is back to work said:
Is he wrong tho? I have no clue but I assume our OL last year preseason on his list was rated very high lol did we trust it then?
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We were ranked very high by Steele last year. I don’t have a probelm with the ranking considering his methodology. We can then debate whether he puts too much emphasis on returning starters.
 
He'll have Cantwell as an All-Freshman, maybe All American and he'll have Buchanan in his All-Conference team by the end of the season. He'll rave about Pancake and McCoy. In his post-season evaluation, he'll talk about how Miami's offensive line matured over the season to become one of the nation's best led by the freshman Cantwell.
 
skyman said:
Thats higher than I woulda thought, its a fair "show me" ranking.. We are replacing ALOT.. Anybody who isnt complete homer (which we all are) would have question mark and want to see something.. When the only starter returning was the lowest on totem pole from last year line and playing out of position with low pass blocking pff marks it is natural to have questions.. Need to see McCoy perform at new position, he had trouble pass blocking inside, now he will see more speed.
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Your first phrase was right. Coulda/shoulda stopped there.

We do have plenty to prove but there are not 38 better o lines than ours.
 
skyman said:
Thats higher than I woulda thought, its a fair "show me" ranking.. We are replacing ALOT.. Anybody who isnt complete homer (which we all are) would have question mark and want to see something.. When the only starter returning was the lowest on totem pole from last year line and playing out of position with low pass blocking pff marks it is natural to have questions.. Need to see McCoy perform at new position, he had trouble pass blocking inside, now he will see more speed.
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All valid points. Also in regard to Matt McCoy, the comments you made above are exactly the reason that I'm not 100% sure about McCoy making it to the season opener @Stanford as the #1 RT. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get supplanted by Samson Okunlola, Jamal Merriwether, Jaden Wilkerson or maybe even true freshman Ben Congdon before the end of fall camp.
 
Say what you want about Phil Steele's recent projections, but historically, returning OL starts are one of the most reliable analytical predictors of offensive success.

Advanced metrics heavily weight career snaps because 5 guys playing in perfect unison will almost always outperform unproven cohesion, regardless of raw recruit talent.

Historically, there is a direct correlation between returning OL experience and immediate jumps in both rushing efficiency and lower sack rates..truth.

The lack of chemistry will lead to early-season growing pains.

It makes perfect sense why a numbers-driven model would give a "show me" ranking to a unit replacing almost its entire starting lineup.

Let's hope the skill position players can make up for this.
 
Novacane32000 said:
Say what you want about Phil Steele's recent projections, but historically, returning OL starts are one of the most reliable analytical predictors of offensive success.

Advanced metrics heavily weight career snaps because 5 guys playing in perfect unison will almost always outperform unproven cohesion, regardless of raw recruit talent.

Historically, there is a direct correlation between returning OL experience and immediate jumps in both rushing efficiency and lower sack rates..truth.

The lack of chemistry will lead to early-season growing pains.

It makes perfect sense why a numbers-driven model would give a "show me" ranking to a unit replacing almost its entire starting lineup.

Let's hope the skill position players can make up for this.
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There are a bunch of generalizations in your comment. Obviously 5 guys "playing in perfect unison" are going to be better than similarly talented people who don't. Doesn't tell us much.

Lots of teams have average returning starters that pump up rank in this system. I put very little stock in because it has no subtlety.

For an obvious example, doesn't a no start freshman who was the best O lineman in high school last year count more than some jag at an average school?
 
NCCanefan said:
There are a bunch of generalizations in your comment. Obviously 5 guys "playing in perfect unison" are going to be better than similarly talented people who don't. Doesn't tell us much.

Lots of teams have average returning starters that pump up rank in this system. I put very little stock in because it has no subtlety.

For an obvious example, doesn't a no start freshman who was the best O lineman in high school last year count more than some jag at an average school?
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OL and QB are the 2 positions that tend to bust the most coming out of HS with high star ratings.

Phil Steel surely knows that, and the reason he puts so much weight on experience in the OL and very little weight on a Jackson Cantwell, even with the 5 stars coming in.

Ryan Rodriquez at Center with virtually no live snaps is a concern. I think he is a senior so he has a lot of practice snaps. Maybe that will count for something.

Max Buchanan is another concern with few live snaps.

Samson Okunula and Mat McCoy have about one season of live snaps but sounds like they will be at new positions on the OL.

Jamal Merriweather comes from a team where he didn't even start. Not sure how much playing time he gets here.

Hopefully, they start to gel before the Clemson game, Week 5.
 
Novacane32000 said:
OL and QB are the 2 positions that tend to bust the most coming out of HS with high star ratings.

Phil Steel surely knows that, and the reason he puts so much weight on experience in the OL and very little weight on a Jackson Cantwell, even with the 5 stars coming in.

Ryan Rodriquez at Center with virtually no live snaps is a concern. I think he is a senior so he has a lot of practice snaps. Maybe that will count for something.

Max Buchanan is another concern with few live snaps.

Samson Okunula and Mat McCoy have about one season of live snaps but sounds like they will be at new positions on the OL.

Jamal Merriweather comes from a team where he didn't even start. Not sure how much playing time he gets here.

Hopefully, they start to gel before the Clemson game, Week 5.
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All that's great but you didn't answer my question. You and Steel appear to favor the experienced jag instead of a Cantwell. That makes no sense to me and hence my comment that the Steel methodology is mostly counting how many snaps some guy has taken.

CIS needs to figure out how to add betting. I'll take Canes OL better than 39th in the country
 
NCCanefan said:
All that's great but you didn't answer my question. You and Steel appear to favor the experienced jag instead of a Cantwell. That makes no sense to me and hence my comment that the Steel methodology is mostly counting how many snaps some guy has taken.

CIS needs to figure out how to add betting. I'll take Canes OL better than 39th in the country
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Its not just the poster and Steele who favor experience, this is something that is pretty universal that combined starts on oline is a plus.. Does that mean we are screwed no, but when has experience been a bad thing all things being equal? I have heard the combined starts thing for decade+ while watching cfb be point to as a plus..
 
skyman said:
Its not just the poster and Steele who favor experience, this is something that is pretty universal that combined starts on oline is a plus.. Does that mean we are screwed no, but when has experience been a bad thing all things being equal? I have heard the combined starts thing for decade+ while watching cfb be point to as a plus..
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Obviously experience counts.

I guess you also believe 38 o lines will be better than ours. That’s steels prediction.

I disagree. What’s your prediction.
 
If you know you know, we’ll be much better than 39th. By mid season they’ll be saying top 10. A slight drop off from top 5 last season
 
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