Assuming Mensah is QB1, I think the absolute reg season floor is 10 wins. The key to making a real run this year is to not have more than one loss going into the ACCCHGM (yes, we will make it and win it this year). If we can get out of the reg season 11-1 (with the most likely loss coming at ND), we'll be in a great position for a playoff run.
Having said all of that, if Mensah is QB1, I don't just concede the ND game and think we'll have a great chance to grab one from ND with Baby Jesus scoring at least one TD in front of TD Jesus.
It's very likely that we'll be undefeated going into the ND game, but I don't know when that Clemson game is. Dabo has been doing some soul searching it sounds like and he may have them boys ready when we visit Death Valley.