Whatever McCarthy did in the past does not change what he did yesterday. That was one of the most poorly coached second halves I've seen in a long time. Reminded me of the FSU game. Seattle may have needed the luck of that onside kick, but it should have never come to that anyway.
If you control the game when you're dictating to the other team, why allow that to change so drastically? The fact he allowed his team to play so tight in the 4th quarter is on him. When Morgan Burnett goes down (live commentators called it "wise" and made me want to vomit) after an INT with 30 yards of open field in front of him, that team has the wrong mindset.
Agreed. It was absurd. Every decision was tentative and frail, including failing to challenge Richard Sherman when he's blatantly protecting one arm.
Comebacks like that are more available at home. That's why Jimmy Johnson understood and emphasized the need to take chances on the road in pivotal games. He was supremely aggressive at San Francisco in the 1992 NFC Championship game as 4.5 point underdog, the game that surged the Cowboys toward their eventual dynasty. McCarthy yesterday failed from the outset with the 4th down conservatism. Seattle at that point has no idea if they can stop you. You've controlled everything, minus one play from Sherman. Jam it into the end zone. There are tons of studies regarding how road teams fare if the first score is a field goal or touchdown. It's not even close. The risk is more than worth it.
For one thing, Seattle figured to be shellshocked in the early stages of this game. This was the first time they had faced a superior team in the playoffs. They weren't going to understand that. Last season Seattle led the league in YPPA Differential at an excellent +2.6. Including interceptions, their 2013 adjusted differential was a preposterous +4.7. That's obscene, like a college team picking on 35 point underdogs every week. For reference, the 1985 Bears had an adjusted differential of only +2.8. The sports media last season did a horrendous job detailing just how dominant Seattle had been, long before the Super Bowl. They were actually underdog to Denver. With those numbers the Seahawks were eligible for an extra gear or several, accounting for the Super Bowl onslaught.
This season, even with the extraordinary closing stretch of games, Seattle is a very ordinary +1.1 YPPA Differential. That was third in the league. Normally it would be worse than that. Not many excellent teams this year, just many good ones. Green Bay was +1.6, and in adjusted differential they led the league at +3.0. Ballhawk team, which showed up yesterday. Since Seattle had been at least a half yard above every playoff opponent last year and this year until yesterday, they entered the game expecting more of the same. I've seen this countless times previously. Denver experienced it last year in the Super Bowl. When you go from comfortably above the opponent in YPPA Differential to suddenly much worse, bad things happen on both sides of the ball, particularly before you can regroup. Often they never regroup.
I should point out that New England is a strange animal. They often fare well in the playoffs when their YPPA Differential is mediocre, like this year, and poorly when it is great. I don't care about them. Only a Bar Stooler would make a separate category based on one team. The theory in general holds up and has an excellent winning percentage. I had Green Bay plus the +7.5 yesterday. Somehow it climbed to +8.5 and even +9 briefly in the hours before kickoff. Luckily I didn't take the generous money line of +330 in the late going. Some of my friends did. Brutal beat.
While Green Bay erred, Pete Carroll did not receive enough credit for some of his choices. Calling two time outs just inside the 5 minute mark but saving the third was absolutely correct strategy. There was still slightly above 4 minutes remaining. The extra time out allowed opportunity to get the ball back with a reasonable amount of time, even if the onside kick failed, as long as Seattle scored the stepladder touchdown outside the 2 minute mark. The Seahawks barely managed that.
Also, Seattle wisely chose a standard onside kick. So many coaches these days get ridiculously cute, like faking one direction and kicking the other way, or having the kicker try to recover it himself going straight forward, or kicking toward the open area behind the front wall, the area that actually is never open. All of them is sacrificing percentages, not adding to it. Seattle forced Green Bay to make a play. Rather standard play but it didn't happen.
The final failure was moronic conservatism on the final Green Bay possession. Somebody here already mentioned that. With all three time outs they needed to call them early and save time for the dagger touchdown. That first time out should have followed the play ending in Seattle territory with just under 1 minute remaining. Denver early this season charged down the field at Seattle while 8 points down in the final minute. Peyton Manning tied the game effortlessly. When Green Bay meekly saved two time outs and settled for the field goal, they risked the same fate Denver found...Seattle winning the overtime toss followed by Russell Wilson cleanly converting a vital third down and driving quickly for the winning touchdown on the opening possession.
Anyway, Seattle at +1.1 is like a racehorse one year beyond its peak, but still using the same style. Very vulnerable. It was comical when the sports media was trying to pretend the late winning streak made them stronger than last year. Entirety dictates. Momentum could not be more overstated. It's how good are you, not how good are you playing?