So with the NFL Draft season about to kick into full gear and NSD 2: Electric Boogaloo still to come, the question crossed my mind:
How does your evaluation of a HS player differ to that of a College player?
I've found I'm pretty good at evaluating College players with regards to their prospects as NFL players (sans Jimmy Clausen, **** you!), but for HS players the top rated guys to me mostly just appear to be the best athlete on the field.
What's the nuance behind finding out which 5 star will bust (Pope / Lingard) and which SoFl 3 star will live up to the legend?
IMO there are different things you're looking for.
HS players are raw and earlier in their development. It's not that hard to see which ones have high athletic ceilings, but that's not really the question - there are a lot more athletic guys than first round picks. The question is which ones have the character, drive, personality call it what you want to do the work to keep getting better. Contrast the NFL draft - by the time you're looking at guys for the NFL, you've already selected out the ones who didn't have the personality / character. Sure, those traits continue to matter in the NFL, but most of your pool has them. So what you're looking for changes.
Also, the athletic equilibrium in the NFL is different from college. In college, with the exception of a couple schools talent is spread out, so some kids can look good by just being the best athlete on the field most of the time. Other kids can look good by being the hardest working kid on the field most of the time. In the NFL, if you ain't both, life can be tough. So IMO in the NFL, skill and technique (as opposed to raw ability or character) are real differentiators. The kids who are so athletically gifted they dominate in college but don't put in the work usually don't pan out well in the NFL.
One thing to think about is that in many endeavors, the signs of risk or failure and the signs of success are different indicators. So there are some people who can probably be decent at telling you who won't work out in college or the pros, say. Doesn't mean they'll be great at tellign you who will -- they're looking for different things.
All that said, I really don't know how to assess QB. Continues to confuse me. People say its smarts, but Akili Smith or whatever his name was was like an SAT whiz, and failed. Some say 'football smarts.' Maybe. That means something different for a LB or S than a QB.
And finally, AI and Machine Learning is going to radically change the NFL's predictive model and draft models within a decade, probably within 5 years. IMO.