Opening line for Pitt, -14

[Tetragrammaton Cane]

Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.

You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."

"-" numbers in the 100's are how much you would need to bet to win $100.
"+" numbers in the 100's are how much a $100 bet you would win.

The whole 9:2, 10:1, is easiest to think about in $100 incraments, so a $200 bet would win $900, a $100 bet would win $1,000, etc.

If you bet $120 on Detroit, they would have to lose by less than 3 points, and you would get $100 in winnings.
If you bet $100 on Min, they would have to win by 3.5 points, and you would get $100 in winnings.

Over 44.5, bet $110, get $100.
same for under.

Money line, gets rid of the spread, so you are just picking who wins the game, but your payouts get adjusted accordingly.

Hope that helps.

Helps a ton. Thank you.

 

[Tetragrammaton Cane]

Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.

You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."

I agree with what hurricane8915 wrote. When it comes to a pointspread, the vigorish or "vig" a/k/a "juice" is the price paid by the bettor. It's analogous to the bid-ask spread for stocks. So, in your example, Minnesota -3 +100, Detroit +3 -120, the pointspread is 3, but the price varies depending on whether you're betting the dog or the fave. If the final score is Vikings 23, Lions 20, then the Vikings won by the exact margin of the spread and everyone gets their money back. That is...everyone who laid 3 with Minnesota or took 3 with Detroit. That is why beating the closing line and getting the best price is imperative for someone to win long-term (which only 1% do).

If you snagged Minnesota -2.5 earlier in the week and someone else bet Minnesota -3 just before kickoff and Minnesota wins by exactly 3, you win and the other guy pushes.

Some casinos are notorious for not just booking bets, but making bets themselves. Pinnacle is notorious for this offshore and the Mirage is known for this in Vegas, as is South Point. What I mean by that is if you look at the screen (the list of the odds available around the world, available by Don Best or free versions at vegasinsider.com or sportsbookreview.com), you'll notice not all casinos offer the same odds. Usually you'll find a few that are offering a half point or even a full point off the consensus line. Smart gamblers will go out of their way to seek out those sites and the slow moving antelopes that adjust their lines more slowly than others. So if at most outs the line is Vikings -3, but you see Pinnacle offering Vikings -2.5 at higher juice, that tells you that Pinnacle wants you to bet the Vikings there. Why? Because they're offering you a free half point at higher juice. So what a lot of guys do is they see this (known as the "Pinny lean") and bet the opposite side -- Detroit +3 -- elsewhere. You wouldn't bet Detroit +2.5 at Pinnacle when you can get +3 at other outs.

There's a lot to digest when it comes to this stuff. OK, so the line moved. Was that predicated upon injury news and is just an adjustment? Or was it due to a large wager by a known winner? It's the latter that's important. And sites will move their lines sometimes just because they see other sites moving theirs. This is known as "moving on air" and should be ignored. I care about line movement when (a) there's no breaking injury news, (b) when the line moves (late moves are always more important than early for football since late money matters most), and (c) where is the line moving (i.e. is Pinnacle moving its number, or is it some scrub casino IDGAF about)?

The price on the ML for Miami to beat Pitt was -550 and is currently -499. You had to wager $550 to win $100 on Miami winning, but now you get a discount and can wager just $499 to win that same $100. Let's hope it reverses prior to kickoff.

Man, that was a huge help. Thank you for taking the time to share that information for me.

 

[Poptimus]

A couple other things I should have mentioned in my treatise of a post on line movement:

1. Line movement is important because it's premised on the fact that over the last 30 years, Vegas' closing line has been accurate exactly 50% of the time on average when it comes to efficient markets (e.g. the NFL, not Indian cricket matches), meaning if you're in Vegas right before kickoff, throw a dart at the board it doesn't matter, you have a 50% chance of winning on the pointspread at the close of any game. But since spreads move up and down all week long like stocks, you have the opportunity to wager on a game and beat the closing line, thus affording you >50% chance to win the bet. But if you're laying -110 to win 100, the break-even point is 52.38% to win. If you can win 53% of the time, don't bother. But if you can win 54% of the time, you can quit your job and do it full-time. That's how small the margin of error is. There's something called a half-point calculator you can Google and see the exact price for each half a point. Naturally, not all points are worth the same. In football, not surprisingly, the 3 and the 7 are the most valuable. The goal, as always, is to beat the closing line.

2. This point I cannot emphasize enough: the guys that have the ability to move numbers know there are guys that chase steam and bet games when they see spreads changing. And these guys are astute enough to manipulate the lines and bet games at prices they want. Take our game vs. Pitt for instance. The line dropped from Miami -14 to Miami -13.5 at Pinnacle. Why? Maybe because some sharp syndicate likes Miami to roll, but why lay 14 when you can lay 13? So they'll place maybe $20k or so on Pitt +14, moving the line down in hopes that by Friday morning it's now Pitt +13. And guess what they do then? They hammer Miami -13 with $250k or something of the sort across multiple sites/casinos within seconds of each other, often with just a bunch of clicks of a mouse. The line immediately climbs up to Miami -14.5 or Miami -15 and they gamed the game.

 

[The Owl]

Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.

You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."

