OT: Player evaluation

OldhamA

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So with the NFL Draft season about to kick into full gear and NSD 2: Electric Boogaloo still to come, the question crossed my mind:

How does your evaluation of a HS player differ to that of a College player?

I've found I'm pretty good at evaluating College players with regards to their prospects as NFL players (sans Jimmy Clausen, **** you!), but for HS players the top rated guys to me mostly just appear to be the best athlete on the field.

What's the nuance behind finding out which 5 star will bust (Pope / Lingard) and which SoFl 3 star will live up to the legend?
 
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So with the NFL Draft season about to kick into full gear and NSD 2: Electric Boogaloo still to come, the question crossed my mind:

How does your evaluation of a HS player differ to that of a College player?

I've found I'm pretty good at evaluating College players with regards to their prospects as NFL players (sans Jimmy Clausen, **** you!), but for HS players the top rated guys to me mostly just appear to be the best athlete on the field.

What's the nuance behind finding out which 5 star will bust (Pope / Lingard) and which SoFl 3 star will live up to the legend?
For some they just have a natural ability to recognize talent and make it work... Lot's of times it's not so much the evaluators as it is the athlete...
Some guys just don't work at the next level... They're not the fastest or strongest anymore and they just get lost in the wash... To say there's a actual nuance is tough because if there was everyone would do it and we know that just isn't the case....
 
For the most part all you can do is evaluate traits and fundamental skills. A traits example would be Zion Nelson who was a 2* with great traits vs Bar Milo who was a 4* with ordinary traits. An example of the skills component would be Jake Garcia's smooth, confident footwork in the pocket vs Perry wildly running around the pocket like it's backyard football, or how a WR catches a football.

Rarely you'll find a player whose talent and skills transcend the above where it's like you're evaluating a refined college player and can project with certainty. Those are typically 5*s like Joey Bosa, Vernon Hargreaves, Flowe or that Shipley kid that signed with Clemson.

With a college player I can dig a lot deeper like evaluating Justin Fields vs late coverage shifts and specific pressure looks, or how an RB's reads and footwork play out in gap or zone schemes. And it's more clear-cut projecting players to specific schemes and roles.
 
So with the NFL Draft season about to kick into full gear and NSD 2: Electric Boogaloo still to come, the question crossed my mind:

How does your evaluation of a HS player differ to that of a College player?

I've found I'm pretty good at evaluating College players with regards to their prospects as NFL players (sans Jimmy Clausen, **** you!), but for HS players the top rated guys to me mostly just appear to be the best athlete on the field.

What's the nuance behind finding out which 5 star will bust (Pope / Lingard) and which SoFl 3 star will live up to the legend?
Development which coincides to want Too. A lot of those kids in HS dominate of pure athleticism advantages. At the college level those advantages disappear quick.

development is a 2 way street. You have to have the ppl in your building who can connect with these guys. But the kids have to want to work. That’s where I think character evaluations are soo important. If a kid doesn’t have a great sense of work ethic in HS it’s hard to get that out of him in college. If a kid isn’t receptive to coaching in HS it’s hard to get it out of him in college...

now if you have a culture in place of high level competition throughout the building those guys who may not have that mentality off the bat might come around quick if there’s a standard set by their peers and the environment . That’s what made us great in the past, that’s Why bama, OSU, Clemson are on auto pilot

as for the star system. It correlates to success. Don’t let anyone tell you it doesn’t. The key is getting a high percentage of top level guys. Understanding not every 4star kid is quite the same. Then hitting on a high percentage of them. Bama for example brings in high level 4stars and multiple 5 stars every class. They don’t hit on a lot of them. But since they bring a high number guys who fit the billing, it creates competition all throughout that building. And either u gonna wait your turn, transfer out or sink or thrive. Because the next cycle a group just as talented If not more are coming in. UGA, OSU, OU, Clemson all do the same

what weve been missing is stacking elite classes with top notch talent at premier positions.
 
So with the NFL Draft season about to kick into full gear and NSD 2: Electric Boogaloo still to come, the question crossed my mind:

How does your evaluation of a HS player differ to that of a College player?

I've found I'm pretty good at evaluating College players with regards to their prospects as NFL players (sans Jimmy Clausen, **** you!), but for HS players the top rated guys to me mostly just appear to be the best athlete on the field.

What's the nuance behind finding out which 5 star will bust (Pope / Lingard) and which SoFl 3 star will live up to the legend?
IMO there are different things you're looking for.

HS players are raw and earlier in their development. It's not that hard to see which ones have high athletic ceilings, but that's not really the question - there are a lot more athletic guys than first round picks. The question is which ones have the character, drive, personality call it what you want to do the work to keep getting better. Contrast the NFL draft - by the time you're looking at guys for the NFL, you've already selected out the ones who didn't have the personality / character. Sure, those traits continue to matter in the NFL, but most of your pool has them. So what you're looking for changes.

Also, the athletic equilibrium in the NFL is different from college. In college, with the exception of a couple schools talent is spread out, so some kids can look good by just being the best athlete on the field most of the time. Other kids can look good by being the hardest working kid on the field most of the time. In the NFL, if you ain't both, life can be tough. So IMO in the NFL, skill and technique (as opposed to raw ability or character) are real differentiators. The kids who are so athletically gifted they dominate in college but don't put in the work usually don't pan out well in the NFL.

One thing to think about is that in many endeavors, the signs of risk or failure and the signs of success are different indicators. So there are some people who can probably be decent at telling you who won't work out in college or the pros, say. Doesn't mean they'll be great at tellign you who will -- they're looking for different things.

All that said, I really don't know how to assess QB. Continues to confuse me. People say its smarts, but Akili Smith or whatever his name was was like an SAT whiz, and failed. Some say 'football smarts.' Maybe. That means something different for a LB or S than a QB.

And finally, AI and Machine Learning is going to radically change the NFL's predictive model and draft models within a decade, probably within 5 years. IMO.
 
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Don't forget production either. There seems to be a tendency to get caught up in camp performances while overlooking on the field production. Look no further than Pope and Wiggins. They didn't produce a lot in high school and I remember asking how in the world you could have two supposed talents like that not killing it in the stats department.

Freeman at QB was another I thought was suspect as **** back in the day. Captain Jack was another, people were so thirsty to solve our QB problem, that they excused his lack of efficient production. When you have talent, as a coach, you will use that talent.

Of course it can go the other way as well. OL is notoriously difficult to project because you've got big dudes beating up on players a hundred pounds less than them.
 
Most of it is system. Take Cam Akers for example 5 star player high school goes to a terrible offensive system. Now in NFL tearing it up. Lot of players have the talent, but just dont put themselves in best position to succeed. Pope and Wiggins stats would be get if they stop catching with their body and learn to trust their hands.
 
Most of it is system. Take Cam Akers for example 5 star player high school goes to a terrible offensive system. Now in NFL tearing it up. Lot of players have the talent, but just dont put themselves in best position to succeed. Pope and Wiggins stats would be get if they stop catching with their body and learn to trust their hands.

Cam Akers was good in college too lol. He literally carried that offense
 
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