Perspective from ND Fan

Good post overall. Only thing I disagree with is the Love analysis. Can’t downplay his big runs because they did happen and impacted those games. If he goes something like 14 for 130 against us, with one of those being a 60 yard TD (13 for 70, 5.4yd per carry on remaining runs), that’s still a great game for a RB.

For example, in the same post you highlight how our freshman RB had two 100 yard games to Love’s five. But if you take out Lyle’s 91yd TD run against USF, he only went 5 for 7yds the rest of the game.


Good lord. Nobody is DOWNPLAYING his big runs. Nobody is saying they didn't happen. Nobody is saying that they didn't impact those games.

But he had FIVE long runs in SIXTEEN games. That's it. As a Bucs fan for most of my life, I certainly saw enough of Barry Sanders to know the feeling of seeing 20 short runs offset by a highlight-worthy home run. But Barry had a couple of home runs in nearly every game. Not "one every third game".

The real key to this analysis is not to hypothesize a fantasy stat line for Love, or to compare him to a true freshman on Miami. BUT TO ******* FATHOM A POSSIBILITY WHERE AN IMPROVED MIAMI DEFENSE IS ACTUALLY ABLE TO PREVENT THE HOME RUN PLAYS.

This is where our fans (intentionally or unintentionally) start ******** themselves and preparing for us to lose a game before it ever starts. Maybe they are not old enough to have watched us play in the 1980s or 1990s or early 2000s. Or maybe they are just too pessimistic to believe that we can succeed in addressing the single worst aspect of our defense from 2024, the explosive plays.

The REASON I am analyzing Jeremiyah Love is because his glaring lack of major production ON EVERYTHING BUT HIS FIVE BIG PLAYS was a consistent feature across SIXTEEN OPPONENTS. I'm not trying to say "he played better against the lesser teams". Others may have said that, but not me. You SHOULD play better against lesser teams. That's how football works.

What I am saying is that ACROSS SIXTEEN GAMES, he had 5 truly impressive plays. So from a statistical standpoint, let alone what MIAMI MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF DOING WITH AN IMPROVED DEFENSE, I will take those odds.

I'm not going to **** and **** down my leg simply from hearing the name "Jeremiyah Love". He might be good in the NFL. He might be good this season. He might be good this game. But if the Miami defense does what it is supposed to do under Hetherman, from communicating to "swarming" to tackling more effectively than in 2024, then it is very possible that Miami COULD prevent any home run plays from Love or the other running back. At least for one game.

But, yeah, go back to nitpicking because I didn't include the MIAMI running backs in the analysis, BECAUSE WE HAD THE GREATEST SINGLE-SEASON PASSING SEASON IN OUR HISTORY DURING 2024.

It's just frustrating that so many self-hating Miami fans have to nitpick or "keep it real" instead of just thinking about the overall analysis.

The running QB is gone. A freshman QB who has never started a game is there. So maybe, just maybe, if we devote our defensive focus to preventing any rushing home runs, we might get to the end of the game without having given up any. And then, hey, maybe the GOAT college running back Jeremiyah Love can get his 5 long runs against the other 11 teams on the Notre Dame regular season schedule.

I just can't stand "give-up" types of people. Surrender monkeys. Whether it's players on the field or posters on the board.
 
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I've had a question about Notre Dame's secondary from last season. These are the passing offenses they faced and their ranking in ypg:

Texas A&M - 87th
UNI - 118th
Purdue - 113th
Miami (OH) - 80th
Louisville - 26th
Stanford - 105th
GT - 54th
Navy - 132nd
FSU - 116th
UVA - 64th
Army - 134th
USC - 10th
Indiana - 34th
Georgia - 12th
Penn State - 66th
Ohio State - 29th

-Louisville averaged 264 ypg and ND gave up 264 yards
-GT averaged 237 ypg and ND gave up 269 yards
-USC averaged 291 and ND gave up 360 yards
-Georgia was without Beck and Stockton put up 234 yards in his 1st start
-Ohio State averaged 263 ypg and ND gave up 231 but Howard went 17-21

If you look at how Notre Dame's secondary performance holds up against the other defenses those teams played on their schedule:

Louisville: ND ranks 5th best with 30 yards separating them from 9th best
GT: ND ranks 7th best with 5 yards separating them from 9th best
USC: ND ranks 12th best with 18 yards separating them from giving up the most yards on USC's schedule
 
We're arguing over semantics here, but I'd consider a big run over 20 yards. 20 yard runs make defenses think differently and can flip the field when you're backed up.


