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Only 6 and 1/2 point favorites vs. UVA??

Betting spreads have zero to do with Ws, Ls, or "respect".

They have everything to do with money, and how much of it they can separate from suckers' wallets.
 
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The opening line is a guesstimate by odds makers but where the line goes from there is determined by money. As stated earlier, Vegas' goal is to have even money on both sides.
 
Rambodesambo said:
Mainline I don't think they are as bad as you think, and remember we didn't cover the spread against FSU @ HOME. We are on the road.
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I hear ya Rambo maybe so.

But I must say that I thought the spread against FSU was really ridiculous. No matter how down either team is...it's usually a tough close game so I wasn't buying it.

I think beating FSU in comeback style with no injuries energizes us more than making us want to coast or rest. We are in great shape physically, and should be in greater shape emotionally and psychologically. I think the FSU win was a signature moment. But I'm not a member of this team.

What can I say, .....it's MY opinion vs. the EXPERTS who are not alums, do this for a living, don't have an orange and green TV room, have no ax to grind and could really care less who wins.......guess if I were an outsider, I'd always believe and go with the EXPERTS. You'd certainly win more often than not

ONLY I'm not an outsider, I'm me with my history of following and being a Cane....and I think we easily beat the spread
 
Golden specialized in being UVA's *****. Just hope Right doesn't do the same. This team always plays like chit against these bourbon-soaked azzholes.
 
MainLineCane said:
They really haven't played anyone of note

Have a lot of respect for Vegas odd makers but I just don't see this being close
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Hope you're right! Meanwhile, a chance for you to "put your money where your mouth is" and make a tidy bundle, maybe donate to PanamaCity victims!
 
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mackjones said:
The Wise Guys make their money on the " 10% VIG " and all those frivolous EXOTIC wagers.
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Keep spouting that stupid crap enough times and maybe others will believe it. I'll break down how foolish your statement is:

If a bankroll is sufficient - and we all know Vegas has a sufficient bankroll - why would a bookie move a number that has attracted a large amount of squares? Vegas views each game as one part of a larger series, forming the long run. The casino knows it will win ~50% of those imbalanced games and therefore it plays out mathematically just as though the casino had every game balanced.

Your way with a 2-game scenario:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5

You are suggesting that casinos will call off $80k of its action and "guarantee" itself $1k profit.

Game 2:
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

You again suggest that casinos calls off $80k to guarantee just $1k on vig of $10k. So, according to you, casinos have zero risk and guarantee a grand total profit of $2,000 of $220,000, a hold of 1%. Wow.

The real way it's done:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

The casino keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the time, regardless how heavy or imbalanced the action is. It splits here, losing $79k on the UVA game and winning $89k on the VT game for a net profit of $10k of $220k, a net hold of 4.54%. 4.54% > 1%, chief.
 
Under Richt we usually start slow. I predict it’s within 7, either way at half, then pull away and win by 20
 
jkdood said:
Hope you're right! Meanwhile, a chance for you to "put your money where your mouth is" and make a tidy bundle, maybe donate to PanamaCity victims!
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You're right!! You're absolutely right!!

So I just came back from taking your advice to stop yapping and start driving across the bridge to Jersey ...and place my $$$bet that Miami will cover.

I rarely bet BUT when I do, I never bet more than I can afford to lose, but enough to make me real happy .... I'm feeling very good about this.
  • Sure UVA played us close last year but that QB Benkert who played lights out against us has graduated. If he was coming back I may have been worried. But he's gone
  • We've added a significant difference maker to our offense with: Kosi
  • We've added a significant difference maker to our defense with: Willis
  • NO major injuries after 6 games coming off a tough game with FSU
  • Kosi has already proved that he has ice water in his veins so I seriously doubt he'll get rattled in 1st away start
  • Our 3rd down completion % is up significantly
  • Our 3rd down conversion rate is 1st in nation
In short, IMO this Miami team is much better than we were last year and the offense w/ Kosi plays with a lot more determination....and I don't think UVA is as good as they were last year.

I'm looking forward to being real happy tomorrow night :nevreness:
 
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Poptimus said:
Keep spouting that stupid crap enough times and maybe others will believe it. I'll break down how foolish your statement is:

If a bankroll is sufficient - and we all know Vegas has a sufficient bankroll - why would a bookie move a number that has attracted a large amount of squares? Vegas views each game as one part of a larger series, forming the long run. The casino knows it will win ~50% of those imbalanced games and therefore it plays out mathematically just as though the casino had every game balanced.

Your way with a 2-game scenario:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5

You are suggesting that casinos will call off $80k of its action and "guarantee" itself $1k profit.

Game 2:
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

You again suggest that casinos calls off $80k to guarantee just $1k on vig of $10k. So, according to you, casinos have zero risk and guarantee a grand total profit of $2,000 of $220,000, a hold of 1%. Wow.

The real way it's done:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

The casino keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the time, regardless how heavy or imbalanced the action is. It splits here, losing $79k on the UVA game and winning $89k on the VT game for a net profit of $10k of $220k, a net hold of 4.54%. 4.54% > 1%, chief.
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I think he’s talking about the guys who run numbers, like Vinny the Nose, not a casino.
 
MikeCane18 said:
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 outright losses the the week after FSU over the last five years. Couple that with our OL issues and RS Freshman first road start. Vegas knows what it's doing.
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Yep, and we generally do not play well in Charlottesville for whatever reason. Plus no Langham and limited JT4 (at least that is the rumor). Also, UVA is not a terrible team. I expect a relatively close game. Just win.
 
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