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Opening line for Pitt, -14

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Their students are on break and their fans care about as much as ours do when we're 4-7. It's a neutral site game, if anything. And they have a QB who will look like Wimbush when we bring the pressure. We cover this easily.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
JgDaCane said:
Jax Cane said:
k9cane said:
Its funny but the cold weather of Pittsburgh hasn't really bothered Miami in the past.

Once you start hitting and tackling, guys get warmed up fairly quickly and get to playing football

I still recall that 2003 game at Heinz(final Big East game for UM) and it was absolutely frigid the whole weekend. And after the first drive(where Pitt marched for a TD) the rest of the game Miami dominated on both sides of the ball.
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Didnt our team come out two years ago up in Pitt without shirts on for the pregame...lol....weather will not be a problem.
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Yeah im pretty sure I remember Perryman. He looked like a superhero lol
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IIRC, that was the 2013 game(which was the day after Thanksgiving, also). Stacey Coley had a huge day with 3 TDs....
 
I was nervous about the uva game because i knew about Benkert’s ability. Pitt has no such qb.

This is Pitt’s bowl game, and Narduzzi is an emotional fiery guy. So he’ll have them pumped and jacked and playing like rabid dogs to start the game. But that’ll fizzle out after we bust them in the mouf a few times.

We should pull away.
 
Mid 40s and sunny, with not much wind. That actually sounds like **** near ideal football weather. Once our guys get warmed up, there should be no effect. And Black Friday, noon, I can't see a big Pitt crowd coming out for a meaningless game, so it shouldn't be this wild, hostile environment, either.

It could be one of these games where if we hit them a couple times early, they'll fold up shop right away. Almost think that if we win the toss, we should take the ball. I'm usually not in favor of doing that, especially on the road, but it could be the right play in this case.
 
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Some of you will say "When will Vegas learn, re: the Cardiac Canes?"

However, this is a spread we cover, and quite easily.
52-17 Canes.
 
Speaking of wild hostile crowds, the Canes fans are coming and they'll be very loud. :sneakiness:

LPK2006 said:
Mid 40s and sunny, with not much wind. That actually sounds like **** near ideal football weather. Once our guys get warmed up, there should be no effect. And Black Friday, noon, I can't see a big Pitt crowd coming out for a meaningless game, so it shouldn't be this wild, hostile environment, either.

It could be one of these games where if we hit them a couple times early, they'll fold up shop right away. Almost think that if we win the toss, we should take the ball. I'm usually not in favor of doing that, especially on the road, but it could be the right play in this case.
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I'd love to see a close-ish win at Pitt. Go into the ACCCG as big underdogs. Bigger Clemson is favored, the better ;-)
 
Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.
 
Poptimus said:
Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.
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You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
Poptimus said:
Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.
Click to expand...
You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."
Click to expand...

"-" numbers in the 100's are how much you would need to bet to win $100.
"+" numbers in the 100's are how much a $100 bet you would win.

The whole 9:2, 10:1, is easiest to think about in $100 incraments, so a $200 bet would win $900, a $100 bet would win $1,000, etc.

If you bet $120 on Detroit, they would have to lose by less than 3 points, and you would get $100 in winnings.
If you bet $100 on Min, they would have to win by 3.5 points, and you would get $100 in winnings.

Over 44.5, bet $110, get $100.
same for under.

Money line, gets rid of the spread, so you are just picking who wins the game, but your payouts get adjusted accordingly.

Hope that helps.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
Poptimus said:
Line dropped from Miami -14 to -13.5 at Pinnacle and down to -13 at Bookmaker. Still early and far from the closing line, but not a good sign so far. Clemson line edging in South Carolina's favor, too, but still at Clemson -14. Bama just went from -4 to -4.5 vs Auburn.

Miami/Pitt over/under went from 51 to 52.
Click to expand...
You’ve spoken with a bit of expertise on betting and I wanted to know if you can help me with understanding a few things. What does it mean when i see odds to win the championship like this (for example)?

AL 4:5
Clemson 9:2
Miami 10:1

Does the first number denote the payout and the second number the bet?

-So a winning AL bet is a 20% return?
- a winning Clemson bet is 450% return?
- winning Miami bet is 1000% return?

Also, the + and - . What would be the return for $100 bets for the below?

NFL Odds and Daily Lines - National Football League - ESPN
Westgate
-3 MIN: 100
+3 DET: -120

44.5 O/U
o: -110
u: -110

Money Line
MIN: -150
DET: +130

Started reading the below article and it had me wondering if I was thinking about it in the right way

Sportsbook directors don't make a habit of identifying their customers, and the name of the guy betting big on the World Series was not discussed. But everyone around town was talking about what he did to them.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, MGM Resorts, South Point, Station Casinos, Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and Wynn each reported taking large bets from the same bettor, referred to by some as "Bettor X."