I'm not arguing your point.

I'm simply analyzing it against what Miami's defense did last year.

For instance, in 2024, Miami gave up FOUR passes of greater than 50 yards. To Cal. In the first 37 minutes of the game. And only ONE to a wide receiver. For the record, we won the game.

So, yeah, I'm not talking about "20 yard runs that can make defenses think differently". I'm talking about loooong runs and loooong passes that involve Miami defenders being out-of-position and/or making terrible missed-tackles.

I am not really concerned if Notre Dame gets a couple of 20 yard runs. I'm far more concerned with preventing the absolutely DISASTROUS big plays that destroyed all of the defensive momentum Miami tried to build in 2024. I don't care if the Miami defense "thinks differently". I only care about our defense getting hammered by big plays that destroy their confidence and confuse them for the rest of the game. Because I saw THAT in 2024 a few more times than I care to acknowledge.

****, I don't even know if our defense really "stopped" Cal in the final 23 minutes. I think that Cal just ran out of energy and couldn't score on our defense any longer. Those guys on the Cal offense were EXHAUSTED.
 
Pauling is a 5th year senior with one decent season at Wisconsin. If he had the juice he wouldn't still be playing college ball. There is a ceiling on his ability a la Meesh Powell.

Fields has the size that turns heads but hes a career 14-15 yards per catch guy. He's not Chris Henry Jr. Looking at his game log there really isn't much vs high end comp that makes you worried. The Miami outside corner room runs 6'-6'2" for all of the starters which is bigger than most DB rooms.

Greathouse had the two strong playoff games but OSU was up 31-7 late in the 3Q before he showed up. His 2024 season was otherwise basically the same as 2023... a few hundred yards per season, 14 yards per catch.

I think they are a decent group within the scheme, but I don't think any of them are matchup nightmares that require Miami to gameplan for.


Trust this man. He's from Wisconsin, he knows Wisconsin players.
 
We're arguing over semantics here, but I'd consider a big run over 20 yards. 20 yard runs make defenses think differently and can flip the field when you're backed up.
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100000% And it's not close. I think we're hoping it "flips on" when it's gametime, like it did for Deshone Kizer. Kizer's practice reports were far worse than Carr's, but he was a really good college QB and a 2nd round pick.

Carr could be the difference between 12-0 and 8-4. Before you come after me for saying "12-0", we are technically favored in every game this year.

Freeman has done a great job of increasing the talent and creating very quality depth. I said in another post that there isn't a big drop-off between 1s and 2s. There's a lot to like about this team as a contender, but QB is huge question mark.
We say 15-0 ALL THE TIME friend.

We listen and we do not judge.
 
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We will have success in the passing game, it just won’t be against Leonard Moore. I wonder if they will be more flexible in how they use him. I would guess not and he will have the boundary.
 
We will have success in the passing game, it just won’t be against Leonard Moore. I wonder if they will be more flexible in how they use him. I would guess not and he will have the boundary.
Moore said he trained a lot on in the offseason on his field coverage and he can play both sides now. We'll see ...
 
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So every game I go over to the other team's boards to see what they think of their team's strengths and weaknesses. I have been doing so for years, and I have to admit this is my favorite board I have ever been to; other than my own home ND board, of course. You guys definitely have a knowledgeable, passionate, and fun board here. Good luck to you guys this season, just maybe a little less luck on Sunday. Maybe we will see you again later in the season.
 
First, thanks for letting me join and chime in on this Sunday's game from a Notre Dame perspective. Yes, there are some ND fans (not unlike any fanbase) that think we shouldn't have a problem beating Miami on Sunday. I've read similar posts from Miami fans on this message board - we're all fans and support our guys - that's who we are and what makes this fun: tribalism.

Second, I'll tell you the mindset of educated ND Fans and where we're coming from - why there's reason for us to be confident in certain areas and why we're hoping for the best in others. I've seen some other posts here that give grades/analysis by position group, which is how my mind works as well, but I won't compare our position groups to your opposing groups (EX: ND RBs vs. Miami DL/LBs). I think all positions rooms are interconnected in the success of collective group - it's not quite that binary to me. Forgive me, this will be heavy on Notre Dame insight. I know a decent amount about Miami, but obviously my Notre Dame intel is far greater.