I agree with what hurricane8915 wrote. When it comes to a pointspread, the vigorish or "vig" a/k/a "juice" is the price paid by the bettor. It's analogous to the bid-ask spread for stocks. So, in your example, Minnesota -3 +100, Detroit +3 -120, the pointspread is 3, but the price varies depending on whether you're betting the dog or the fave. If the final score is Vikings 23, Lions 20, then the Vikings won by the exact margin of the spread and everyone gets their money back. That is...everyone who laid 3 with Minnesota or took 3 with Detroit. That is why beating the closing line and getting the best price is imperative for someone to win long-term (which only 1% do).

If you snagged Minnesota -2.5 earlier in the week and someone else bet Minnesota -3 just before kickoff and Minnesota wins by exactly 3, you win and the other guy pushes.

Some casinos are notorious for not just booking bets, but making bets themselves. Pinnacle is notorious for this offshore and the Mirage is known for this in Vegas, as is South Point. What I mean by that is if you look at the screen (the list of the odds available around the world, available by Don Best or free versions at vegasinsider.com or sportsbookreview.com), you'll notice not all casinos offer the same odds. Usually you'll find a few that are offering a half point or even a full point off the consensus line. Smart gamblers will go out of their way to seek out those sites and the slow moving antelopes that adjust their lines more slowly than others. So if at most outs the line is Vikings -3, but you see Pinnacle offering Vikings -2.5 at higher juice, that tells you that Pinnacle wants you to bet the Vikings there. Why? Because they're offering you a free half point at higher juice. So what a lot of guys do is they see this (known as the "Pinny lean") and bet the opposite side -- Detroit +3 -- elsewhere. You wouldn't bet Detroit +2.5 at Pinnacle when you can get +3 at other outs.

There's a lot to digest when it comes to this stuff. OK, so the line moved. Was that predicated upon injury news and is just an adjustment? Or was it due to a large wager by a known winner? It's the latter that's important. And sites will move their lines sometimes just because they see other sites moving theirs. This is known as "moving on air" and should be ignored. I care about line movement when (a) there's no breaking injury news, (b) when the line moves (late moves are always more important than early for football since late money matters most), and (c) where is the line moving (i.e. is Pinnacle moving its number, or is it some scrub casino IDGAF about)?

The price on the ML for Miami to beat Pitt was -550 and is currently -499. You had to wager $550 to win $100 on Miami winning, but now you get a discount and can wager just $499 to win that same $100. Let's hope it reverses prior to kickoff.

Good breakdown. I would like to stress the importance of the bold. It is extremely important that if you want to win long term that you are consistently beating the closing line. You should have good CLV (Closing Line Value) on a high majority of your plays if you want to win consistently. If you are winning bets but you are not beating the closing line, you are most likely getting lucky and are in a lucky patch of variance. Trust me, the winning won't last very long if lines are moving against you. I honestly think less than 1% of betters can win long term. It is very very difficult to do. I have come across maybe a handful of actual winners in my life. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE WINNERS USES ADVANCED ALGORITHMS AND MATH MODELS. I have never heard of someone winning long term without the ability to build advanced and sharp algorithms and math models. If you think you can just look at spreads, final scores and some stats that are readily available and win long term you are in for a very rude awakening. This is very much an advanced math game.

Bankroll management is also extremely important. In theory, your bet risk should be determined by how much your bankroll is as well as your perceived edge on each individual bet. (Look up Kelly Criterion). Beginning bettors can use flat betting such as 1% of my bankroll or 2% of my bankroll per bet to keep it more simplified. You shouldn't be betting 50% of your bankroll on a play, this is an epic mistake and i severely doubt you have an edge big enough that justifies betting 50% of your bank roll. Remember VARIANCE happens to everybody INCLUDING SHARPS. Some sharps can lose 15+ bets in a row with the volume of bets they play. If you are consistently betting, variance is a mathematical fact that is bound to happen to you whether you are a winning bettor or not. This is why it is extremely important to have a good control of how much you are betting in relation to your bankroll amount.

 

[PlanoCane]

If we can't roll vs Pitt then, I'm seriously worried about us in the playoffs.

 

[ball915]

Miami is 1-4 ATS when a double digit favorite

 

[407cane]

We're wearing white tops orange pants black socks black shoes via equipment room Twitter

 

[Poptimus]

GuptaKnows, great post. As far as the "only 1% win" mention, I know a guy who used to be the head linesman at an offshore casino and he threw out that number one time to me. Was he being literal, I don't know. But I do know that he told me all of the offshore gambling sites profile their winners and it doesn't take them more than a few minutes to catch people chasing steam, which is pretty much the sports betting equivalent of counting cards. I had an account at Pinnacle (yes, they ban U.S. customers, but don't think it's not easy to get an account there or at Heritage or any other site that bans U.S. customers per DOJ warnings if you frequent the right spots), and after one month of winning each week I got called out for chasing steam. You can't do it online and you can't do it in Vegas, either. But I digress. Excellent point about money management, but the one area I disagree with you is on advanced math serving as the premise behind every winner. Billy Walters and some other syndicates I've read about don't rely on math, but they're the exceptions, not the rule. Check out the 60 Minutes Billy Walters episode on Youtube or read "Gaming the Game", it'll blow your mind. And go Canes, I want to see that spread rise above -14 by Friday morning.