Casinos ran background checks on Bettor X and found no concerns. He was in his 30s and respected for his UFC action, but he had not regularly bet baseball in the past. According to a source familiar with his betting history, he won 11 straight bets on UFC from late September through the first weekend of October at one sportsbook. It was just the beginning of his run.

The larger bets, peaking in the upper six figures, began with the World Series. He bet on Games 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, increasing the size of his bets after each game.

He won them all.

At some books, he simply handed back his winning ticket from the previous game, letting it all ride on the next game. Most books allowed him to bet only a certain amount before moving the odds. For example, at one shop he backed the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 at odds of +110, +105, even money, -105 and -110 for a total risk of just over $400,000.

"He just wanted to get down on certain games," Avello said. "He didn't care what the number was. He just wanted to get down. And he just didn't lose."

"The market price would be -110," Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said, "and the guy would be laying -140." Bettor X's largest wagers were reportedly as much as $800,000 and came on Game 6. Sources around town believe he got down for more than $3 million on the Dodgers in Game 6 -- and he wanted more.

"We have thresholds that we're willing to take risk to," Simbal said. "We have a general idea about how much money we'll be able to get back on the other side, so we were giving him as much as we could to get us to that number."

More than $1 million was bet on Game 6 at CG Technology alone, more than double the amount of money that was bet on Game 7 of the Cubs-Indians World Series. The Dodgers won Game 6 by a score of 3-1.

When it was over, sources familiar with the bettor's action estimated that he took Las Vegas for more than $10 million from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31. "I remember guys going on runs before," said Avello, "but not to this extent."
Click to expand...
I agree with what hurricane8915 wrote. When it comes to a pointspread, the vigorish or "vig" a/k/a "juice" is the price paid by the bettor. It's analogous to the bid-ask spread for stocks. So, in your example, Minnesota -3 +100, Detroit +3 -120, the pointspread is 3, but the price varies depending on whether you're betting the dog or the fave. If the final score is Vikings 23, Lions 20, then the Vikings won by the exact margin of the spread and everyone gets their money back. That is...everyone who laid 3 with Minnesota or took 3 with Detroit. That is why beating the closing line and getting the best price is imperative for someone to win long-term (which only 1% do).

If you snagged Minnesota -2.5 earlier in the week and someone else bet Minnesota -3 just before kickoff and Minnesota wins by exactly 3, you win and the other guy pushes.

Some casinos are notorious for not just booking bets, but making bets themselves. Pinnacle is notorious for this offshore and the Mirage is known for this in Vegas, as is South Point. What I mean by that is if you look at the screen (the list of the odds available around the world, available by Don Best or free versions at vegasinsider.com or sportsbookreview.com), you'll notice not all casinos offer the same odds. Usually you'll find a few that are offering a half point or even a full point off the consensus line. Smart gamblers will go out of their way to seek out those sites and the slow moving antelopes that adjust their lines more slowly than others. So if at most outs the line is Vikings -3, but you see Pinnacle offering Vikings -2.5 at higher juice, that tells you that Pinnacle wants you to bet the Vikings there. Why? Because they're offering you a free half point at higher juice. So what a lot of guys do is they see this (known as the "Pinny lean") and bet the opposite side -- Detroit +3 -- elsewhere. You wouldn't bet Detroit +2.5 at Pinnacle when you can get +3 at other outs.

There's a lot to digest when it comes to this stuff. OK, so the line moved. Was that predicated upon injury news and is just an adjustment? Or was it due to a large wager by a known winner? It's the latter that's important. And sites will move their lines sometimes just because they see other sites moving theirs. This is known as "moving on air" and should be ignored. I care about line movement when (a) there's no breaking injury news, (b) when the line moves (late moves are always more important than early for football since late money matters most), and (c) where is the line moving (i.e. is Pinnacle moving its number, or is it some scrub casino IDGAF about)?

The price on the ML for Miami to beat Pitt was -550 and is currently -499. You had to wager $550 to win $100 on Miami winning, but now you get a discount and can wager just $499 to win that same $100. Let's hope it reverses prior to kickoff.
 
Ammok said:
I'd love to see a close-ish win at Pitt. Go into the ACCCG as big underdogs. Bigger Clemson is favored, the better ;-)
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Nah, we need a resume builder. We need to go into the ACC title game without another close win. The last thing we need is the committee wondering if our 3 game stretch was real. Make it 4 strong games to close the season and we're good.
 
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