Finally, I have no idea what's going to happen on Sunday night. I believe it'll be a good game, and probably pretty low scoring. I do know this Notre Dame team is not going to be intimidated by the environment (except maybe CJ since it's his first start). Freeman is the real deal and this is a team full of players who played at A&M last year in front of 107k (I was there) and made it to all the way to the national championship game last year (I was there as well). That's really good experience to draw on.

RB: We believe this to be the most talented and deepest RB room in America. Jeremiyah Love is a different caliber of player, one we haven't seen in South Bend in a long time. We also believe his #2, Jadarian Price, is an NFL-caliber back. I think we'll see some different looks from ND's offense this year with both on the field, and possibly splitting out Love into the slot to force 1:1 coverage with a LB or Safety. That's a matchup we would like very much. This is an A++ room, no doubt.

OL: There were a lot of people considering the Notre Dame OL as the preseason favorite for the Joe Moore award this year. I think they'd be a contender if Charles Jagusah was healthy all year, but even then, I have questions. They return a lot from last year, but we also struggled in run block and pass pro against the better teams we played. Does Bain switch sides? I'd guess he'd have more success against our LT, Anthonie Knapp, who is undersized for the position. RT, Aamil Wagner, is much larger and has been mentioned in All-America conversations. There's lots more to say on this Miami DL/ND OL matchup. Overall: I think ND's floor in this room is a B+, but could be an A-. Need to see more.

WR/TE: We believe we've upgraded the WR room since last year, pretty significantly. I don't know that we have the 'homerun hitter' we've been missing for a long time, but I think this is a very solid group. Greathouse showed he can be depended on in the playoff and we added Malachi Fields from UVA and Will Pauling from Wisconsin. There's a good amount of young talent as well. Eli Raridon at TE could be a matchup nightmare and should be CJ Carr's best friend. 6'7"/250 and can move. It'll be interesting to see this matchup with an overhauled Miami secondary. Overall, I give this group a B+.

QB: Honestly, who knows ... CJ has a lot of talent and the ceiling is high, but he's obviously young. Having your first game on the road against a good Miami team is a tough spot. He's a gun-slinger and rumor is he presses. With that comes some amazing throws, but also silly mistakes. My hope is the game plan and Miami-specific installs limit those and he throws less than 2 INTs on Sunday. I tend to think he'll get a lot better throughout the year and I certainly wish he'd get 2 or 3 cupcakes before Miami. Hopefully it's a B.

DL: Not having Jordan Bothelo for Miami hurts. He sets the edge really well and is extremely valuable in the run game. Luckily, there's depth at DE, and ND will run this by committee. A name to keep an eye on is, Bryce Young. He's true sophomore and he's 6'7"/275. We're pretty high on him and expect a lot of production this year. The interior DL was our concern pre-camp, but we might be okay here. We've heard really good things about Jason Onye at DT (long story with him over the years). So, here's an area we're 'hoping' is solid - we'll have to see. This is another area ND will run by committee to keep a less talented IDL fresh. Edge: A- / IDL: B.

LB: We're really good here. Not going to blow you away like Saban's LBs or Georgia's LBs when they've been really good, but probably the best LB group ND has had since the 90s? Might be. No super stars (hopefully 'yet'), but we have four really good ones (Drayk Bowen is the highest PFF returning starter at LB in college football). We blitz them a lot to pressure the QB, which we absolutely need to do to win this game. Beck is outstanding when he has time, but he was one of the worst in the Power 4 last year when pressured. We have the ability to do this because of our secondary (see below). Overall: A- (could be A)

Secondary: Here's a group we're pretty confident in. Leonard Moore is a pre-season first team All-American and the #1 PFF ranked CB in America. Opposite him, is Christian Gray, who's a very good college corner. Sometimes he gets picked on because Moore has taken away half the field. Miami has young talent, and these guys have to do their job, so the DL and LBs can focus on stopping the run. Adon Shuler, at Safety, is a guy we like a lot. He's going to be more of a roamer in the outfield this year, whereas last year he played a lot of underneath. We run a 4-2-5 with a lot of pressure and we brought in Devonta Smith, Alabama's starting nickel from last year to play the slot position. Expect to see him on blitzes as well. Overall: this group is an A.

As you can tell - this comes down to QB play for us. There's a lot to like about this team and as long as they stop the run and take care of the ball on Sunday, we'll have a great opportunity to win. Miami has some dudes. As I said before, I expect a low scoring game and it likely coming down to the 4th quarter. Sorry for the long post - couldn't get to everything, but happy to interact.
Stopped reading at educated. Fans and educated do not correlate…next
 
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